UFC Shanghai DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
The UFC returns to Shanghai on Saturday for a card headlined by a hopeful light heavyweight contender, as well as a former bantamweight champion. With a lot of big favorites on the card, the key to DFS success here will be picking the ones most likely to find a finish.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Johnny Walker (21-9) vs. Zhang Mingyang (19-6)
DraftKings Salaries: Walker ($6,800), Mingyang ($9,400)
Betting Odds: Walker (+275), Mingyang (-345)
Walker is set for his fourth career main event spot despite coming off back-to-back stoppage losses, though he does still sit at No. 13 in the UFC Light Heavyweight rankings. The loss to Magomed Ankalaev in January of 2024 was understandable, considering Ankalaev would go on to become champion, while the first-round out at the hands of ageing veteran Volkan Oezdemir in June of 2024 is a bit less excusable.
Walker has taken some time off since then, but not necessarily by choice. He fell out of a fight against Bogdan Guskov (No. 10) in January due to an undisclosed injury, and another scheduled matchup against Azamat Murzakanov (No. 11) fell through last June. This matchup against the No. 14-ranked Zhang is arguably less favorable than either of those.
Zhang is undefeated in three fights since earning his roster spot via the Road to the UFC show. All three of his wins are via Round 1 stoppage, with his most recent appearance coming against Anthony Smith last April. The unranked Smith was his best opponent of that stretch, so Walker, despite the recent results, represents Zhang's toughest test to date.
This feels like a showcase spot for the 27-year-old Zhang, who gets to fight in front of his home country against a vulnerable opponent. He's a sizable betting favorite, and oddsmakers are also giving him a (-245) chance to win by knockout. A convincing win would catapult him to the top-10 of a thin light heavyweight division that has immediate room for advancement.
Walker is past prospect status at the age of 33. He's always been known for his athleticism and acrobatics, but those traits have largely failed him when the level of competition has risen. That said, Walker has fought some of the best at 205 pounds -- there's a case to be made that any of his six UFC losses are far superior opponents than anyone Zhang has faced.
Despite the general lack of experience, Zhang is rightfully favored and has to be the pick. Zhang is a finisher, with 13 of his 19 pro wins coming via KO/TKO. Walker, meanwhile, has shown a questionable chin of late. You can't be getting knocked out by middling fighters like Oezdemir and expect to remain in the title picture.
That being said, I couldn't blame anyone for sprinkling in Walker in mass entry. There's definitely an experience gap, and Walker typically finishes his wins. There's slate-breaking upside here, and the money saved affords lineup flexibility on a slate with a lot of heavy favorites.
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Zhang
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Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Brian Ortega (16-4) vs. Aljamain Sterling (24-5)
DraftKings Salaries: Ortega ($7,200), Sterling ($9,000)
Betting Odds: Ortega (+230), Sterling (-285)
Ortega enters having lost three of his last four, but that's a bit misleading. One of those losses was to Yair Rodriguez, which ended due to a shoulder injury, and Ortega was able to avenge it upon his return. The others were to current champion Alexander Volkanovski, and title contender (and potential future champ) Diego Lopes. Sterling would be an underdog against either of those opponents as well.
Sterling moved up to featherweight after an August 2023 loss to Sean O'Malley, as he wanted to pave the way for teammate Merab Dvalishvili to become champion at 135 (which later materialized). He took a unanimous decision over Calvin Kattar in his 145-pound debut, but lost a unanimous decision to Movsar Evloev last December. The latter was largely a grappling match, as the two combatants landed just 20 significant strikes combined.
It's probably not an over-simplification to say that Ortega is submission-or-bust here. His upset win against Rodriguez was via an arm-triangle choke, and when he was rising up the rankings, he pulled several late guillotine chokes in fights he was losing. Ortega has been hopelessly outclassed in striking when facing the best in the world, giving up 106 significant strikes to Lopes, 214 to Volkanovski and a record-worst 290 to Holloway. Needless to say, he's taken some life-changing beatings in fights that have remained upright.
Sterling is a more-than-respectable striker, averaging 4.41 significant strikes landed per minute compared to just 2.21 absorbed. His grappling has also been tremendous of late. In the Evloev fight, he recorded more takedowns and control time, in addition to logging two reversals. Sterling has also been competing in grappling matches in between fights, going 3-0 since 2023 with wins over Mike Grundy, Chase Hooper and Jay Jay Wilson.
