Weekly Preview: WM Phoenix Open

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale
Scottsdale, AZ

The PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale for the Biggest Party in Golf!

I'm not going to lie, as the first elevated event of the season, and with a full field, this week feels different. Perhaps it's because I'm in a bubble of golf fans, but the excitement seems to have reached a new level for a tournament in February. For every up there is a down, however, and the non-elevated events have certainly taken a hit. I won't harp on that too much, but anyone that followed the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this past week could tell there was something missing, and I'm not just talking about many of the best players in the world. That's the trade-off though, right? Befor there were elevated events, there were plenty of "soft" spots on the schedule. You can't have "must-see" tournaments every week of the year. I'm all-in on this new format as it not only gets the elite golfers together more often, it also requires more strategy for fantasy golf players, and I always invite more strategy. 

Now, let's dive into this week and what we can expect. For starters, we've got a ton of elite golfers in the field. Nearly all the best PGA Tour golfers will be in attendance. We've also got one of the best theaters in all of golf -- the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale, which as we know, can get a little rowdy. But hey, it's just once a year, and the golfers are cool with it, so we can let that slide. This tournament will take us right up to kick-off of the Super Bowl, so this will be an elite weekend for sports fans.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler shot a final-round 67 on his way to a playoff victory over Patrick Cantlay.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (7-1)

Rahm enters as only a slight favorite because the other darling of the betting public, Rory McIlroy, is also in attendance. Rahm is coming in off a disappointing performance at the Famers, where he managed only a T7. The shame! The good news for Rahm is that although he failed to meet expectations his last time out, he did play well for most of the tournament. He should have no trouble finding his best form in Phoenix, as he's never had an off week here. In fact, Rahm has finished top-20 in all seven of his starts here. The only problem with his track record is a lack of a single top-5. With that said, he's going to give himself a chance to win, and even at this number he's worth a look.

Rory McIlroy (8-1)

McIlroy and Rahm are pretty much co-favorites, as no one comes close to the odds they are getting to win. Unlike Rahm, McIlroy's odds are based solely on his name and his form, as he doesn't really have a track record to speak of at TPC Scottsdale. McIlroy's appearance here in 2021 was his only one, and he finished T13. He won in his most recent start overseas and has played extremely well over the past 12 months, but I believe a lot of that was due to the motivation LIV Golf provided. He had it in his most recent start, as Patrick Reed was breathing down his neck. However, that won't be the case this time around, and absent that spark and with little course history, I don't expect McIlroy to be at his best.

Scottie Scheffler (13-1)

Who would have thought that just 10 months after one of the greatest heaters in recent history, Scheffler is again needing to prove himself? Okay, he doesn't have to prove anything, but is he the guy who was the best player in the world for a few months this past year, or is he simply one of the best players in the world? He hasn't won since the 2022 Masters, and although he's played well in spots, I'm not alone in wondering if he's going to reclaim the throne or simply remain a top-5 type. We should get a good idea this week, as he's the defending champion and obviously knows how to get around this track. If you are bullish on his long-term prospects, this would be a great spot to get him.

THE NEXT TIER

Collin Morikawa (18-1)

Morikawa doesn't have nearly the track record here that many of his peers do, but his current form is among the best on Tour. In his two starts this season, Morikawa finished runner-up and solo third. He looks like the two-time major champion he is right now, and if he's truly on top of his game he will have a chance to win in the desert. One thing to consider with anyone outside of McIlroy or Rahm is the boosted odds you are getting. If Morikawa is indeed back, you won't see odds this high again this season.

Max Homa (21-1)

I feel like this is a bit too much to ask of Homa after winning in his previous start, but man, this guy is good. A win this week would enter him into the "elite" discussion, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. There are two things in Homa's way, but he can overcome both. The first is the field. It's going to be difficult for anyone to wind up on top among this group of players. Second is his history here. He has made the cut in all four starts but has just one top-10.

Hideki Matsuyama (28-1)

There was a time when you penciled in Matsuyama for this event months in advance, and while he hasn't won here since 2017, he has still managed to play well. Matsuyama withdrew in 2018 and finished T42 in 2021, but other than that, he's been pretty good here since 2017, with two finishes inside the top 16 and one inside the top 10. Form is a question mark, but if he's close, he will be in the mix come Sunday.

LONG SHOTS

Sam Burns (42-1)

Sometimes you just have to make a pick on principle alone. Sure, Burns is not having the best year, but he's still one of the better players out there, and odds like this should be reserved for guys who don't really know how to win. Well, Burns knows how to win. The problem for Burns is his track record here, which is not good. But he only came into his own a couple years ago, so I can forgive him for missing the cut in both 2019 and 2020.

Chris Kirk (100-1)

If you are thinking about going way off the map, Kirk might be your guy. I say that knowing full well that anyone outside the top tier of golfers probably doesn't stand much of a chance of winning. With that said, Kirk has made eight cuts in 11 starts in Phoenix, and his form is solid, with a pair of third-place results in his past two starts.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - Gone are the days when you saved the best players for the majors. The prize money is pretty similar in the elevated events, so if you see an ideal spot for someone, it's best to go for it. Not everyone in your league is going to pick up on this, so perhaps people will still be saving the likes of Rahm for the majors. However, I have a feeling many will go with Rahm this week.

Moderately-owned Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - As mentioned earlier, there was a time when Matsuyama was the clear pick here, but that's not the case any longer. Throw in the fact that the field is much stronger now and there's a chance Matsuyama could be lost in the shuffle a bit. My guess is that anyone trying to avoid the elite players will likely be on Matsuyama, though.

Lightly-owned Pick: Chris Kirk - I'm guessing that most OAD players will be going somewhat big, but for those trying to find a sleeper, Kirk looks like a good option. Though he's not likely to win, I'd be surprised if he played poorly. The risk of course is that the purse is pretty big and you'd hate to miss out on a piece of it by not going big enough.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - I'll use the disclaimer again, as I need to point out that I'm not expecting JT to play poorly, but rather not meet expectations. He's currently 21-1, and he played well here over the past four years, so he's going to get plenty of attention. Still, I don't like his form right now. He didn't play much over the past six months, and when he did, he wasn't really himself. I'd rather just wait for him to get his game back before diving in.

This Week: Jon Rahm - I really hate to use Rahm this early in the season, but as mentioned, the purses at the majors aren't going to be much bigger than the one this week, so I'm going to give him the nod while he's seemingly on a heater. I don't buy that he cooled at all in his previous start. He just failed to close, and getting back to his college stomping grounds should provide an extra boost. He's probably irritated about failing to win here, which just adds to the motivation.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($12,100)
Middle Range: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600)
Lower Range: Sam Ryder ($8,200)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - Unlike the new strategy for the OAD pools, nothing much has changed in this format, as you still want to save the elite players for the majors. The reason being, it's more difficult to make the cut at the majors and you need reliable players in those spots. Matsuyama has never missed a cut in this event, and the only time he failed to play the weekend was when he was forced to withdraw with an injury.

Previous Results