NBA Offseason Roundup: How the Biggest Moves Impact Fantasy Value

NBA Offseason Roundup: How the Biggest Moves Impact Fantasy Value

This article is part of our NBA Offseason series.

As a humming offseason comes to an end, many teams will enter the 2022-23 season with a revamped squad. Looking at teams trying to make a leap, let's evaluate who changed, how much, and what it means for key contributors on each roster. What new players might crack the Top 150 Fantasy Basketball Rankings for 2022-23?

The Jalen Brunson Effect

Brunson joins the Knicks on a $104 million deal, vacating over 3,100 minutes from Dallas' 2020-21 lineups. Brunson trailed only Jayson Tatum, Mikal Bridges, and Dorian Finney-Smith in total minutes played last season. 

Consequences for Dallas include: Another gigantic workload is ensured for Finney-Smith. Ditto for Reggie Bullock, who averaged a whopping 39.3 minutes per game in the playoffs. Both are stellar producers of threes.

Dinwiddie will directly fill Brunson's void. The 29-year-old is a sleeper heading into his first full season in Dallas. Dinwiddie underwent a three-point revolution in 41 total games with the Mavs, connecting on 41.0 percent of his threes -- easily a career best.

Consequences for New York include: Immanuel Quickley's emergence is partially stifled. He's talented but stuck in a logjam with Brunson, Derrick Rose, Quentin Grimes and Evan Fournier. He's a stashable long-term option in keeper leagues, and there's always the chance he gets unleashed elsewhere via a Donovan Mitchell blockbuster deal.

As for Brunson himself: He is that guy. He's a career 37.3 percent three-point shooter. He averaged 20.4 points, 7.5 assists and 3.9 rebounds in 17 games

As a humming offseason comes to an end, many teams will enter the 2022-23 season with a revamped squad. Looking at teams trying to make a leap, let's evaluate who changed, how much, and what it means for key contributors on each roster. What new players might crack the Top 150 Fantasy Basketball Rankings for 2022-23?

The Jalen Brunson Effect

Brunson joins the Knicks on a $104 million deal, vacating over 3,100 minutes from Dallas' 2020-21 lineups. Brunson trailed only Jayson Tatum, Mikal Bridges, and Dorian Finney-Smith in total minutes played last season. 

Consequences for Dallas include: Another gigantic workload is ensured for Finney-Smith. Ditto for Reggie Bullock, who averaged a whopping 39.3 minutes per game in the playoffs. Both are stellar producers of threes.

Dinwiddie will directly fill Brunson's void. The 29-year-old is a sleeper heading into his first full season in Dallas. Dinwiddie underwent a three-point revolution in 41 total games with the Mavs, connecting on 41.0 percent of his threes -- easily a career best.

Consequences for New York include: Immanuel Quickley's emergence is partially stifled. He's talented but stuck in a logjam with Brunson, Derrick Rose, Quentin Grimes and Evan Fournier. He's a stashable long-term option in keeper leagues, and there's always the chance he gets unleashed elsewhere via a Donovan Mitchell blockbuster deal.

As for Brunson himself: He is that guy. He's a career 37.3 percent three-point shooter. He averaged 20.4 points, 7.5 assists and 3.9 rebounds in 17 games without Luka Doncic last season. Similar levels of All-Star-caliber production in New York are possible.

The Dejounte Murray Effect

Atlanta adds Dejounte Murray, who could be in store for his most efficient season yet. Murray shot 46.3 percent from the field on 18.3 shots per game in 2021-22. That volume will decrease, but by playing alongside Trae Young, he should have a ton of advantage in carving paths to the rim.

Young could reach new scoring heights with increased off-ball looks. Usage will be abundant. Assist production may fluctuate on a game-to-game basis, but both star guards hovering around 7-8 assists per night is possible. Young had 43 games of 10-plus assists last season, while Murray had 30.

Clint Capela and John Collins could re-enact the "Lob City" Clippers from the mid-2010s. The backcourt will maximize the big-man duo. DeAndre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic are the final notable contributors. Both should replicate similar types of production to 2021-22. 

Meanwhile, in San Antonio: Expect yet another uptick in production from Keldon Johnson -- sneaky-prolific three-point shooter, rebounder, and turnover-averse 22-year-old. His volume is set to climb for a fourth straight season, and Johnson has gained additional reps throughout his young career through time with USA Basketball. The Kentucky product averaged 17.0 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 75 games last season. He signed a four-year, $74 million extension this offseason.

Expect another uptick in production from Devin Vassell -- a two-way asset with speed capable of stuffing the box score. He's a versatile scorer and had impressive growth last season. He increased both his usage and efficiency as a sophomore and ranked 121st in per-game fantasy production.

The new-look Minnesota Timberwolves

An Anthony Edwards superstar-eruption is in the cards. He's tasted the playoffs, Minnesota has built a contender around him, and the 21-year-old improved in every statistical category last season. That was highlighted by a 44/36/77 percent shooting line en route to 21.3 points per game.

