This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE CJ CUP BYRON NELSON
Purse: $9.5M
Winner's Share: $1.71M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: McKinney, Texas
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Yardage: 7,414
Par: 71
2023 champion: Jason Day
Tournament Preview
Since 2000, the PGA Tour stop in Dallas had six different title sponsors and was played on four different courses. The one constant, of course, has been Byron Nelson. For nearly six decades beginning in 1968, the tournament has bore the name of the gentlemanly golf champion who passed away in 2006.
Even though Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods -- the other golfers who have their "own" tournaments -- all have Signature Events, Nelson's never has been and, bluntly, never will. It's just in a bad spot on the schedule.
What it does have is new-found stability, which these days counts for a lot in golf. AT&T bowed out after last year (though it has stayed with Pebble Beach, which became a Signature Event). It has been replaced by the CJ Group, the Seoul-based conglomerate that used to be the title sponsor of the now-shuddered CJ Cup in South Korea. The CJ Group has signed on for 10 years, which is quite a commitment to golf in the United States in general and to the PGA Tour specifically.
The Nelson is a good fit for the CJ Group. The Dallas area has become a U.S. hub of many Korean golfers, who have a rich history in this tournament. K.H. Lee is a two-time winner, while Sung Kang and Sang-moon Bae have also won it. So it's a natural connection for the CJ Group.
TPC Craig Ranch is signed on only through next year, so the location might soon change, though the course has been well received, far more than ill-fated Trinity Forest before it.
Lee, Kang, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Byeong Hun An, Michael Kim and S.H. Kim constitute a strong Korean contingent this week. But the biggest name and, some might argue, the only truly big name in the field is Jordan Spieth. He's far from the golfer he used to be, now down to No. 20 in the world rankings, but that's tops in this field and he remains among the handful of the biggest stars in the game, especially in his native Texas. Also in the 156-man field are defending champion Jason Day, Adam Scott, Min Woo Lee, rising Japanese star Ryo Hisatsune and Stephan Jaeger, who happens to be the only man in the past two months to beat Scottie Scheffler.
Nelson, who won six majors and more than 50 Tour events mostly in the 1930s and '40s, passed at 94. Now, his tournament is approaching that lofty age. The inaugural 1944 Texas Victory Open was won by none other than Nelson himself -- over someone with the great golf name of Jug McSpaden -- followed the next two years by Sam Snead and Ben Hogan. Through the years, other winners have been Woods, Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Fred Couples, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and so many more greats of the game.
Just five years ago in 2019, the headliner at this struggling tournament was none other than ... Tony Romo. He missed the cut by a mere nine strokes, though that was actually better than four other real golfers who completed 36 holes.
The Nelson is back at TPC Craig Ranch for a fourth straight year. The course is a 2004 Tom Weiskopf design located about 35 miles north of Dallas. Before it became the Nelson course, its claim to fame was playing host to the 2008 and 2012 Korn Ferry Tour Championships. Early indications once Craig Ranch was named as the host course were that PGA Tour pros could chew it up. That has been borne out, as Lee won at 25-under and then 26-under, nipping Spieth by a stroke, both times when the course was a par-72.
The track was not especially long for a par-72. But last year, obviously in an effort to curtail scoring, they took away one of the four par-5s and turned it into a par-71 track. The 12th went from a 547-yard par-5 to a 493-yard par-4. The three remaining par-5s are reachable in two by a good chunk of field, as the longest is 569 yards on the scorecard. No. 18 is a mere 552 yards, so a final-hole eagle is in play.
Day broke a long winless drought and won at 23-under -- still a big-time track meet -- and birdied 18 all four days. He played the three par-5s in 9-under. Two years ago, Lee played the four par-5s in 16-under and Spieth was at 15-under.
Three of the par-3s surpass 200 yards and six par-4s exceed 450 yards. But there are also short par-4s, including two that are semi-drivable, the 361-yard 6th and the 330-yard 14th. The course features tree-lined but fairly generous fairways leading to large bentgrass greens (averaging almost 6,800 square feet). There is prominent water all along the course, mainly in the name of Rowlett Creek, and it will come into play on 13 of the 18 holes. There are 83 bunkers.
An early look at the weather can be described as, oh, let's go with brutal. Rain every day, more than a 50 percent chance every days -- 80 percent on Thursday. There will also be double-digit mph wind throughout the tournament. High temperatures will be around 80 every day. So, obviously, this is a week to wait till the last minute for an updated forecast and see whether early/late or late/early tee times have an edge.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Craig Ranch
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Birdie Average/Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%)
• Par-4 Scoring, especially 450-500 yards
• Par-5 Scoring 550-600 yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting
Past Champions
2023 - Jason Day (TPC Craig Ranch)
2022 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2021 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2020 - None
2019 - Sung Kang (Trinity Forest)
2018 - Aaron Wise (Trinity Forest)
2017 - Billy Horschel (TPC Four Seasons)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (TPC Four Seasons)
2015 - Steven Bowditch (TPC Four Seasons)
2014 - Brendon Todd (TPC Four Seasons)
Champion's Profile
The three tournaments at TPC Craig Ranch have been Wild West shootouts, with Lee winning at 25-under in 2021 and at 26-under last year, with Day at 23-under a year ago with one fewer par-5. So there wasn't a huge difference, and the winning score should again be well into the 20s.
Last year, Day ranked 12th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, third in Approach and 31st in Around-the-Green, which all added up to 1st in Tee-to-Green. He also ranked 28th in SG: Putting. Co-runner-up Si Woo Kim took a similar path but the other runner-up, Austin Eckroat, led the field in Putting. Other than Eckroat, the five other top finishers all ranked in the top 8 in SG: Tee-to-Green, and none of the five ranked in the top-20 in Putting.
