This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
PGA Championship
Course: Quail Hollow Club (7,626 yards, par 71)
Purse: $18,500,000
Winner: $3,330,000 and 750 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The second major championship of the year is finally here and it takes us to a very familiar venue. Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte has been a staple on the PGA Tour calendar for the last two decades. It annually hosted the Wells Fargo Championship, which is now the Truist Championship, in May. The only times it has not hosted that signature event on the PGA Tour has been 2017 when the course prepped to host the PGA Championship and 2022 when Quail got ready to host the Presidents Cup. Last week the Truist Championship was held at Philadelphia Cricket Club with the PGA Championship back at Quail Hollow this week.
Whenever we come to Quail Hollow the spotlight shines on Rory McIlroy, having won at this course four times previously. It just so happens this year he comes in as the most recent major winner, as he completed the career grand slam at The Masters a month ago. Ending an 11-year winless streak at the majors, the question is now will the floodgates open again for McIlroy going forward? He won the first four majors of his career in a 15-start span and something similar could certainly be in the cards for the future Hall-of-Famer.
All that said, McIlroy is still not the betting favorite coming into the week. That title once again rests on the shoulders of World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is coming off a dominant eight-stroke victory at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Scheffler was the lone top player to not tee it up last week at the Truist Championship, and he will come in rested looking to win his first major championship not at Augusta National. Hopefully this PGA Championship doesn't involve warming up in a jail cell prior to his second round like what was the case in Valhalla a year ago.
The last major storyline involves a player who has not won anywhere since 2022, and not won a major since 2017. Jordan Spieth can join McIlroy and become the seventh player to complete the career Grand Slam. Spieth is starting to play some better golf after undergoing offseason wrist surgery. He has three top-10s and six top-20 finishes this year, but whether or not he has enough to challenge in a major championship remains to be seen. Quail Hollow could bring some good vibes to Spieth as he went 5-0-0 in the Presidents Cup in 2022, and it was the first venue in which he had a chance to complete the slam back in 2017.
The defending PGA Championship winner is Xander Schauffele and he won his first major in historic fashion at Valhalla. Schauffele shot 21-under-par (263) to post the lowest 72-hole score in major championship history. He needed every bit of it to win with Bryson DeChambeau finishing just one shot behind. The players just tore up Valhalla a year ago, but Quail Hollow is expected to show a little more teeth. Justin Thomas won at 8-under-par by two strokes the last time the PGA Championship was hosted at Quail Hollow in 2017. McIlroy won at Quail Hollow a year ago at the Wells Fargo at 17-under, but that was by five strokes over second, eight strokes over third and 11 shots over fourth. The field scoring average was 71.73 on this lengthy par-71.
The story this week will be how does Quail Hollow drain with all the early week rain expected to fall. The Charlotte area has gotten hammered in recent days and it's not expected to let up until Tuesday afternoon. There's simply no way to get around it, this will not be a firm and fast test at the PGA Championship. The fairways will have very little runout and it should be a little easier to stop the ball on these typically fast greens. The good news is that we could stay dry for the four tournament rounds and potentially avoid any delays. The winds should be manageable, with the highest gusts coming on Saturday. All that said, it's not going to be Valhalla, but don't be surprised to see a few players crack double-digits this week.
Recent Champions
2024 - Xander Schauffele (-21) at Valhalla
2023 - Brooks Koepka (-9) at Oak Hill
2022 - Justin Thomas (-5) at Southern Hills
2021 - Phil Mickelson (-6) at Kiawah Island
2020 - Collin Morikawa (-13) at TPC Harding Park
2019 - Brooks Koepka (-8) at Bethpage Black
2018 - Brooks Koepka (-16) at Bellerive
2017 - Justin Thomas (-8) at Quail Hollow
2016 - Jimmy Walker (-14) at Baltusrol
2015 - Jason Day (-20) at Whistling Straits
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- SG: Approach/Proximity 200+ Yards
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
Champion's Profile
There's really no way to get around it. Quail Hollow will be a bomber's paradise this week. The guys that can carry the ball the furthest will be able to fly a lot of pesky fairways bunkers and they won't have to worry about a lot of rollout on wet bermuda fairways. The bermuda rough should play a little tougher than it normally does in the Wells Fargo, but still you are going to need length to challenge for the win this week, minus just a career putting week like Kevin Kisner had at the PGA Championship back in 2017 when he led after each of the first three rounds.
The cool thing about Quail Hollow is that they do have the sub-air system under these greens, which could really help to take some of this heavy moisture out. They most likely will still be somewhat receptive, but not nearly as easy as it normally would be given the amount of rainfall early in the week. All that to say, iron play will be very important once again. I think it's also worth looking at some of the longer proximity buckets as well, with the majority of players hitting some longer clubs into these beefy par-4s.