With Rudy Gobert arriving, Karl-Anthony Towns can be afforded fewer defensive duties, which should help him pick up fewer fouls. Towns' scoring will dip, and Gobert's rebounding will decline, but both should replicate stellar 2021-22 seasons. Gobert is coming off a campaign of 15.6 points on a league-leading 71.3 percent shooting, adding 14.7 rebounds per night. Similar to Utah's style, Minnesota has no elite facilitator, but expecting 14-and-10 with two blocks from Gobert is a safe floor. This is an extremely talented duo that will create matchup nightmares, even when sharing the court together. 

Kyle Anderson will assume a healthy role as a defender and rotational scorer. Ditto for Taurean Prince. A Jalen McDaniels breakout is possible -- the 6-foot-9, 21-year-old is teeming with two-way upside. With the exodus of Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt, all three wings profile as streaming candidates throughout the season.

D'Angelo Russell is the final key piece. Russell struggled with his efficiency last season but reached new heights as a passer (7.1 assists, 2.5 turnovers -- both career bests). It was also his first fully healthy season since 2019. Edwards may handle the ball more, but Russell still faces very little competition for point guard duties with Patrick Beverley now in Utah. Look for Minnesota to run the wheels off in a contract year. He's a viable buy-low in fantasy.

Portland check-in 

The Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons partnership should produce similar shades of Lillard and CJ McCollum. Both operate best with the ball but are plenty talented to score at will alongside each other. Lillard battled injuries throughout last season, ending in abdominal surgery. Portland extended Simons on a four-year, $100 million deal after the 23-year-old's multi-level scoring skills became undeniable. Once entrenched as a starter, Simons averaged 23.4 points, 5.8 assists and 2.7 rebounds.

Jusuf Nurkic was also extended, receiving a four-year, $70 million deal.

Acquired in a blockbuster deal with Detroit, Jerami Grant joins Portland as an offensive creator. He averaged 19.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.9 steals-plus-blocks across 47 contests for Detroit -- a destination where Grant was a primary offensive force throughout much of his tenure. Fueled by Grant's proven scoring, plus the potential for efficiency on a contending squad, the upcoming season could be Grant's most productive.

Having freshly completed a total revamp, this Portland roster is deep and talented. If injuries strike the starters, Gary Payton, Keon Johnson, Drew Eubanks and Trendon Watford have all showcased appealing fantasy profiles. Eubanks and Watford especially, given Nurkic's history of foot/leg injuries. Shaedon Sharpe must also be mentioned. If healthy, the No. 7 overall pick has rotation upside.

Zion & New Orleans

Inked to a five-year, $193 million rookie max extension, Zion Williamson joins the fray. As a 20-year-old across 61 games in 2020-21, he averaged 27.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals/blocks per game, while shooting 61.1 percent from the field. Read that again.

Oddsmakers have New Orleans as a middle-of-the-pack team in the 2022-23 NBA Championship Odds at +3500, but there's clear upside for a strong season for this talented team.

A healthy Williamson will join Brandon Ingram as another go-to scoring option in New Orleans. In 2021-22, Ingram suffered a drastic down year from beyond the arc, shooting 32.1 percent on 4.1 attempts per game after connecting on 38.1 percent over the last four seasons. Ultimately, it didn't matter. Ingram maintained his overall career efficiency due to excellence in the midrange and getting to the hoop. He should be regarded as a premier scorer in the league and a fantasy star, and there's bounce-back potential. The 2021-2022 campaign yielded a career-best 2.07 assist-to-turnover ratio for Ingram as well. 

Lottery selection Dyson Daniels and offseason development from Herb Jones will anchor the backcourt defensively. Floor general CJ McCollum performed at a career-best level in New Orleans. He averaged 24.3 points on 49.3 percent shooting from the field and 39.4 percent from beyond the arc. He did so while collecting 5.8 assists versus just 2.2 turnovers per game. Daniels doesn't project as an impact scorer out of the gate, so McCollum should retain a healthy amount of point guard duties.

Trey Murphy is a breakout candidate who was one of my NBA Summer League Takeaways. He's worthy of a late-round flier in deeper leagues and should be monitored all season.

Jonas Valanciunas cooled significantly down the stretch but remains a dominant rebounder. His three-point shooting outburst should be regarded as a mirage, as the seven-footer regressed to a 27.0 percent clip from December onward. A healthy Williamson will lead to more small-ball in New Orleans, so Valanciunas' stock is down.

Final touches in Denver?

Will Barton started 71 games and averaged 32.1 minutes per contest for Denver last season. Monte Morris started 74 games and averaged 29.9 minutes for Denver last season. Both are gone, with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown brought to fill the void. The two should be great targets for two-time MVP Nikola Jokic -- currently tied for fifth at +1200 in the 2023 NBA MVP Odds.

Caldwell-Pope averaged 13.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals for Washington last season. He's shot 39.5 percent from beyond the arc and 44.3 percent from the field across his past three seasons. He was quietly a fantasy asset last season and should produce on similar levels in Denver. If Jamal Muray is eased into action/load managed, KCP will play a significant role.

Brown is less of a shooter but connected on 40.4 percent of his triples on 1.3 attempts per game last season. The 25-year-old logged just 24.6 minutes per game for Brooklyn but should see an uptick as he and KCP lead the defensive wing cast.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Henry Weinberg
Henry is a sports writer and analyst, specializing in NBA analysis, CBB coverage and draft prep. He's a freelance scout, passionate baseball fan, elite fantasy football player and former Butler Bulldog.
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