Formula 1 Rolex Belgian Grand Prix 2024
Location: Stvelot, Belgium
Course: Circuit de Spa Francorchamps
Course Length: 7.004 KM
Laps: 44
Belgian Grand Prix Race Preview
We haven't quite reached the 2021 levels of anticipation each race weekend, but this is the most compelling season since then. McLaren has proven capable of challenging Red Bull on a weekly basis and perhaps even surpassing them on raw pace. The intrigue extends to the top four teams. Ferrari once looked like the top challenger to Red Bull but has since slumped considerably, even slipping behind Mercedes in recent races.
Things off the track are also heating up. Esteban Ocon is now a confirmed driver with Haas, and he'll pair with young phenom Oliver Bearman. That leaves a seat at each of Alpine, Mercedes, Audi and Williams, most of which should be resolved within the next month or so. Carlos Sainz Jr. is the main domino that needs to fall for the rest of the market, though Sergio Perez could join him in short order. The number two driver at Red Bull is under immense pressure as he remains in a mid-season, and now lengthy, slump. His fate may already be sealed, but a good weekend could help his case to stick at Red Bull for the second half of 2024 and all of 2025.
Key Stats at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps
Races: 56
Won From Pole: 22
Winners from top-five starters: 49
Winners from top-10 starters: 53
Previous 10 Spa-Francorchamps Winners
2023- Max Verstappen
2022: Max Verstappen
2021: Max Verstappen
2020: Lewis Hamilton
2019: Charles Leclerc
2018: Sebastian Vettel
2017: Lewis Hamilton
2016: Nico Rosberg
2015: Lewis Hamilton
2014: Daniel Ricciardo
Spa remains an iconic circuit with the combination of the Eau Rogue and Raidillon turns providing both compelling races and camera angles for F1 fans. The danger of the sport will also be at the forefront of everyone's minds for the foreseeable future, as Antonie Hubert and Dilano Van't Hoff each have lost their life while racing at the circuit since 2019.
There are a number of factors that will make this race unique. Weather isn't unique to the circuit itself, but rain appears to be a near certainty for qualifying. The field will already be turned upside down to some degree, as Max Verstappen will have a 10-place grid penalty for using a fifth internal combustion engine. Meanwhile, Yuki Tsunoda has multiple penalties for new parts and will start from the back of the grid. That will likely knock Tsunoda out of points contention and will almost certainly cost Verstappen a chance at victory – perhaps even a podium.
One more variable to consider is that the track has been resurfaced significantly across the last two calendar years. Spa has traditionally been tough on tires, but that could change this year and will be worth monitoring. The consistent aspect from last season's race is the tire compounds that the teams have to work with. They are sent with C2, C3 and C4 compounds, the middle tier, though how they are deployed could change from past seasons
DraftKings Value Picks for the Belgian Grand Prix
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Lando Norris - $13,000
Oscar Piastri - $10,800
Tier 2 Values
Lewis Hamilton - $10,000
George Russell - $9,600
Charles Leclerc - $8,800
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $8,200
Tier 3 Values
Sergio Perez - $7,000
Fernando Alonso - $6,000
Lance Stroll - $5,200
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,000
Tier 4 Values
Daniel Ricciardo - $4,000
Esteban Ocon - $3,800
Valtteri Bottas - $3,600
Constructor Values
McLaren- $12,000
Mercedes - $11,000
Ferrari - $9,700
Aston Martin – $4,200
Haas- $3,200
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Belgian Grand Prix
Captain – Oscar Piastri - $16,200
Sergio Perez - $7,000
Lance Stroll - $5,200
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,000
Daniel Ricciardo - $4,000
Constructor- McLaren - $12,000
There's really no question about how to build the top end of lineups, as McLaren has the combination of a competitive car and a dominant driver lineup. The choice will be between building through Norris and Piastri. Norris would be my preference, but it will take several extremely cheap options to build, and I'd prioritize McLaren as a constructor over either of the individual drivers from the team. That points to Piastri as the captain.
For those willing to bet on some chaos, building through Mercedes does offer a cheaper alternative. That would allow the possibility of building through more of the elite four teams, specifically mixing in one of the Ferrari drivers. By building through McLaren, the only driver available, without significant concessions, from one of the elite four teams is Perez. If he can avoid a mistake in qualifying, this should be a weekend where he can beat Verstappen, giving him a five-point advantage over his typical projection.
The story is similar for Ricciardo. His own form has fluctuated significantly from race to race, but he should defeat Tsunoda given the latter's penalty. Bottas is the cheapest option for a floor of five points given the likelihood of him beating Zhou Guanyu, though Ricciardo has a chance of scoring points while Bottas likely does not. That makes Ricciardo the choice.
Stroll and Hulkenberg are the mid-tier options. The logic for Hulkenberg is fairly straightforward. He has beaten Kevin Magnussen in all but one race this season and has finished worse than 11th only twice. Stroll got points controversially last week by defying team orders, but he's been in strong form for the last several races. He's reached Q3 and also has points in two of his last three grand prix.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Belgian Grand Prix
Outright Winner: Lando Norris (-105), Oscar Piastri (+350)
Podium Finish: George Russell (+130), Lewis Hamilton (+300)
Top-Six Finish: Sergio Perez (-115)
Points Finish: Fernando Alonso/Lance Stroll (-185), Nico Hulkenberg (+120), Daniel Ricciardo (+270)
We've covered McLaren as the favorite, but I'd be inclined to take Piastri at the current values. Even if both McLaren reach the podium, the third position is wide open with Verstappen's grid penalty. I'd expect one of the Mercedes to take advantage of the opportunity, with Hamilton currently providing more value.
Perez will have a significant advantage over Verstappen to start the weekend, meaning he'll need to beat one Ferrari, Mercedes or McLaren to realistically have a shot to finish inside the top six. I'd like him a bit longer odds, but this would be the weekend to back him.
Verstappen is very likely to recover to reach a points finish, but Tsunoda is not. That creates some ambiguity for a points finish. Both Aston Martin should reach points as a result. Ricciardo is priced as a longshot, but he has finished in points in two of his last five races and has consistently finished inside the top 13. With some of the projected mixup in the field, he offers nice value.
