This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Courses
- Pebble Beach Golf Links (6,972 yards, par 72) [Host Course]
- Spyglass Hill Golf Course (7,041 yards, par 72)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 700 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a historic event on the PGA Tour that will undergo a massive makeover for the 2024 edition. It was given Signature Event status for this season which means it will be a limited-field, no-cut event that will hand out 700 FedExCup points to the winner and include a $20 million purse. Gone is the traditional three course rotation with a 54-hole cut, all 80 players in the field will instead play one round at Pebble Beach and one round at Spyglass Hill before heading over to legendary Pebble Beach for two rounds on Saturday and Sunday. There will still be one amateur or celebrity that plays with each player, however, they will only be around for the first two rounds. The final two days will be restricted to the 80 professionals who earned their way into this exclusive field.
While change is sometimes not always celebrated, this event needed a kick in the pants. The number of highly ranked players had been dwindling in recent years, while The American Express in virtually the same type of format had seen their commitments amongst top players rise. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am dates back to to 1937 and the celebrity participation has always been a big part of what made this event go. While they won't be as prevalent this year, they will still be out there for two rounds and it also gives golf fans a chance to watch the best players in the world take a crack on one of the most iconic courses in the world twice over the weekend with everyone there.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be making his first start in this event, while No. 2 Rory McIlroy will be making his first start of the season after going T2-Win in Dubai. Reigning FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland will also tee it up at the site of his 2018 U.S. Amateur victory. Hovland also won low-amateur at Pebble Beach at the 2019 U.S. Open. We will also get to see the professional debut of Nick Dunlap after becoming the first player since Phil Mickelson in 1991 to win on the PGA Tour as an amateur. Matthieu Pavon became the first French golfer to win the PGA Tour last week at Torrey Pines and will be in the field alongside the man that he bested by one shot, Nicolai Hojgaard. AT&T athlete Jordan Spieth will once again serve as the unofficial host at this event, although it is a significantly better field than he's ever faced before.
The weather will be a big talking point this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Temperatures will struggle to crack the upper 50s at any point during the tournament. Rain is also expected to fall in at least three of the four tournament rounds. Wind will be prevalent as it always is around an extremely exposed course on the ocean. The worst of the weather looks like it will be for the final round where heavy rain will fall alongside winds that could gust around 40 mph. It will be a mental grind for these elite players for sure. The winning score for the last eight years has been between 17 and 19-under-par. Even with the stacked field, if we get these cold, rainy and gusty conditions, we very well could see the highest scores in this event since Jimmy Walker won at just 11-under-par in 2014.
Recent Champions
2023 - Justin Rose (-18)
2022 - Tom Hoge (-19)
2021 - Daniel Berger (-18)
2020 - Nick Taylor (-19)
2019 - Phil Mickelson (-19)
2018 - Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
2017 - Jordan Spieth (-19)
2016 - Vaughn Taylor (-17)
2015 - Brandt Snedeker (-22)
2014 - Jimmy Walker (-11)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Scrambling
- Driving Accuracy
Champion's Profile
The first Signature Event of the season at Kapalua featured the largest greens on the PGA Tour. The second Signature Event at Pebble Beach features the smallest greens on the PGA Tour and Spyglass Hill isn't far behind for the one round each player will get there. While players typically are coming into these greens with a lot shorter clubs, the margins are still not that big at all. You can't have a poor approach week and expect to win it's just that simple.
Another factor that will be more important this year than in years past is driving accuracy. The rough is up to at least three inches this week and will certainly not be a place you want to come into these tiny greens from. Add in all the rain expected this week and that will only make driving accuracy that much more important.
Having a quality short game will be extremely beneficial as well this week considering that most of the time when you miss a green in regulation you are likely to be short-sided. There's all kind of short game shots players will face around Pebble Beach and it is certainly an area where you can either gain or lose a lot of strokes. Putting on the other hand will be difficult for everyone. These Poa annua greens typically roll smoother than Torrey Pines, but it still will be a challenge and we will see a lot of short missed putts. Because of the threat of wind the greens will also be quite slow for PGA Tour standards, which may benefit some of the European players more used to slow greens.
This is a week where we're okay with streaky putters if they are accurate off-the-tee and into the greens along with having a solid short game.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Jordan Spieth ($11,400)
Spieth gave us a lot of positives in his first start at Kapalua leading the field in SG: Putting en route to a third place finish. Unlike a number of the other top ranked players, Spieth is a regular at Pebble Beach and has shined over the years here going 11-for-11 with six top-10s and a win in 2017. His success has a lot to do with how good he is with a wedge in his hand both coming into these small targets and around them if he misfires. Spieth has also been positive in SG: Off-the-Tee in eight of his last nine events.
