This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $25M
Winner's Share: $4.5M
FedEx Cup Points: 750 to the Winner
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course
Yardage: 7,275
Par: 72
2023 champion: Scottie Scheffler
Tournament Preview
The clock was ticking down toward 5 p.m. ET on Friday afternoon. Noon ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4 ... and still no news. What would Tiger Woods do? Word finally came in an email to golf reporters at 5:01. Woods was NOT entered in THE PLAYERS Championship. Talk about the air going out of the room.
Woods played just four days earlier, on Monday, at the Seminole Golf Club Pro-Member. That didn't necessarily portend he would tee it up at TPC Sawgrass; it actually was confusing, since he had never played in that prestigious event before. Anyhoo, Wood had stated late last year that he wanted to play once a month this season, presumably meaning his Genesis Invitational in February, THE PLAYERS and then the four majors. Alas, his prediction ended after one month -- and not even a full one, with his second-round WD at Riviera because of the flu.
At a time when the PGA Tour is all but begging for big names to do something ... anything! ... like, you know, be on leaderboards and TV screens late on a Sunday afternoon, this was a big blow. (A blow to NBC too, even though they announced they were bringing back a pair of their big names, Gary Koch and Roger Maltbie, to celebrate the 50th PLAYERS Championship. But only on Thursday and Friday -- boooooo!)
However, news of Woods' decision was softened -- and by more than a little bit -- with the return of Scottie Scheffler at Bay Hill. The world No. 1 played like it, and not just tee-to-green. He had one of the best putting tournaments in his career and now heads into defense of his PLAYERS title an overwhelming favorite. Like, at the jaw-dropping DraftKings price of $12,800. There's a cavernous $1,200 different between Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy. At the opposite end of the DK board are a boatload of $5,000s, and we should now expect this to be the norm in full-field events: a top price in the $12Ks and dozens of golfers in the $5Ks.
Scheffler is hardly one to play the part of a villain, even with a newly grown beard, but at least there's a decent narrative now: Who can stop Scottie? McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and every big name will take their best shot in the field of 144 for a tournament.
It's important to note that in the first 49 editions of THE PLAYERS, there has never been a back-to-back winner. In fact, it's proven very hard to win twice at any time. More on that lower down.
This will be the fifth time THE PLAYERS has been contested in March since being repositioned in 2019. Remember, the 2020 PLAYERS was canceled after just one round at the onset of the global pandemic. It had been played in May from 2007-18, after taking place in March for its first 33 years, beginning with Jack Nicklaus capturing the inaugural edition in 1974. Just four players in this year's field have won THE PLAYERS in March -- Adam Scott in 2004, McIlroy in 2019, Thomas in 2021 and Scheffler last year.
One of the big questions in 2019 was how the course would play differently moving from the middle of spring to late winter. It turned out, there was a big change. The golfers said the course played longer in the cooler weather. Webb Simpson won at 18-under in 2018 in the final May edition and since then the winning score had consistently gone down, from McIlroy at 16-under in 2019 to Thomas at 14-under in 2021 to Cameron Smith at 13-under two years ago. True, it jumped to 17-under last year, but Scheffler won by five strokes so he was the aberration more than the course. TPC Sawgrass landed where it often does on the course difficulty ranking -- 13th hardest on Tour last year -- with a whopping 254 double bogeys or worse, tied for second behind only Oak Hill at the PGA Championship and just two behind PGA National for most on Tour. But Sawgrass had the most "worse" -- meaning 41 triple bogeys or, um, worse.
Information provided by the PGA Tour showed that from 1997 through 2021 -- 12 times in March, 12 in May -- scores were on average three-quarters of a shot lower in May as opposed to March (72.48 vs. 73.23). There were 5% more rounds in the 60s in May, which makes sense in the warmer climate; but we also have to consider that since most of those March tournaments, meaning pre-2006, golf equipment and the golfers themselves have changed exponentially.
