Both the Vikings (1-0) and Falcons (0-1) found themselves in down-to-the-wire Week 1 matchups against fellow divisional favorites in their respective divisions, but the Vikings got the win (27-24) in Chicago while the Falcons (23-20) lost at home on a missed 44-yard field goal.
The Vikings were rewarded with a return trip home, where they now face the reeling and traveling Falcons. Atlanta needs to start winning to remain in contention of the NFC South, but the opposing defense and venue Sunday night couldn't be much more hostile. The Vikings are favored by 3.5 points and the over/under is set at 44.5
This article will break down the matchup as a single-game fantasy slate, outlining the potential Sunday Night Football DFS strategies for the game.
QUARTERBACK
The pressure is on for Michael Penix ($9600 DK, $11400 FD), who hits the road at 0-1 to face one of the most ferocious defenses in the NFL. It remains to be seen how destabilizing the loss of right tackle Kaleb McGary might prove to the Falcons offense, but that was supposed to be Penix's blindside blocker – now it's Elijah Wilkerson. Penix's fantasy investors can find some reassurance in that the Falcons called a pass-happy offense in Week 1, throwing it 42 times versus just 22 called carries, but against the Vikings it would be reasonable if the Falcons sought to hide Penix a bit more from an unforgiving Minnesota front seven.
J.J. McCarthy ($9400 DK, $11200 FD) faces a lot of pressure in his own right – the 10th overall pick two spots after Penix – though McCarthy's circumstances are slightly different given that he's riding the momentum of a thrilling but improbable late-game comeback win on the road in his first NFL start. McCarthy and the Vikings were lucky to win, though, scoring 21 of their points in the 27-24 win during the fourth quarter. McCarthy for his own part struggled badly early on, clearly flustered at the time, but somehow the switch flip just in time as he completed eight of his final 11 passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns while running for the game-winning third.
Although 20 passes isn't much and McCarthy was brutal until the fourth quarter, the way the game ended was encouraging enough and playing at home might let him play with better initial composure than he did in Chicago. The Bears were without their two standout corners Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, so venue aside the matchup ideally wouldn't have been so challenging either way. To be fair to McCarthy, the Vikings were without standout left tackle Christian Darrisaw in Week 1, but they won't have him in this game, either.
RUNNING BACK
Bijan Robinson ($12000 DK, $13800 FD) is both expensive and likely a chalky pick, yet it's probably still not advisable to fade him much if at all. The Falcons might do so badly that they barely move the ball at all, but if that happens Robinson will still likely see so much usage that he'll be a candidate to seize the majority of Atlanta's production from scrimmage, not to mention the points from his receptions. Picking Robinson doesn't mean you need to fade backup Tyler Allgeier ($3000 DK, $4200 FD) – the Falcons prefer to see the two coexist given that Allgeier is overqualified as a backup – but the Vikings run defense is likely tough and it might require some volume to wear them down over the course of the game.
It would be a bit of a gamble to guess whether the Falcons can establish that volume – if they fall behind it might be difficult to pull off, especially if the Vikings make the yardage scarce. Again, this is more a concern for Allgeier, because Robinson's pass-catching usage makes him minimally dependent on rushing production for fantasy viability.
Aaron Jones ($7600 DK, $9600 FD) was one of the heroes for Minnesota in Week 1, tying the team lead with 44 receiving yards and a crucial touchdown while catching all three of his targets. Jones saw a more limited role on the ground, turning just eight carries into 23 yards, but if Jones continues to see a double-digit target share percentage then he might not be so dependent on rushing production to prove a cashing-viable pick. If the Vikings move the ball well then it might carve out more room for Jordan Mason ($6600 DK, $7000 FD) to coexist with Jones. Indeed, if the Vikings win this game it could easily prove reasonable to pick Jones and Mason on the same roster after Mason led the Vikings with 68 yards on 15 carries against the Bears, though Mason saw only one target.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Justin Jefferson ($11800 DK, $13600 FD) is never a safe fade on single-game slates, and this matchup is no exception. With that said, this is probably one of the more unstable moments in Jefferson's NFL career so far. McCarthy remains a question mark, Darrisaw's absence could matter, and the Vikings have no established WR2 to dilute the coverage attention Jefferson sees. The Chicago game arguably demonstrated this, yet in that game too he was still not a safe fade, even in his lesser form.
