This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Someone on Twitter suggested I switch things up process-wise, but I told him I've been at this more than 20 years, and while I'm always open to tweaking things, it's only four bad weeks.
This week, I especially like the Giants, Seahawks, Texans, Eagles and Falcons. I hate my Ravens and Packers picks and am shaky on the Cowboys and Steelers.
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Giants +16.5 at Patriots
This is probably the right line given all the injuries to Giants skill players, but I'll take the points. The Pats offense is dink and dunk, and they don't have a Dalvin Cook type to gash them for huge gains. Plus weather could be an issue.
Patriots 20 - 6
Panthers -2 at Buccaneers
I made this game Panthers minus one, so I'm getting it at a point better than my line. But this is a coin flip. Take the Bucs.
Panthers 24 - 23
Bengals +11.5 at Ravens
I made this 13.5, so I'm on the Ravens, but I don't feel great about it. The Bengals have a professional quarterback, and the Ravens defense is average right now.
Ravens 30 - 17
Seahawks -1 at Browns
I made this minus three,