Even though all that sends some mixed messages, the most confounding issue at hand really is figuring out who will play well this week. Sure, that's the case every week, but since the tournament has been held at Sawgrass beginning in 1982, there have only been five two-time winners, and no three-timers. Woods is one of them, but he has had only five top-10s in 19 tries. Phil Mickelson, the 2007 winner, missed the cut in six of his last seven visits and owns only three top-10s in 26 starts. This doesn't happen often, maybe nowhere else on Tour, but it's really hard to label anyone a true horse for the course. Only four players have so much as finished in the top-25 the past two years: Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Russell Henley and Adam Hadwin. This is all probably due at least in part to the consistent strength of the fields. The majors all let in secondary- or even tertiary-level players, be they aging ex-champs, amateurs, players from lesser Tours or even club pros. Not THE PLAYERS.
Okay, on to the course, which inched up about 20 yards to 7,275 since last year, still short for a par-72. Pete Dye-designed Sawgrass, despite having its quirks here and there, tends to be a pretty standard tee-to-green golf course. Distance is not paramount. Accuracy will be. There traditionally has not been much rough. You can get away with mediocre putting on the medium-size poa greens averaging 5,500 square feet. There's water everywhere, but it truly comes into play on 14 of the 18 holes. No hole is more famous – perhaps anywhere in the world – than the 17th with its island green. It's a mere 137 yards, but it's all crystal blue water between the tee and green. Last year, there were 39 double bogeys or worse. If 17 isn't nerve-racking enough, the 462-yard 18th plays even harder. Last year, it was the hardest hole on the course and one of the hardest on Tour all year. It played more than a third of shot over par at 4.38. There were a mere 42 birdies there all week -- and only five on Sunday.
Nos. 16-18 have seen far more water balls the past two decades than any other three-hole closing stretch on Tour. There are usually more water balls on those three holes than the other 15 combined.
If a playoff is needed, it will be a three-hole aggregate on 16, 17 and 18. If golfers are still tied, they'd play 17, 18 and 16 in a loop till there's a winner. The Tour gets it right -- 17 is in the playoff.
As for the weather, things are looking pretty good. High temps should be 80ish all four days. Friday looks like there could be some rain in the afternoon. It doesn't appear too severe right now. But check back closer to the lock to try to determine whether the early/late tee times might not be able to finish. As for the wind, it's Florida, it should be blowing double digits.
Intriguing PLAYERS factoid: The list of former champions reads like a wing in the Hall of Fame. Nicklaus, Woods, Mickelson, McIlroy, Norman, Trevino, Floyd, Couples, Price, Scott, Day, Thomas, Love, Duval and Lyle. There have been only five two-time champions since the tournament moved to Sawgrass in 1982 -- Woods, Fred Couples, Davis Love III, Hal Sutton and Steve Elkington -- and it has taken a long time to pick up win No. 2. Only Elkington -- the 1991 and 1997 champion -- won again within 10 years. Sutton's wins, 1983 and 2000, came 17 years apart.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Sawgrass
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting (less emphasis than the other stats)
• Bogey Avoidance
Past Champions
2023 - Scottie Scheffler
2022 - Cameron Smith
2021 - Justin Thomas
2020 - None
2019 - Rory McIlroy
2018 - Webb Simpson
2017 - Si Woo Kim
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Martin Kaymer
Champion's Profile
There is water almost everywhere, technically on 17 holes but it comes into play on 14. As mentioned earlier, there were 254 double bogeys or worse last year. There were 39 alone on No. 17. Scheffler had only five bogeys on the week -- with zero doubles. That's how you get to 17-under and win by five. Scheffler led the field in driving distance, but at only 305 yards. Sawgrass is not a bomber's paradise. Scheffler ranked first in greens in regulation, fourth in SG: Approach and Around-the-Green, first in SG: Tee-to-Green and ... 48th in SG: Putting. That matches how Thomas won three years ago, ranking 42nd in Putting but leading the field in Tee-to-Green. In between, Smith putted lights out. That's what makes this week so confounding -- there is no one Champion's Profile. But more times than not, it's tee-to-green play. Last year, the top four on the leaderboard all finished in the top-5 in SG: Approach and top-10 in SG: Tee-to-Green. None of them ranked in the top-10 in SG: Putting. Only two of the top-15 guys on the leaderboard did. More than making putts, avoiding the big number and the water balls, is the key. Don't misunderstand – there are birdies to be had and this usually isn't a single-digit-tough track -- but it's far from a birdie-fest. The over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com is 272.5 -- 15.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Scottie Scheffler - $12,800 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +550)
Yeah, we did say earlier that no one has ever one this tournament back to back. Ever. But recency bias sure is intoxicating, as is Scheffler's golf game when he can putt even remotely mediocre, much less exceptional, as he did last week with his new mallet-head putter. Of course, he will cost you more than 25 percent of your budget. But the dip in prices into the $5,000s at least gives you a chance to field some other decent players besides Scheffler.