Golfodds.com puts the over/under on the winning score at 260.5 -- 22.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
$9,000-$9,900
Si Woo Kim - $9,800 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
Kim is ranked 141st on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting yet is 10th in SG: Total. That's because he's fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Kim found himself as the co-betting favorite with Spieth at the DraftKings Sportsbook. That only makes us feel even better about bypassing both five-figure DFS guys -- Spieth and Day (Will Zalatoris was a third, but he withdrew on Tuesday). Kim has not missed a cut in 11 starts this year with seven top-25s. He was runner-up to Day here last year.
Alex Noren - $9,500 (+2200)
Noren is ranked 15th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Total yet has only one top-10 in nine starts. How can that be? He clearly is playing better than he's scoring. He has six top-25s and three top-15s, meaning he's just missing top-10s by slight margins. He finished 12th here last year and 21st the year before, which sounds like a mirror image of his 2024 season.
Stephan Jaeger - $9,200 (+2500)
Jaeger holds the pretty lofty distinction of being the only golfer to beat Scheffler in the past two months, during which time Scheffler has won four of five starts. Jaeger did so by capturing his first career title at the Houston Open. He subsequently and understandably missed the cut at the Masters but bounced right back with a T18 at the RBC Heritage. Jaeger is ranked 19th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and finished 11th here last year.
Tom Hoge - $9,100 (+2500)
Hoge might be the best value on the board, even priced in the $9,000s. He ranks first overall in our model. He's ranked second on Tour in SG: Approach and 30th in SG: Putting, a combination that lands him in the top-10 on Tour in birdie average and birdie or better. He has a pair of top-10s this season and four other top-20s, including at the Amex, where he got it to 21-under, showing he can go low like he has to this week. Hoge has played all three tournaments at Craig Ranch, finishing 17th two years ago.
$8,000-$8,900
Maverick McNealy - $8,200 (+5000)
McNealy ranks fifth overall in our model, with outstanding Tee-to-Green play, par-4 scoring and long par-4 scoring. Plus he's 32nd on Tour on the season in SG: Putting. Still looking for his first career title, McNealy is now fully back from last year's shoulder injury.
Mark Hubbard - $8,100 (+5000)
Hubbard also lands among the top 10 in our model, strong virtually across the board in every key stat. For the season, he's top-25 on Tour in SG: Approach. Hubbard has made all 11 cuts this season and is coming off a solo third last week at the Zurich Classic with partner Ryan Brehm.
$7,000-$7,900
Seamus Power - $7,900 (+5500)
Power has a top-10 and two other top-20s in the three years at Craig Ranch. He got off to a slow start in 2024, so his season-long stats don't look great. But he more recently bagged top-25s at two Signature Events at Bay Hill and Harbour Town, where he just missed a top-10.
Davis Thompson - $7,900 (+5500)
Our model puts Thompson just inside the top 25, which is fitting since he has top-25s in half of his 12 starts this season, including last week's Zurich. He's also ranks top-25 on Tour in birdie average, which tracks after he got to 20-under at the Amex in January. Thompson is ranked 50th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Chan Kim - $7,600 (+7000)
The 34-year-old Arizona State alum is quietly having a decent season -- he's 79th in the FedEx Cup points race, just outside the 75th-place cutoff. He has a pair of top-10s and two more top-15s, getting it to 22-under at the Amex. Kim is ranked top-50 on Tour in both SG: Tee-to-Green and birdie average.
Justin Lower - $7,500 (+7500)
Lower ranks tops in this field in par-4 scoring over his past 24 rounds. He's missed only two cuts in 13 starts and has a pair of top-5s, albeit in weaker fields in Mexico and the Dominican Republic. He's ranked inside the top-50 on Tour in SG: Approach and just outside it in birdie average.
Nate Lashley - $7,300 (+7000)
Lashley doesn't strike us as an aggressive player, which we like this week. Quite the opposite. But he's recorded top-25s here the past two years, so he's connecting somehow at Craig Ranch. He's above average in every season-long strokes-gained metric on Tour, with a best ranking of 30th in Tee-to-Green. Lashley has missed seven of 12 cuts this season, but he's made four of his past five, with top-25s at THE PLAYERS and Houston Open.
Matti Schmid - $7,200 (+8000)
Schmid missed his first six cuts this season. He then made six in a row, four of them being top-25s and just missing another at THE PLAYERS (T26). So his season-long stats aren't great, though he's top-50 in birdie average and 51st in birdie or better. In fact, Schmid ranks first in our model in BoB% in this field over his past 24 rounds.
$6,000-$6,900
Brice Garnett - $6,800 (+13000)
The 40-year-old Garnett began the year on the Korn Ferry Tour. He got his first PGA Tour start in March and made the most of it -- in a really big way -- winning the Puerto Rico Open. He then made the cut at THE PLAYERS. He had a top-25 at the RBC Heritage Signature Event. And then he and Sepp Straka tied for 11th at the Zurich. Garnett has played here all three years, making every cut with a T15 in 2022.
Dylan Wu - $6,700 (+18000)
Wu has made eight of 11 cuts this season, including his past five, though that includes last week's Zurich. It also includes a top-20 at THE PLAYERS. He's one of the shorter hitters on Tour, which hinders him on a lot of tracks but likely not so much here. Still, Wu is ranked top-50 on Tour in SG: Approach.
Erik Barnes - $6,500 (+30000)
Barnes has proved proficient at making cuts -- he missed only one in eight starts before the Zurich. He was runner-up in Puerto Rico, getting to 19-under before losing to Garnett on the fourth playoff hole. Barnes is ranked 83rd on Tour in birdie average for the season, which doesn't sound great but is pretty darn good in this field. Our model says he's among the best in this field at par-4 scoring.
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