T.J. Hockenson ($6200 DK, $8000 FD) could/should bounce back after a quiet Week 1 where he caught just three passes for 15 yards, though any ongoing struggles for McCarthy could fall hard on Hockenson. That proved to be the case in Week 1, even with Jalen Nailor ($4000 DK, $3800 FD) and Adam Thielen ($4800 DK, $5400 FD) doing relatively little. Nailor played more snaps than Thielen and might continue to do so, despite Thielen's greater price. Josh Oliver ($2400 DK, $2000 FD) is always a justifiable punt play at tight end, though he isn't often active as a receiver. Tai Felton ($1200 DK, $1000 FD) only played on special teams last week.
Drake London ($10400 DK, $10200 FD) is probably one of the tougher calls on the slate – one that makes it tough to afford all of London, Robinson and Jefferson despite the agony in fading any of the three. There's arguably reason to try to fit them all anyway, and in London's case because he's poised to draw a mammoth target share in 2025. In Week 1 London drew 15 of Penix's 42 targets – 35.7-percent share even on a high volume of team pass attempts. Efficiency becomes largely immaterial with usage on that scale.
Darnell Mooney ($7000 DK, $8200 FD), Ray-Ray McCloud ($5400 DK, $4800 FD) and Kyle Pitts ($5800 DK, $5800 FD) are tougher calls otherwise. Each of the three has the opportunity to do something, but it's unclear what a fair expectation would be for Mooney after missing last week with a shoulder injury. Though there's nothing wrong with picking any combination of the three, Mooney is the one the Falcons intend to use most when he's physically able. Casey Washington saw six targets last week and is therefore a justifiable punt pick, but he's the one who probably loses most with Mooney's return.
KICKER
Will Reichard ($5000 DK, $6800 FD) is likely one of the better kickers in the league, or at least he did a good impression of one against Chicago – in Chicago – in Week 1. Reichard made both of his attempts, including an especially crucial 59-yard field goal. Reichard was eight for 11 on field goals beyond 50 yards as a rookie last year, establishing him as one of the league's likely best long-range kickers.
Parker Romo ($4600 DK, $6400 FD) replaces Younghoe Koo, though who knows to what effect. The good news is Romo is definitely used to kicking in Minnesota – he actually subbed for Reichard in 2024 when Reichard missed time with injury. Romo was generally accurate, going 11 of 12 on field goal attempts, though he did miss one of his eight PATs and only attempted one of his 12 field goals from beyond 50, though he did make it (55).
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Vikings ($4400 DK, $7400 FD) defense was one of the most dangerous in 2024 largely due specifically to Brian Flores' innovative and disorienting coverage schemes, which vary in a way that makes it difficult for quarterbacks to correctly identify what they're looking at. Studying film won't necessarily help against the Vikings defense – it might even hurt you if they bait you into recognizing one apparent look that gets switched to a different one you didn't plan for. Even so, in 2025 the Minnesota defense has considerably more firepower in the front seven after adding Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. The absences of Jeff Okudah and especially Andrew Van Ginkel could test the Vikings a bit, but Dallas Turner is likely ready to step in as a standout replacement for AVG.
The Falcons ($3600 DK, $6000 FD) probably is still in something of a rebuild, though at least one that appears to be moving ahead at a reasonable pace. With edge-defender talents like Jalon Walker, James Pearce and Leonard Floyd added in the offseason the Falcons should have one of their best pass rushes in years, though the bar to clear is disturbingly low. They're fortunate to catch the Vikings while Jordan Addison is still suspended – Atlanta's corner depth is probably lacking – but if AJ Terrell can play great against Justin Jefferson then the Falcons just might be able to make the Vikings offense a bit uncomfortable. Generally, though, the bigger picture tends to identify the Vikings defense as the more likely hunters in this matchup.
