The Stats Room: Week 5 QB Projections

The Stats Room: Week 5 QB Projections

This article is part of our The Stats Room series.

When I started down of creating basic projection path, my goal was to create a set of projections using publicly available stats. These would be a set of baseline projection set in which other projection systems can be compared. I reached my limit for possible inputs to quarterbacks. I've checked everything off the list.

First, here are last week's results, which included in-season projected pass attempts.

PLAYERZMANROTOWIREDIFFRESULTSZMAN (PROJ)ROTOWIRE (DIFF)
Aaron Rodgers 22.3 21.6 0.7 23.1 0.8 -1.5
Alex Smith 16.1 16.8 -0.7 27.3 11.2 10.5
Andy Dalton 16.8 15.8 1.0 28.3 11.5 12.5
Ben Roethlisberger 17.0 15.8 1.2 10.5 6.5 5.3
Blake Bortles 16.1 15.5 0.5 11.4 4.7 4.1
Brian Hoyer 15.0 10.6 4.4 7.7 7.3 2.9
Cam Newton 17.2 15.7 1.5 33.0 15.9 17.4
Carson Palmer 18.4 17.3 1.1 16.4 2.0 0.9
Carson Wentz 17.0 16.9 0.1 15.1 1.9 1.8
Case Keenum 15.4 12.4 3.0 8.8 6.7 3.6
Dak Prescott 16.8 18.3 -1.5 22.6 5.8 4.3
Derek Carr 15.9 15.9 0.0 9.7 6.2 6.2
Deshaun Watson 12.2 13.3 -1.1 33.7 21.5 20.5
DeShone Kizer 12.1 10.7 1.5 3.7 8.4 7.0
Drew Brees 18.9 21.2 -2.3 19.0 0.1 2.2
Eli Manning 16.7 15.0 1.8 27.7 11.0 12.7
Jacoby Brissett 12.0 9.1 2.9 9.6 2.4 0.5
Jameis Winston 16.2 16.9 -0.7 26.5 10.3 9.6
Jared Goff 12.0 16.9 -4.9 18.1 6.1 1.2
Jay Cutler 13.1 15.8 -2.7 5.1 8.1 10.7
Joe Flacco 14.9 13.0 1.9 9.4 5.5 3.6
Josh McCown 14.0 9.7 4.3 5.0 9.1
When I started down of creating basic projection path, my goal was to create a set of projections using publicly available stats. These would be a set of baseline projection set in which other projection systems can be compared. I reached my limit for possible inputs to quarterbacks. I've checked everything off the list.

First, here are last week's results, which included in-season projected pass attempts.

PLAYERZMANROTOWIREDIFFRESULTSZMAN (PROJ)ROTOWIRE (DIFF)
Aaron Rodgers 22.3 21.6 0.7 23.1 0.8 -1.5
Alex Smith 16.1 16.8 -0.7 27.3 11.2 10.5
Andy Dalton 16.8 15.8 1.0 28.3 11.5 12.5
Ben Roethlisberger 17.0 15.8 1.2 10.5 6.5 5.3
Blake Bortles 16.1 15.5 0.5 11.4 4.7 4.1
Brian Hoyer 15.0 10.6 4.4 7.7 7.3 2.9
Cam Newton 17.2 15.7 1.5 33.0 15.9 17.4
Carson Palmer 18.4 17.3 1.1 16.4 2.0 0.9
Carson Wentz 17.0 16.9 0.1 15.1 1.9 1.8
Case Keenum 15.4 12.4 3.0 8.8 6.7 3.6
Dak Prescott 16.8 18.3 -1.5 22.6 5.8 4.3
Derek Carr 15.9 15.9 0.0 9.7 6.2 6.2
Deshaun Watson 12.2 13.3 -1.1 33.7 21.5 20.5
DeShone Kizer 12.1 10.7 1.5 3.7 8.4 7.0
Drew Brees 18.9 21.2 -2.3 19.0 0.1 2.2
Eli Manning 16.7 15.0 1.8 27.7 11.0 12.7
Jacoby Brissett 12.0 9.1 2.9 9.6 2.4 0.5
Jameis Winston 16.2 16.9 -0.7 26.5 10.3 9.6
Jared Goff 12.0 16.9 -4.9 18.1 6.1 1.2
Jay Cutler 13.1 15.8 -2.7 5.1 8.1 10.7
Joe Flacco 14.9 13.0 1.9 9.4 5.5 3.6
Josh McCown 14.0 9.7 4.3 5.0 9.1 4.7
Kirk Cousins 17.7 16.6 1.1 20.6 2.9 4.0
Marcus Mariota 16.3 17.5 -1.2 15.7 0.6 1.8
Matt Ryan 17.2 20.7 -3.5 8.5 8.7 12.2
Matthew Stafford 17.7 15.7 2.1 10.1 7.7 5.6
Mike Glennon 10.3 11.2 -0.9 4.7 5.6 6.5
Philip Rivers 17.0 17.4 -0.4 19.9 2.9 2.5
Russell Wilson 20.9 20.0 0.9 27.6 6.7 7.6
Tom Brady 18.1 23.1 -5.0 20.5 2.4 2.6
Trevor Siemian 15.4 16.8 -1.4 11.3 4.1 5.5
Tyrod Taylor 16.4 16.9 -0.5 12.5 3.9 4.4
Average 16.0 15.9 0.1 16.3 6.5 6.0
Standard Deviation 4.6 5.0

