NFL Week 1 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

We're back for Year 3 of the weekly picks installment where I take every game against the spread and also pick the totals. I'm pretty proud of my overall record these past two years, but I'll admit I'm especially nervous for a Week 1 slate this year that seems, dare I say, pretty expected? You can see what I took for every team's over/under on the win total on my personal X account, or if you're into the audio medium, we discussed it ad nauseum on the RotoWire Fantasy Football podcast.

Below you'll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 1 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week. When it makes sense, I'll also incorporate some prop bets and best bets depending on what is offered early in the week.

2024 Season Record ATS: 144-124-4
2024 Season Record on Totals: 136-134-2

2023 Season Record ATS: 139-126-7
2023 Season Record on Totals: 130-137-5

NFL Week 1 Picks For Each Game

NFL Week 1 Predictions

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 1 odds and our predictions for each NFL game. Home teams are listed last.

Cowboys vs. Eagles

I'm incredibly wary of this game in Survivor, but admittedly it's just a vibes-based thing. The Eagles are the reigning champions playing on their home soil against a team that is deservedly in the news for a horrendous trade. Everything on paper screams a Philadelphia stomping, but Dallas has to have a bit of pride still, right?

Spread Pick: Philadelphia -7.5
Total Pick: Over 47.5

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Chiefs vs. Chargers

The Chiefs have had Los Angeles' number in recent years going 6-0 against their divisional foe. I do think the Brazil turf opens up the door for both offenses to thrive, but in that scenario Kansas City should just have the more explosive options.

Spread Pick: Chiefs -3
Total Pick: Over 45.5

Raiders vs. Patriots

There's an awful lot of assumptions New England will just instantly have a better offense than last year, and while I think Mike Vrabel is just one of those coaches that gets the most out of his roster, it's not that much different of a team that went 4-13 in back-to-back years. That being said, I also have reservations that Las Vegas will be anything close to successful offensively so I'll default to the better coach in this instance (sorry Seahawks fans).

Spread Pick: Patriots -2.5
Total Pick: Under 43.5

Steelers vs. Jets

Maybe I'm just viewing New York's situation with rose-tinted glasses, but I don't think this offense is much worse than the one people are talking glowingly about in Foxborough. The best play from this game is to probably tease the under because I have otherwise zero read as to what the outcome of this contest will be.

Spread Pick: Jets +3
Total Pick: Under 38.5

Buccaneers vs. Falcons

I can guarantee no matter the result this will likely be the one contest people overreact either way about. Both teams' without their star tackles (Tristan Wirfs and Kaleb McGary) evens the playing field somewhat, but I have far more confidence that Baker Mayfield will be reliably more consistent than what we'll see out of Michael Penix in his fourth career NFL start.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Total Pick: Over 47.5

Dolphins vs. Colts

I'm dumbfounded about this line. I recognize Miami has seemingly had the offseason from hell that San Francisco had last year and that the vibes just overall seem to be bad with the Dolphins. But come on, this is Daniel Jones. And an Indianapolis defense that always plays near average and nothing more. I could see both sides scoring plenty of points, but the Colts are far closer to No. 1 overall pick territory than being favorites against seemingly competent .500 teams.

Spread Pick: Dolphins +1.5
Total Pick: Over 47.5

Cardinals vs. Saints

I so desperately want to pick the Saints to at least cover, but this roster is easily one of the bleakest in the NFL. Arizona is sneakily not very good in its own right, but I think we're talking about an entirely different plane of existence when Spencer Rattler had to win a training camp QB battle.

Spread Pick: Cardinals -6.5
Total Pick: Over 43.5

Giants vs. Commanders

Washington feels like a team that we'll do a postmortem on in Week 16, but I think the truth of the matter is they overperformed relative to the talent on the roster last year. Credit to Dan Quinn and specifically Kliff Kingsbury, who I have openly despised at various points of his NFL tenure, for doing so much with less in 2024. All that being said, I think they'll take care of business against the Giants with relative ease. Russell Wilson probably raises the floor of the offense, but with Malik Nabers already banged up and a so-so offensive line for what feels like a 15th consecutive year, New York just isn't in the same tier.