Will Zalatoris - $9,900 (+3500)
Zalatoris has returned to form far faster than most would've predicted after last year's season-ending back surgery. He's had top-5s in his past two starts in loaded fields at Riviera and Bay Hill. Putting remains his big issue. But if there's one skill set you can contend at TPC Sawgrass without being outstanding in, it's putting. Zalatoris finished 21st here in his 2021 debut and 26th in 2022.
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,800 (+3500)
If there's any one horse for this course covering more than just the past two years or so, it's probably Matsuyama. So from that standpoint, we weren't thrilled to see him win the Genesis and then follow up with another good week at Bay Hill (T12), moving him distinctly over the radar. Matsuyama tied for fifth last year. In the pre-pandemic years, he had two other Sawgrass top-10s and three more top-25s.
Max Homa - $9,600 (+2500)
As mentioned above, Homa is one of only four players here with top-25s in both of the past two editions. He was sixth last year, 13th in 2022. Based on how hard it's been to string together multiple good results at TPC Sawgrass, this should almost be a warning sign to stay away. Homa has been sneaky decent so far in 2024. We phrased it like that because he hasn't contended for a title, but he does have four top-16s, highlighted by last week's tie for eighth at Bay Hill. In other words, he's close.
Tier 2 Values
Ludvig Aberg - $9,300 (+3500)
Aberg has never played TPC Sawgrass. We don't view that as a deal-breaker (obviously). It's a hard but fairly straightforward golf course. Even though Aberg has cooled a bit from late last year -- how could he not cool from the way he was playing? -- he's still been pretty good so far in 2024. He arrives with four straight top-25s, including a top-10 at the Farmers and a runner-up at Pebble Beach.
Shane Lowry - $9,000 (+4000)
Lowry has been playing well coming in and has played well at TPC Sawgrass. You could say he's blown 54-hole leads the past two weeks, and you'd be correct. You would also be correct in saying he has consecutive top-5s. And, before last year's T35 at Sawgrass, he finished 13th and eighth the two previous years. We'd feel better about Lowry if his bogey-avoidance ranking weren't so low, it's 139th, but it's hard to have a player shine in every area that's required at Sawgrass.
Russell Henley - $8,600 (+4000)
Henley is another guy with top-25s the past two years. It really is a good course fit for him in that you can thrive without being an elite putter. But if he hadn't been playing well in the run-up to this week, he wouldn't be in this article. Henley already has two top-5s in 2024, including last week at Bay Hill, plus a top-25 at Riviera. He landed at No. 15 in our model, highlighted by his terrific ability to keep tee balls in the fairway.
Si Woo Kim - $8,000 (+4500)
Kim ranked 13th in our model -- and that's as one of the five worst putters in the field over the past 24 rounds. Yet he's played pretty well so far this season and has shown he can tame Sawgrass. The 2017 PLAYERS winner has another top-10 and a top-25 on his ledger here, and just missed another top-25 a year ago. Kim has not missed a cut this season, with a top-25 and two other top-15s.