Going into last weekend, I knew the final results were going to be close. The standard RotoWire projections had the least amount of average error while the Z-mans came in with the least amount of deviation.

As usual, I over projected a few guys (Brian Hoyer, Case Keenum and Josh McCown), but the results remain encouraging. With my projections setting a baseline, I've decided to test/add two more possible inputs, the team's projected points score and if the opponents defensive pass-run mix.

As for the home team's expected points ((OU-Spread)/2), I've wanted to use it as a proxy for opposing defense, weather and playing surface. Until now, I haven't found an effective and simply add it.

I do now. For each point a team scores over the historic league average (20.8 points), the quarterback gets an additional 0.5 points to his projection. If his team is expected to score less than the average, his score takes a hit.

It was a small additional improvement but really helped to adjust for potential blowouts.

The other addition I tested was the passing-running split the defensive team allowed. While the spread and O/U would be a good proxy for the overall defense, I was wondering if the defense's nature, good against the pass versus the run, would make a difference. Basically, if a team the quarterback was up against had porous secondary but stout run defense, would his performance be better than expected?

The short answer is no, the pass-rush ratio doesn't matter one bit. Projecting any defensive metric beyond the spread is not possible. The pass-run split barely correlates from the season's first half to second half. And with so much turnover from one season to the next in coaches and personnel, very little intra-season correlation exists.

Well, I'm finally out of ideas for quarterbacks. Please let me know if you have any ideas but I'm ready to move on. Now for quarterback ranks for Week 5.

Name Zman RotoWire Diff

PLAYERZMANROTOWIREDIFF
Aaron Rodgers 26.2 21.8 4.4
Alex Smith 22.3 15.4 6.9
Andy Dalton 17.9 14.6 3.3
Ben Roethlisberger 18.0 16.7 1.3
Blake Bortles 16.7 13.2 3.6
Brian Hoyer 14.1 11.1 3.0
Cam Newton 16.5 17.8 -1.3
Carson Palmer 23.1 12.2 10.9
Carson Wentz 18.3 17.0 1.3
Case Keenum 10.9 12.0 -1.0
Dak Prescott 21.6 18.6 3.0
Deshaun Watson 12.1 17.7 -5.6
DeShone Kizer 12.2 12.7 -0.5
EJ Manuel 9.0 9.5 -0.6
Eli Manning 16.9 17.3 -0.4
Jacoby Brissett 8.1 11.0 -2.9
Jameis Winston 16.5 18.8 -2.3
Jared Goff 12.3 15.8 -3.5
Jay Cutler 14.8 12.0 2.8
Joe Flacco 15.1 11.7 3.3
Josh McCown 12.4 11.2 1.1
Marcus Mariota 16.4 16.2 0.2
Matthew Stafford 17.6 15.4 2.2
Mitchell Trubisky 9.0 10.5 -1.6
Philip Rivers 20.0 15.6 4.4
Russell Wilson 26.4 18.5 7.9
Tom Brady 25.8 23.2 2.6
Tyrod Taylor 15.6 15.2 0.4
Average 16.6 15.1 1.5

I am again on the high side compared to the standard RotoWire projections with the difference coming down to three quarterbacks.

Carson Palmer (10.9 pts diff): This comes down to a difference in pass attempts (29 vs. 38) and the yards and touchdowns with them. My system, compared to the RotoWire projections, is weighing the 2016 season more than the current one at this point.

Russell Wilson (7.9 pts diff): The difference is for two reasons. First, the Vegas line is all over the place for this game, when there is one, so Wilson might be getting a bump from it. Second, my projections just like Wilson a little more across the board with both rushing and passing.

Alex Smith (6.9 pts diff): My projections like him for two reasons. First, the standard projections have him running only once for eight yards while I have him taking off four times and getting 20 yards. Besides the rushing yards, I have him for few more yards passing and the increase in touchdowns because Vegas has it as a close (-1), reasonably high-scoring game.

I'm going to take a break from projection articles the next few weeks and examine the idea of red-zone running backs and wide receivers. As always, let me know if you have any questions.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Jeff is a former RotoWire contributor. He wrote analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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