Spread Pick: Commanders -6
Total Pick: Over 45.5

Panthers vs. Jaguars

This is unironically a must-watch game for me, not just because of the Travis Hunter theatre, but also because the notably loud contingency of Panthers fantasy truthers will either be vindicated or have to eat crow immediately. I'd like this line way more if you're able to get it at -3, but I've learned over the years to not get scared off by the half point.

Spread Pick: Jaguars -3.5
Total Pick: Under 46.5

Bengals vs. Browns 

Zac Taylor can't mess this up again, right? It's one thing to lose against the hopeless Patriots in Week 1 of last year, but to lose to a divisional rival like the Browns? Especially after Cincy played its starters in the preseason, they just simply can't have a slow start again.

Spread Pick: Bengals -5.5
Total Pick: Under 47.5

Titans vs. Broncos

I think Tennessee will be gamey this year, but this couldn't be a more impossible situation for Cameron Ward in his first professional start. This would be the first moneyline I'd include if I was trying to do any sort of parlay.

Spread Pick: Broncos -7.5
Total Pick: Under 42.5

49ers vs. Seahawks

San Francisco has typically owned the Seahawks over the years, notably winning each of the last three games in Seattle. I could see a cover in play, but there's just a significant difference in talent. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the 49ers are near the top of the NFC when the regular season is all said and done. Conversely, if I'm betting on the Seahawks it's to slam the under on the win total this year.

Spread Pick: 49ers -2.5
Total Pick: Over 43.5

Lions vs. Packers

As a Packers fan, the Micah Parsons trade was glorious, but it's also upped the expectations for an organization that has not won the NFC North in four years. Green Bay won each of its past 12 home openers, but they haven't opened at Lambeau Field since 2018. I'm not entirely sure any of that matters, but I do think the Lions won't just go away because the Packers made a big move for a pass rusher that might not be at full speed out of the gate.

Spread Pick: Lions +2.5
Total Pick: Under 47.5

Texans vs. Rams

Matthew Stafford (back) should be healthy for Week 1, and if that's the case this feels like a no brainer. Houston is going to be a problem this year, and I'd be nervous including the Rams at all in any parlays, but there's just too many question marks regarding the Texans' offense to buy into an upset.

Spread Pick: Rams -2.5
Total Pick: Over 43.5

Ravens vs. Bills

Just enjoy the ride, everyone. This could be the game of the year already in Week 1. 

Spread Pick: Bills -1.5
Total Pick: Under 50.5

Vikings vs. Bears

I really have no idea how this will go. It feels hard to assume J.J. McCarthy can replicate what Sam Darnold did for Minnesota last year, and this couldn't be a more difficult spot to begin his NFL career. That being said, I have reservations that Ben Johnson will immediately be able to install Detroit West right away in Week 1, and Brian Flores is an equally complicated opponent for Caleb Williams.

Spread Pick: Bears +1.5
Total Pick: Under 44.5

NFL Week 1 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 1 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 1

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 1. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 1 at BetMGM.

• MIA/IND over 46.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 1

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 1. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

• Week 1 Boost - Steelers, Cardinals, Jaguars and Dolphins all to win (+600)
• Quickplay Pin Them Deep - Cowboys, Chargers, Giants and Jets first drive all to result in punt (+1887)
• Player Specials > Justin Herbert to record 25+ passing yards in every quarter (-105)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 1

DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 1 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

• Bengals, Broncos, Rams moneyline + Hollywood Brown 25+ receiving yards (+295)
• Terry McLaurin 60+ receiving yards, Mason Taylor 2+ receptions, Evan Engram 3+ receptions and Christian Kirk 3+ receptions (+361)
  • Use ghost token to cover if one leg doesn't hit

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 1

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

• Dolphins moneyline (-106)
• Titans first drive to result in punt (-125)

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 1

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 3.

• Jahmyr Gibbs over 66.5 rushing yards (-115)

Fanatics Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 1

For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 1 NFL picks. You can try "PointsBetting" for Week 1 to maximize your return.

• Bears moneyline (+100)

Look ahead at the NFL Week 2 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.