This week is a bit tough, with a smaller player pool of only four teams. I think the winning formula for this week is rostering a third wide receiver or bottom-tier tight end who surprises by scoring double-digit fantasy points (think Allen Lazard last week).
Conference Championship Sunday
Quarterbacks
Starting with the early quarterback spot, I actually think Tom Brady ($7,800) is the more attractive of the options, given his salary cap hit is $900 cheaper than Aaron Rodgers. Vegas has Brady throwing for 10 more yards than Rodgers and their touchdown passes have similar odds.
The truth is if you're doing multiple lineups in GPPs this weekend, it makes sense to submit a lineup with each of the four quarterbacks. However, I like the two quarterbacks in the late game the best. I don't think the Chiefs will run Patrick Mahomes ($9,000) much in this game, while Josh Allen ($8,500) should be good for at least five or six fantasy points with his legs. Allen has been lethal with his arm this season, and he has the best rushing touchdown odds of any of the four quarterbacks this weekend. He's my pick for cash games. And then...there's Patrick Mahomes. He may be low-owned in tournaments coming off an injury and with his high salary. He's always in play and a stack with him, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is never a bad idea in any format if you can fill in the other spots cheaply.
Running Backs
This week is a bit tough, with a smaller player pool of only four teams. I think the winning formula for this week is rostering a third wide receiver or bottom-tier tight end who surprises by scoring double-digit fantasy points (think Allen Lazard last week).
Conference Championship Sunday
Quarterbacks
Starting with the early quarterback spot, I actually think Tom Brady ($7,800) is the more attractive of the options, given his salary cap hit is $900 cheaper than Aaron Rodgers. Vegas has Brady throwing for 10 more yards than Rodgers and their touchdown passes have similar odds.
The truth is if you're doing multiple lineups in GPPs this weekend, it makes sense to submit a lineup with each of the four quarterbacks. However, I like the two quarterbacks in the late game the best. I don't think the Chiefs will run Patrick Mahomes ($9,000) much in this game, while Josh Allen ($8,500) should be good for at least five or six fantasy points with his legs. Allen has been lethal with his arm this season, and he has the best rushing touchdown odds of any of the four quarterbacks this weekend. He's my pick for cash games. And then...there's Patrick Mahomes. He may be low-owned in tournaments coming off an injury and with his high salary. He's always in play and a stack with him, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is never a bad idea in any format if you can fill in the other spots cheaply.
Running Backs
Between the running backs playing in this game, I prefer Aaron Jones ($8,000) over Leonard Fournette ($7,200), Ronald Jones ($5,600) or either of the other Green Bay running backs. Ronald Jones wasn't listed on the injury report, and I like him a lot as a punt play at either the second running back spot or flex, given his salary. Before last week, he had three straight games of at least 13.8 fantasy points, and he works for both cash and GPPs. Jamaal Williams ($5,000) and AJ Dillon ($4,700) are worth a mention, but it's tough to read the tea leaves on either being overly successful Sunday.
If you're feeling lucky, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,200) is your guy if he's active. The Bills have struggled against the run this season, and it seems that if the Ravens hadn't abandoned it, they might have won last week. Devin Singletary ($5,800) as the main Bills' running back isn't a bad option if you're looking for a safe floor of six to eight points. Of course, don't expect him to get the goal line work, as Josh Allen will either run it in or throw it for the score. Darrel Williams ($6,000) is the only other running back to peak my interest in this game, but he's best left for tournament play with production being hit-or-miss over the last four games with a limited ceiling.
Wide Receivers
It's tough to fade Stefon Diggs ($8,300) who has had 20.2 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games. The targets will be there from Josh Allen, and there's a good argument that the Chiefs are his best matchup in recent weeks. I would use either Diggs or Tyreek Hill ($8,400) if you're planning on using multiple lineups in a GPP. Hill has slightly better odds to score a touchdown but isn't expected to get the yardage Diggs should get according to their prop lines.
In a large GPP, I feel like the cheap wide receiver will be the winning difference this weekend. Guys I'm taking a look at who fit that mold include Tyler Johnson ($4,600), Scotty Miller ($4,900), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,500), John Brown ($5,600) and Sammy Watkins ($5,400, if active). All of the players listed have an upside to go over 10 fantasy points and be the difference maker Sunday.
Tight Ends
For cash games, I think you have to build your lineup around Travis Kelce ($8,700). The discrepancy between him and the rest of the field at the position is too big, as Vegas has him penciled in for more than 15 fantasy points. His yardage prop (94.5 receiving yards) is the same as Stefon Diggs, and more than Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. Kelce also has a better than 50/50 chance to score a touchdown, and guys like Robert Tonyan (34.5 receiving yards) and Rob Gronkowski (28.5 receiving yards) show why it's worth paying up here.
Of course, anything can happen in a football game, and it's wise to be the salmon swimming upstream in tournaments. Robert Tonyan ($5,700), Rob Gronkowski ($5,200) and Cameron Brate ($5,200) are the three I would consider for tournaments, although it's tough to see either of the three going for more than 50 yards and a score, elevating them to double-digit fantasy points. If I had to pick one, it would be Tonyan, although Gronk finding the end zone twice wouldn't be a surprise either.
Defense
Looking at both games, none of these teams really has a great matchup defensively. It's not a surprise the Packers ($4,400) have the heftiest salary cap hit given they're home and weather might be a factor for Tampa Bay. The Bills ($3,400) might be the play here with Mahomes banged up and committing four interceptions and three fumbles over his last four games. I really think the position is a crapshoot this week, as any of the four teams could step up and be the best of the group.
Recap
I'm likely starting a foundation of Josh Allen, Travis Kelce, Ronald Jones and the Bills defense. Building around that, it's possible to take two of the three between Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and Aaron Jones and still have more than $5,500 to use in the last three spots. Devin Singletary makes sense from a floor perspective in cash as well. From there, I'd gamble on the second/third wide receivers discussed using at least one of the guys from Tampa.
