This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for the Atlanta Falcons vs. the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills stumbled over an unforgiving speed bump in Week 5, losing at home to the hated division-rival New England Patriots and finding themselves in need of some repairs in their attempt to claim a Super Bowl berth. The Buffalo offense will always remain somewhat inevitable under Josh Allen's direction, so even though the Falcons are at home, and even though the Atlanta pass rush is the best it has been since any time anyone can remember, the assumption is that the Buffalo machine will get back into its groove at the expense of the Falcons on Monday night.
The over/under is 50.0 and the Bills are favored by 4.0 points.
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen ($11400 DK, $14000 FD) is arguably the most dangerous fade in the single-game slate genre, both because he's generally regarded as the fantasy QB1 and because so much of his production can occur on the ground specifically. The Atlanta pass rush has looked excellent to this point in the year, but the Buffalo offensive line rarely loses and Allen can make plays against pressure as well as anyone. Even against a tough Atlanta defense, fading Allen would be an aggressive strategy.
Michael Penix ($9000 DK, $11000 FD) bounced back in his last start before the bye, but things were bad enough beforehand that it's difficult to tell where Penix is really at. The Buffalo pass defense is generally better than its run defense, in any case, and without Darnell Mooney the Falcons are thin at wide receiver in a way that could dictate a run-heavy game plan.
RUNNING BACK
Bijan Robinson ($11200 DK, $12800 FD) is probably an advised pick in this game, because he's a major dual threat from scrimmage and the Bills run defense has been rather poor so far in 2025. No matter how the Falcons conduct their offense in this game, Robinson will be a central feature and one capable of explosive numbers. Particularly given the thin state of the Falcons wideouts, it might make sense to consider Tyler Allgeier ($4400 DK, $5000 FD) even on a ticket that features Robinson – the Falcons like to get Allgeier involved as a general rule, and with no Darnell Mooney there is slack that falls on the ground game.
James Cook ($10200 DK, $12000 FD) is not the easiest fade, even after a down game against the Patriots in Week 4. Cook was rolling in the four games before then, and he'll certainly bounce back at some point. Just the same, the Falcons defense has been good against the run this year, and Allen is always a candidate to poach a substantial share of the team rushing production. Ty Johnson ($1400 DK, $2000 FD) is the RB2 most weeks, because Ray Davis ($2400 DK, $2400 FD) is only expected to play in the event that Cook is resting or unavailable.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Drake London ($9200 DK, $10200 FD) is a very good player locked into a high target share, and the Buffalo cornerbacks are definitely beatable. London isn't a lock for a cashing game, but when his numbers disappoint it's almost never his fault. If London has a bad game then the Falcons are in a difficult spot. Kyle Pitts ($5800 DK, $5800 FD) might function something like Atlanta's WR2 in this game with Darnell Mooney out. Casey Washington ($1000 DK, $1400 FD) is a tempting bargain pick – the more Pitts plays, the less room there is for Ray-Ray McCloud ($2800 DK, $3000 FD) in the slot. Washington is the one more likely to play on the boundary, which is to say the more Pitts plays the more Washington might play.
Keon Coleman ($7800 DK, $6000 FD) is a candidate to see shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell, though even if so it wouldn't necessarily be insurmountable for Coleman. Khalil Shakir ($7600 DK, $9400 FD) likely has the higher floor all the same, as Shakir has been automatic for years from the slot.
Joshua Palmer ($3000 DK, $4400 FD) probably carries a worse projection than tight end Dalton Kincaid ($7400 DK, $8400 FD), who the Bills might try to match up with undersized rookie slot corner Billy Bowman. Dawson Knox ($1600 DK, $1800 FD) and Jackson Hawes ($600 DK, $1600 FD) are blocking-oriented punt plays at tight end, while Tyrell Shavers and Elijah Moore ($1200 DK, $3800 FD) are the punt plays at receiver for Buffalo.
KICKER
Parker Romo ($4800 DK, $6400 FD) is probably not a conventionally strong pick as the underdog kicker. Romo is not exactly proven, moreover, and it's possible that he'll prove himself a substandard starting kicker.
Matt Prater ($5000 DK, $6800 FD) isn't a starting kicker normally, either, yet as the kicker for the favorite his projection is reasonably good and he has so far made 10 of 11 field goal attempts for the Bills.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bills ($4000 DK, $7200 FD) are clear favorites even on the road, and Michael Penix is far from a proven starting quarterback. It's not outlandish to suggest the Buffalo defense might get the better of Penix in this game. Just the same, the Buffalo run defense has been poor this year and Bijan Robinson/Tyler Allgeier are capable of doing major damage to any team that can't stop the run. Even if Penix struggles, the Atlanta rushing attack might be able to score multiple touchdowns on its own.
The Falcons ($3400 DK, $5600 FD) would likely need to pull off a shocking upset or at least come close to it to prove an advisable play on this slate. There are enough players with substantial projections otherwise, and among the bargain options it's probably not best to target the unit going against Josh Allen. Then again, the ownership should be close to minimal, so if Allen has a trainwreck game the Falcons investors would have very few people in their enviable boat.