Putting and short game also will have its own impact on this event. Quail Hollow has a lot of false fronts and short-grass runoff areas, which can be quite challenging, especially given it will be played off bermuda. The crispy wedge players who can nip the ball the best will be able to gain strokes around these greens. These are also very familiar greens to most of the players, so course history and previous putting numbers should be a factor. Bottom line, Quail Hollow is a very difficult golf course in any condition and you can't have a down week in any part of your game and expect to win. The bombers who get hot on the greens are going to be really tough to beat.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($12,700)
McIlroy is the best driver on the planet and is having the best putting year of his career. He is a four-time winner at Quail Hollow and is always one to watch if it plays a little wet. There's really not much more you need to say. The only question is how does he respond to winning the career grand slam now that he has achieved everything in the game. I lean towards it freeing up the 36-year-old to run up his win and major count.
Scottie Scheffler ($12,500)
Scheffler is still the No. 1 ranked player in the world, but you know he wants to prove he is the best by winning another major. He ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee, first in SG: Approach, first in proximity, seventh in GIR percentage, first in scrambling and 22nd in SG: Putting. Good luck beating that on a very difficult course. The only knock on Scheffler is that his only time seeing Quail Hollow was at the 2022 Presidents Cup, where he actually didn't play that well. He finished top-8 in four of the last five PGA Championships, however.
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,400)
DeChambeau has figured out the major formula and always needs to be considered in these events going forward. He's finished T6 or better in four of the last five major championships. DeChambeau has finished top-five in his last four starts overall, including a victory at LIV Korea last time out. He's got the ideal length for Quail Hollow and has really dialed in both his short game and putting.
The Middle Tier
Justin Thomas ($10,600)
Thomas is a little high for this range, but there's quite a few players ahead of him that shouldn't be. Thomas is coming off a T2 at the Truist and a win at the RBC Heritage in his last two starts. He also had a runner-up at the Valspar in his final start before The Masters. Putting had been the big issue for Thomas over the last couple years, but that issue seems to be in the review mirror having gained on the greens in his last five starts. The iron play continues to be excellent along with his world-class short game.
Min Woo Lee ($9,800)
I spoke about the importance of bombers this week earlier, and not many hit the ball further than Lee. The reason I'm high on the Aussie's chances is not just his extreme length, but also his touch. Lee ranks ninth in SG: Around-the-Green and 11th in SG: Putting this season. It's been a bit of a struggle since his victory at the Houston Open, but this course should suit his strengths perfectly. It would be hard to not see Lee get in the mix at some point the way everything seems to line up.
Patrick Reed ($9,200)
Reed might not have the ideal length, but he can never be ruled out at any course you need to grind at. Quail Hollow was a great place for him when he played on the PGA Tour racking up three top-eight finishes, including a T2 at the 2017 PGA Championship. He is playing some really strong golf this year as well with five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, including the solo third at The Masters. The iron play has taken a step forward on top of that excellent short game and putting.
The Long Shots
Keith Mitchell ($8,500)
Mitchell took full advantage of his sponsors exemption into the Truist Championship last week with a T7 finish after an opening-round 10-under 61. That was his fifth straight top-20 finish on the PGA Tour. Mitchell continues to be one of the best drivers on Tour at fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee. He has also gained on approach in nine of his last ten measured starts. Mitchell has had some good showings at Quail Hollow in the past, with a T3 in 2021 and a T8 in 2019.
Bud Cauley ($8,200)
In a field this deep, getting a player like Cauley who ranks seventh in SG: Total and fifth in adjusted scoring average in the low-$8K range seems like a big steal. This will be his first major start since the 2020 PGA Championship, but with Quail Hollow being a regular Tour stop, Cauley has six previous starts at the Charlotte course. His lone MC this year was in Puerto Rico and he scored a T6 finish at another elite field at THE PLAYERS.
Maverick McNealy ($7,700)
This might be the best field in golf, but this is a disrespectful price on a man who is 12th in the OWGR and 11th in the FedExCup. McNealy might not have a great history in majors, but he's still be a threat in a number of other strong fields this year like a runner-up at The Genesis Invitaitonal and a T3 at the RBC Heritage. He has the length to compete at Quail Hollow and ranks top-40 on Tour in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and SG: Putting.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
There's a reason why Scheffler, McIlroy and DeChambeau are the lone players under 10-1 this week. They've been the most consistent threats in majors of late and are playing the best golf of anyone right now. Most DFS players should probably start with one of those three, but DeChambeau being at a $1K+ discount does open up some more potential lineup options. For reference, taking DeChambeau and then a red-hot Thomas at $10,600 leaves DFS players an average of $9,500 for their remaining four golfers.
While we were not very worried about missed cuts at The Masters, the PGA Championship has the deepest field in golf and there will more than likely be a number of highly owned players who fail to make the weekend, despite it being top-70 and ties, as opposed to the standard top-65 and ties on the PGA Tour. Our first objective is to make sure all six players make the cut. Given the course and the expected conditions, if you drive it really well and are sharp around the greens, that's certainly going to raise your floor quite a bit.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, tournament participation and overall golfer performance, head to RotoWire's latest golf news or follow @RotoWireGolf on X.
