Weekly Preview: PGA Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

PGA Championship

Oak Hill Country Club
Rochester, NY

The PGA Tour heads to New York for the second major of the season.

Before we get to that, a quick note on this past week's event. Jason Day returned to the winner's circle with an impressive showing at the Byron Nelson, and he seems to be peaking just in time for another run at a PGA Championship -- the only major he has won to date. 

Following Day's first win in five years, we must revisit an age-old debate: Is it a good thing to win the event directly in front of a major? Obviously any victory comes with benefits, but the numbers seem to indicate it can hurt the winner's prospects the following week. Then again, we have no way of measuring the impact of a win on a given player, so we still have no way of knowing if it's correlation or causation when analyzing why most players that win the preceding event fail to win the major following it. Whatever the case, I'm firmly in the camp of fading anyone that won the week before -- unless his surname is Rahm or Scheffler.

Speaking of which, it feels like there is a changing of the guard atop the PGA Tour hierarchy. Entering the season there was thought to be a "Big 3", but that sentiment has definitely changed to a "Top 2." Now, if McIlroy snaps his major slump at Oak Hill we'd be right back to where we started, but I don't see that happening, and as such I think we'll be in the Rahm-Scheffler era for a while.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Justin Thomas shot a final-round 67 on his way to a playoff victory over Will Zalatoris.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (15-2)

As mentioned above, it's all about Rahm and Scheffler at the moment, so it's no surprise to see those two clear of the others when looking at the betting board. The PGA Championship rotates tracks yearly, so there is little course history to go on. All we have is current form and previous success -- or lack thereof -- in majors. Rahm checks all the boxes, and it will be interesting to see how he backs up his Masters win. I don't like playing odds this short, but I might make an exception this time around.

Scottie Scheffler (15-2)

Scheffler opened a tad behind Rahm on the odds chart, but as of print time the two were neck and neck. It is a little concerning that Scheffler failed to close this past week, but there's no shame in losing to Day. And, as noted, maybe it's a good thing he didn't wind up with the win. The only question regarding Scheffler is his putting, which has slipped a bit this season. Luckily, it will be more about hitting fairways and greens this week, so Scheffler is a good option -- even at this price.

Rory McIlroy (13-1)

Scheffler and Rahm are the clear top two right now, but McIlroy is distinctly third, and that's because the oddsmakers know the public loves to bet on him. The problems here are twofold, however. The first is McIlroy's form, which has been off since the Masters. The second is McIlroy's lack of success in majors over the past decade. He has made a few runs since 2014 but has so far failed to become a five-time major champion. If it wasn't a thing a few years ago, it is now. There's a mental hurdle McIlroy must get over, and I don't see that happening this week. Then again, I did say that the only way he wins a Masters is to enter without pressure, and nobody is picking him at Oak Hill, so let's see what happens when he finds himself under the radar.

THE NEXT TIER

Tony Finau (21-1)

For years we wondered if "this was the week" for Finau's first full-field win, and that finally came in August of 2021. Since then he has picked up several more victories, and now we need to start focusing on the majors. Finau certainly has the game to win a major, but something seemed to prevent him from winning more earlier in his career, and that same invisible force might be holding him back from winning a big one. I think Finau is a different golfer now, and if he can put himself in position to win I think he can deliver.

Dustin Johnson (24-1)

It's a small sample size, but the last time a high-profile golfer had success in a LIV event right before a major he nearly won the Masters. Johnson fits that profile this time around as an accomplished LIV golfer who appears to be in top form. Will that translate to success at Oak Hill? At this price it might be working making a bet and finding out. Johnson is not at the peak of his powers any longer, but he's less than three years removed from winning a major by five shots, and I'm sure he's still capable of stringing together four quality rounds.

Cameron Smith (32-1)

This pick is kind of piggybacking off the McIlroy theory. Leading into the Masters, Smith was considered the LIV golfer with the best chance to win, but it did not play out that way. For a number of reasons there are at least three LIV players getting more attention than Smith this week, so perhaps this is the time to strike. Smith is the best player on the LIV side, so one run-of-the-mill showing at the Masters isn't going to scare me off.

LONG SHOTS

Tommy Fleetwood (55-1)

To close out the "against the grain" theory, let's take a look at Fleetwood. He gained the attention of golf fans due to his play in the majors, and five years ago it seemed like a sure thing he would win one at some point. However, he is still searching for it. I'm not sure it's accurate to say that Fleetwood has regressed, but he certainly hasn't taken the next step. With that said, he's got the game -- and specifically, the ball striking -- to excel at Oak Hill.

Abraham Ancer (190-1)

Ancer was on his way to becoming one of the better players on the PGA Tour before defecting to LIV Golf, and since then it feels like he's fallen off the map. He's still playing well, though, which is why I don't understand these odds. In addition to that, his track record at the PGA Championship is pretty impressive. Sure, they were all played on different courses, but he has not missed a cut in four PGA Championship starts and he placed top-10 in each of his last two appearances.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - Scheffler was trendier heading into the Masters, so I'm assuming more OAD players have Rahm available, and thus expect him to be picked more than anyone else. I think it will come down to these two guys on Sunday, so if you have either one of them available, I would certainly go with him.

Moderately-owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - Every golfer in the second tier above is going to be plenty popular. There's not a lot separating them, but I've got a feeling about Schauffele. He has some steam, but not so much that everyone is paying attention. He has been bet up to the fourth favorite, which may or might not mean anything but does signal that he has plenty of believers.

Lightly-owned Pick: Adam Scott - Scott is listed at 75-1, so I could have included him among the long shots above. However, I couldn't pass up the price on Ancer, so I had to wait until now to write about Scott. He is playing really well, but not to the point that he's a trendy pick. I'm not sure if Scott has enough to win a major at this point of his career, but he's certainly capable of putting together four good rounds.

Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - Koepka reminded everyone at Augusta just how good he can be when he puts his mind to it, but I think that may have been a result of lowered expectations. Now that he's front of mind again, I'm not certain we'll see the same results. It's almost like fading the previous week's winner -- sometimes in majors you have to zig when everyone else zags.

This Week: Tony Finau - I no longer have Rahm, Scheffler nor Schauffele available, so Finau is the play. Though I like the lack of attention McIlroy is getting, I'm not sure his game or head is where it needs to be so I'm passing. I considered Johnson and Smith, but I like Smith better at one of the Opens and there's too much steam on DJ at the moment, so I'm skipping them as well. Finau looks to be in the sweet spot, as his form is solid and there is not much talk about him at the moment.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Xander Schauffele ($11,100)
Middle Range: Sungjae Im ($10,200)
Lower Range: Gary Woodland ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Xander Schauffele - I'm not taking any chances with my streak, and I would prefer to go as high up the ladder as possible. With Scheffler and Rahm no longer available, I had to find the most reliable golfer in the next tier. By my calculations, that's Schauffele. He made the cut in 18 of his past 20 major appearances, and that's a success rate I'm not sure anyone else on Tour can match.

Previous Results