This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Pebble Beach, California
Pebble Beach Golf Links - Par 72 - 6,972 yards
Spyglass Hill Golf Course - Par 72 - 7,041 yards
Field - 80 entrants
Purse - $20M
The Preview
The second of eight Signature Events on the PGA Tour's 2024 schedule, this year's unique AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am invites a limited 80-man field to compete for their share of a $20 million purse. Differing from past editions, Monterey Peninsula Country Club has been dropped from the course rotation, so the amateur pairings must say goodbye to their professional playing partners a day early after completing Friday's second round.
Featuring one of the shortest layouts we'll see all season, Pebble Beach serves as the test for the final 36 holes. Without much trouble off the tee, wide landing areas will guide these players into tiny but slow poa greens, emphasizing the importance of precision on the abundance of shorter approach shots that come from 75-150 yards out. As for the weather, wet and windy conditions throughout the tournament are expected to play a significant factor, so keep an eye on the forecast when contemplating lineup stacks.
Recent Champions
2023 - Justin Rose
2022 - Tom Hoge
2021 - Daniel Berger
2020 - Nick Taylor
2019 - Phil Mickelson
2018 - Ted Potter Jr.
2017 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Vaughn Taylor
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Proximity: 75-150 yards
SG: Putting (poa)
Scrambling
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Patrick Cantlay - $44
Cantlay is probably a bit overpriced after finishing outside the top-50 in back-to-back starts at The American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open, but this should help reduce his ownership percentages, which might otherwise balloon due to admirable course history. He placed T4-T3-T11 in his last three trips to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, notably ranking second among the field in SG: Approach here in 2021 when he also matched the course record with a first-round 62.
Max Homa - $44
Similarly to Cantlay, Homa could see his exposure in lineups get squeezed compared to other sites with the trio of super elites in Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland all perched just $1 higher on Yahoo's board at $45. Homa is coming off a top-15 performance at Torrey Pines where he finished No. 2 in SG: Around-the-Green and T4 in scrambling, while rising to second in Sand Saves Gained over his last 24 measured rounds. He's placed no worse than 14th in three straight outings at Pebble Beach, gaining strokes both with his irons and putter in each of these three instances.
Xander Schauffele - $43
A third consecutive California native in this section, you'll actually find Schauffele above the aforementioned Cantlay and Homa in the outright odds to win this week. Schauffele has yet to finish outside the top-10 through his first three starts of the 2024 season, most recently tying for ninth at the FIO where he paced the tournament in SG: Off-the-Tee. He tied for third at the 2019 U.S. Open hosted by Pebble Beach, and over his past 50 rounds specifically on poa greens, Schauffele is fourth in both SG: Putting and three-putt avoidance.
Glue Guys
Jordan Spieth - $36
A past champion here in 2017, Spieth is the ultimate horse for the course this week. He's a perfect 11-for-11 in cuts made to go along with six top-10s throughout his career at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Spieth's creative shot-making and short-game abilities will be on full display when the conditions worsen, but keep in mind he'll be mega-chalky at just $36.
Justin Thomas - $32
Thomas also figures to carry inflated ownership at a questionably low $32 salary, as he should realistically be swapped with either Brian Harman ($42) or Keegan Bradley ($40) for more competitive balance. Thomas opened his 2024 campaign with a T3 at The American Express, and his formidable wedge play from 75-125 yards is a massive advantage at Pebble.
Ludvig Aberg - $27
Aberg isn't exactly a course fit with driver likely being taken out of his hands often on these short layouts, but he's still guaranteed to play 16 total par-5s this week in a scoring format that will require par-breakers to separate from the field. Additionally, this $27 salary is misaligned with his overall betting and DFS market value, so Yahoo DFS provides an inexpensive avenue to estimating that Aberg's talent will travel. He's tallied three eagles across his last eight rounds, and over his past 24 rounds, Aberg ranks second in both Prox: 75-100 and Opportunities Gained.
Bargain Bin
Hideki Matsuyama - $21
Matsuyama is second to none in proximity from 100-125 yards over his last 24 rounds, and although he's an AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am debutant, he notched a top-25 here at the 2019 U.S. Open while gaining 5.9 strokes on his approaches en route to 20 total par-breakers. Matsuyama belongs around the $30 mark, especially after finishing fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green on the South Course at Torrey Pines last week.
Beau Hossler - $20
A collective 27-under-par across the past two editions of this event, Hossler should foster attention at the $20 minimum after a sixth-place effort at last week's FIO where he gained five strokes on the greens. A hot putter isn't the only positive, either, as Hossler sits top-15 in both GIR and Opportunities Gained over his last 24 rounds.
Mark Hubbard - $20
Hubbard vaulted himself near the top of plenty short-term models after gaining 8.4 strokes with his irons at Torrey Pines last week, which was good enough to pace the entire FIO field in SG: Approach as he hit the second-most greens in regulation as well. He also ranks third in putting from 10-15 feet over his last 50 rounds on poa, and he's made the cut in three straight visits to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
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