WGC Match Play Championship: DJ's Tough to Beat

The PGA Tour finally breaks free from the grips of the Sunshine state and heads west to Texas as we get ready for the first major of the year. Before we get ahead of ourselves though, we've got what some might say, is the most exciting Wednesday all year on the PGA Tour. Well, everyone outside of those playing in pro-am practice rounds would say that. Anyhow, this week is quite the anomaly on the PGA Tour as there is a lot of excitement early in the week, but as the field thins, the excitement level generally wains unless the big names advance. They've made tweaks to the format to address this, but nothing has really worked. In fact, ditching the one-and-done nature of the first three days seems to have had a negative impact as several match-ups on Friday are now meaningless, but I digress. For fantasy purposes, you want to be careful this week as elite players are just as likely as anyone else to get eliminated early, so you'll want to aim for the middle ground when selecting your one-and-done golfer this week.                                                                      

This week: WGC Match Play Championship – Austin Country Club, Austin, Texas

Last Year: Bubba Watson defeated Kevin Kisner 7 & 6.  

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (9-1) 

When at his best, Johnson is probably the best golfer in the world, but this is not the NCAA tourney and chalk rarely finds its way to the top. That said, DJ got a great draw and is heavily favored to come out of his group. Since there's no way of knowing what happens beyond the group stage, all you can really do is figure out the likelihood that said player will get out of the group stage.                                   
Rory McIlroy (9-1)   

It's safe to say that no one on the planet is playing at McIlroy's level right now as he's amassed some outstanding numbers already in 2019, but this format can bring the hottest golfer to their knees. The round-robin format takes some of the variability out of this event, but there still remains a large amount of luck in play this week. With that said, McIlroy also has a fairly easy draw, with only Matthew Fitzpatrick standing in his way during the group stage.                                          
Justin Thomas (14-1) 

If we are judging these guys by their round-robin competition, then JT might be the favorite. JT has two first-timers in his group and Keegan Bradley, who has been terrible at this event over the years. Now, there's more to picking a winner this week than just who can emerge from the group stage, but again, everything after the group stage is such a crapshoot that it's tough to predict future matchups. JT finished in the top-4 here last year and should make it to the weekend again this year.                                                 

MID-TIER GOLFERS                        

Jon Rahm (16-1) 

Rahm failed to win a match last year at this event, but the format likely played into that as he had nothing to play for on day three. The year prior, he was runner-up, which indicates that if his game is sharp, he can get around this course in an efficient manner. Rahm does have a potential road block in Matt Kuchar, but if he can get out of the first round, he's as likely as anyone to win this week.                                                

Brooks Koepka (22-1) 

At first glance, it looks like Koepka caught a tough break with Alex Noren in the group stage, but considering Noren has been way off of his game this season, Koepka should be able to get through with little trouble. Outside of Noren, there's Hao Tong Li, who went 0-3 last year and Tom Lewis, who is a first-timer. Beyond group stage, Koepka will likely be favored in almost any match with a few exceptions.                                                      

Bubba Watson (28-1) 

If Jordan Spieth was, well, Jordan Spieth, then Watson might be in trouble, but considering Spieth hasn't been himself this season, Watson should cruise through the group stage. Billy Horschel and Kevin Na are the other two competitors in this group, but neither has done much in this format. Watson won this event last year and he's been rounding into form lately.                                                   
LONGSHOTS

Patrick Cantlay (50-1)  

With Tiger Woods and Brandt Snedeker in his group, Cantlay's chances don't look good on paper, but when you consider that Woods is not sharp right now and Snedeker hasn't exactly fared well at this event in recent years, then Cantlay's prospects suddenly look better. Cantlay failed to advance out of the group stage last year, but he did manage to win two of three matches. This might be the only time you'll see Cantlay at 50-1 odds or worse all season.                                        

Kevin Kisner (66-1) 

Kisner is simply a bulldog. There's nothing pretty about his game, but he just manages to get the job done. Kisner was routed in the final last year at this event, but he played some excellent golf prior to that match. His group is tough as there's loads of talent with Tony Finau and Keith Mitchell and the match-play savant Ian Poulter, but if anyone can muscle his way through, it's Kisner. Hey, no one expected a run from his last year and look year he ended up.                                           

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Bubba Watson - Watson is the defending champ and he's been playing well lately, he'll definitely be highly-owned this week. There are very specific spots to use Watson throughout the season and most of them have already passed, so if you still have him, this look like a good spot.      

Moderately Owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - There is a subset out there that might be experiencing FOMO concerning McIlroy this week. There have been several good spots to use him already and he's been on-fire for most of the season, which likely leaves only a handful of owners in your league with McIlroy as an option, but if he's available, he'll likely be used be quite a few owners as to capitalize on his hot streak.    

Lightly Owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - I can guarantee that Cantlay will not be a popular pick this week as he hasn't played his best golf lately and he's also in Tiger's group, but Cantlay has the talent to win this week and he's not at the level where you would save him for the majors yet. If you need to make a move in your league, Cantlay is your guy this week.         

Buyer Beware: Justin Rose - Rose has a tricky group to maneuver early with Gary Woodland and Eddie Pepperell and his overall record at this event is nothing special. Besides, if there is anyone in the field that you'd want to save for a major, it's Rose. To be honest, he's too valuable to use this week.          

Last week: Jim Furyk (T18) - $84,420; Season - $3,489,304  

This week: Webb Simpson - I was ready to pull the trigger on Cantlay in this spot, but I discovered that I used him last fall. With Bubba already off the board, my options were limited, but Simpson is no default pick. His group stage opponents have a terrible combined record at this event and Simpson has been right around 50%. He's not my first option, but I do believe he'll make it to the weekend.                                  

FANDUEL PICKS - Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship 

High/Mid/Low: Jhonnatan Vegas ($11,400)/Sam Burns ($9,900)/D.J. Trahan ($7,500)