Patrick Cantlay ($11,300)
It's been somewhat of a slow start to the season for Cantlay going T12-T52-T56, but this is an excellent place for Cantlay to get back to his usual contending-self. He is 6-for-6 in this event with four top-11 finishes, including going T3-T4 in his last two attempts. Cantlay lost strokes off-the-tee last week for the first time in over a year and a half. He is a tremendous driver, approach player and a short-game wizard. Cantlay seems to play better when courses play soft as well.
Max Homa ($11,100)
Homa is an underrated driver, exceptionally accurate wedge player and is significantly better than the field average on Poa annua greens. Homa was also second in SG: Around-the-Green at Torrey Pines where he finished T13. All things that have the former Cal standout primed to pick up a fifth PGA Tour win in his home state of California. Homa finished T10-T14-T7 in his last three attempts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The Middle Tier
Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,100)
Cold, windy and rainy, exactly the type of conditions a player like Fitzpatrick thrives in. The Englishman has been in the mix of a strong six months of golf on both sides of the pond with seven top-20s in his last nine starts, including a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in identical conditions to this week. Fitzpatrick's scrambling and putting ability speak for themselves and he's a top-10 player in the world now because of his improvements off-the-tee and with the iron play.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900)
Fleetwood is another player who won't be affected by these conditions in the slightest. He didn't have a great showing at The Sentry, but went over to Dubai and went Win-T14. Fleetwood has been as consistent as anyone over the last year with 15 top-25s and 10 top-10s in his last 19 starts worldwide. Driving, approach play, scrambling, putting, you name it he has been absolutely killing it everywhere. $9,900 is a bargain this week.
J.T. Poston ($9,400)
Poston is another player who has just rolling through fields lately. He has started the 2024 season going T5-6th-T11, which makes it now seven top-10's and ten top-25's in his last 12 starts. Over that stretch Poston has gained on the greens in every one of them and gained on approach in all but two of them. The only real weakness in Poston's game is SG: Off-the-Tee, but that's just because he doesn't hit the ball that far. Distance won't be an issue on these courses and he'll be playing close to everyone from second shot and in, a dangerous proposition for the field.
The Long Shots
Kevin Yu ($8,200)
Why not keep riding the Yu train after back-to-back top-6 finishes. The ball striking has never really been an issue for Yu. Last season he ranked fourth in GIR percentage due to being a pretty lights out wedge player. He has also gained off-the-tee in 17 of his last 19 measured starts. The difference now is that he is not just handing shots away left and right on the greens. On Poa annua surfaces last week Yu gained nearly three strokes to the field. He finished T7 a year ago at Pebble.
Andrew Putnam ($8,000)
Pebble Beach is the type of course that Putnam can contend on. He is a very accurate driver who features stellar iron play and a quality short game. Last season he ranked top-35 in driving accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR percentage, scrambling and SG: Putting. Through three starts in 2024 Putnam hasn't gone far from those numbers and has a top-10 at the Sony Open, his third such finish in his last seven starts. Putnam nearly won this event in 2022 but had to settle for a T6.
Mark Hubbard ($7,300)
Hubbard provides some of the best value in the field this week. He has racked up 10 top-20s in his last 25 starts, including last week at the Farmers Insurance Open where he had the best SG: Approach numbers of his career. Iron play has always been the strength of his game as he has only lost strokes three times during that before mentioned 25-start stretch. Hubbard also is an accurate driver who also is typically pretty solid in the short game department. He's 6-for-8 at Pebble Beach including a T20 last year.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is one of the best fields for a non-major we have ever seen and a reason why first place OWGR points will be nearly 78. Signature Events like this in 2024 will certainly play a huge factor in determining who makes the Olympics this summer. There's no right or wrong way to fill a lineup this week. You have great options at the top, middle and bottom. Any of these 80 players in the field could easily win this week, especially at a short course like Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill.
Speaking of two courses, this would not be a bad week at all to create multiple lineups. The forecast doesn't seem to be much different from Thursday to Friday, but anything can happen on the Monterey Peninsula. Ideally you want to have your golfers playing Spyglass Hill on the worst weather day, as it tends to be not as affected by the conditions in the forest the way Pebble Beach is right on the coastline. Doing a stack on either side of the draw could end up making a difference this week.
All that being said, we know what the formula is to success here. Keep it in the short grass, hit as many of these tiny targets as you can and chip it close when you do miss. The less pressure you can put on the putter the better, especially in wet and windy conditions on these unpredictable greens. The forecast for this tournament is about as bleak as I can remember, but players who regularly play in this event have seen a bad weather day here before and that experience should help.
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