Tier 3 Values
Brian Harman - $7,900 (+6000)
Harman has had some very good results at Sawgrass and some clunkers, which is fairly common. But he rarely misses a cut. He's made it seven of the past eight years. He has three top-10s, but the other five years he's been outside the top 40. Harman ranked inside the cut line in our model, though not in the top-25. He hasn't missed a cut in 2024 and is coming off his best result, a tie for 12th at Bay Hill.
Tom Hoge - $7,800 (+6500)
Early indications are that Hoge will be a popular pick. He ranks top-25 in our model thanks largely to exceptional approach play. He tied for 12th last week at Bay Hill, plus has two other top-10s and two additional top-20s already in 2024. Like with a lot of our picks here, putting is Hoge's biggest trouble spot. He tied for third here a year ago and was 22nd in 2021.
Eric Cole - $7,700 (+10000)
Cole rebounded from a missed cut at the Cognizant, which followed his first week off of the year, to tie for 21st at Bay Hill. The man obviously needs to play every single week to stay sharp! (We kid.) Cole finished 27th in his Sawgrass debut a year ago. He is not without holes in his game, but the shorter course should work in his favor, and his putting can cure a lot of ills.
Alex Noren - $7,200 (+10000)
Noren has missed the cut here two of the past three years. But he does rank very high in our model (almost too high, at 11th!). He's had a top-10 and a top-20 at TPC Sawgrass before, back in 2017-18. He just missed a top-25 two years ago. Noren is also coming off a top-10 at the Cognizant. While great putting is not required to do well at Sawgrass, it surely can mask other deficiencies, and Noren is a very good putter.
Long-Shot Values
Nick Taylor - $6,900 (+11000)
Taylor has not been great at Sawgrass, but this price is simply too good to pass up for a guy ranked No. 25 in the world with a win already in 2024 plus a top-10 and a tie for 12th last week at Bay Hill. Taylor is in the upper half of the field in every key stat save SG: Off-the-Tee. He has played this tournament only sporadically because he often was not good enough to qualify. But he's a different golfer now. Taylor missed the cut last year. He tied for 16th in 2019.
Doug Ghim - $6,800 (+10000)
Ghim is playing the best golf of his career right now. He's gone T13-T12-T8-T16 in his past four starts ending with the Cognizant. And he's played well at Sawgrass, which makes sense based on his strong tee-to-green game. Ghim missed the cut here last year, but finished sixth and 29th the two previous years. His putting is among the worst in the field, but the combination of fairway accuracy and strong iron play is among the best in the field over his past 24 rounds.
Brendon Todd - $6,500 (+13000)
Regular readers are probably tired of seeing Todd's name. Heck, I'm tired of typing it. But the model and other metrics continue to say he is a good play on a shorter track. He hasn't been great at Sawgrass, though he's made the cut two of the past three years and he finished 27th a year ago. Interestingly, Todd is coming off a tie for sixth at Bay Hill -- most assuredly not a short track -- and had a top-25 at Phoenix. He is ranked top-25 on Tour in driving accuracy and is 12th in SG: Putting.
Davis Thompson - $6,100 (+18000)
Thompson has made five of six cuts this season with three top-25s, though not in any field as stern as this one. He made the cut last year in his Sawgrass debut. Like Taylor, Thompson is quite balanced statistically and in the top half of this field in every key metric but SG: Off-the-Tee.
Deep Long-Shot Values
Sam Ryder - $5,600 (+30000)
We turned to Ryder at $5,900 two weeks ago at the Cognizant and he tied for 21st. Simply put, he's accurate with his driver and irons. Ryder landed inside the cut line in our model because of his exceptional approach play. He's made the cut here the past two years, albeit without a high finish.
Francesco Molinari - $5,100 (+60000)
This pick is not for the faint of heart. Molinari has gone 73-MC-MC in his three PGA Tour starts in 2024, though the one made cut was at Torrey Pines. Long ago, he played Sawgrass exceptionally well, with three top-7s in four years -- 2014-17. More recently, Molinari made the cut the past two years. He qualified for this field only on the basis of his Open Championship win -- in 2018! This will be the last year of his five-year PLAYERS exemption.
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