All told, this is an easy pick. Sterling has more ways to win and is the more well-rounded fighter. It would take a monumental mistake to leave an opening for Ortega, and I just don't see it happening, even if he has more chances in a fight scheduled for five rounds.
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Sterling
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich (19-3) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (14-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Pavlovich ($8,900), Cortes-Acosta ($7,300)
Betting Odds: Pavlovich (-225), Cortes-Acosta (+185)
This is an incredibly overlooked heavyweight matchup, as we have the No. 3-ranked Pavlovich against the No. 6-ranked Cortes-Acosta. A convincing win for either man could propel them right into the title picture, depending on the results of the October title fight between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane.
Pavlovich is at a bit of a disadvantage in that respect because he was finished in the first round in a November 2023 interim title fight between him and Aspinall. He followed that up with a loss to another top contender in Alexander Volkov, but bounced back with a decision over the since-released Jair Rozenstruik in February.
Meanwhile, Cortes-Acosta has done nothing but win of late. He's rattled off five consecutive victories, though only the most recent win against Serghei Spivac was against a ranked opponent. He logged an impressive 110 significant strikes in that fight and recovered quickly from both of Spivac's successful takedowns.
The striking numbers here lie with Cortes-Acosta, who has accumulated 5.98 significant strikes per minute over a large enough sample size to be deemed meaningful. He absorbs just 3.43 significant strikes per minute. Pavlovich's marks sit at 4.54 and 3.81, respectively, though his resume has been established through far tougher competition.
In a fight expected to be contested on the feet, a six-inch reach edge for Pavlovich cannot be ignored. Cortes-Acosta is an inch taller, however, and typically pushes the edge of the heavyweight limit. Both fighters are 33 years old.
To me, this heavyweight fight is closer to a toss-up than the odds lead you to believe. I don't place much value on Pavolivich's win over Rozenstruik, so give me the fighter with more momentum who has never been knocked out in his 15-fight career. You probably want a piece either way, but on a card filled with lopsided fights, the pick is Cortes-Acosta due to the lineup flexibility created.
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Cortes-Acosta
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Middleweight
Michel Pereira (31-13) vs. Kyle Daukaus (15-4)
DraftKings Salaries: Pereira ($9,200), Daukaus ($7,000)
Betting Odds: Pereira (-265), Daukaus (+215)
I wanted to feature this prelim fight as a write-up, as I believe Pereira has a just as good, if not better chance to finish as some of the higher-priced, home-country favorites. Utilizing the Brazilian as a pivot move could save some cash and deliver much-needed lineup flexibility. Let me explain why.
Pereira is coming off back-to-back losses. One was a lopsided loss to Anthony Hernandez in the main event, but we all now know Hernandez is on the verge of a title shot. An April loss via decision to Abus Magomedov was less excusable -- despite relatively even striking numbers, Pereira stayed in first gear all night, to the point one had to wonder if an injury was in play.
We're banking that Pereira is now healthy and ready to bounce back, and a fight against Daukaus seems like the prime bounce-back opportunity.
Daukaus steps in on relatively short notice as a replacement for Marco Tulio, who fell out of this fight due to injury. Daukaus is a fringe-UFC fighter at best, as his last four bouts -- all wins -- came under the banner of Cage Fury Fighting Championship. When we last saw him in the UFC, he was getting finished by Eryk Anders via strikes. Getting finished by Anders, even in 2022, is not a great sign.
Sure, Daukaus will have slight height and reach advantages, and has likely made some improvements since we last saw him in the UFC. It still won't be nearly enough to match up against an explosive striker like Pereira, who had racked up three consecutive first-round finishes and four consecutive post-fight bonuses prior to the recent, brief losing streak.
I'm willing to set aside those recent results and bet Pereira gets back to his winning ways against an overmatched opponent. Taking the short-notice fight gives Daukaus another shot at the UFC, so he probably didn't have much of a choice, but I don't expect it to go well for him.
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Pereira
Other Bouts
Flyweight
Su Mudaerji (17-7) vs. Kevin Borjas (10-3)
DraftKings Salaries: Mudaerji ($8,500), Borjas ($7,700)
Bettings Odds: Mudaerji (-155), Borjas (+130)
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Mudaerji
Welterweight
Taiyilake Nueraji (11-1) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (10-5)
DraftKings Salaries: Nueraji ($9,300), Crosbie ($6,900)
Bettings Odds: Nueraji (-430), Crosbie (+300)
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Nueraji
Lightweight
Hayisaer Maheshate (10-4) vs. Gauge Young (9-3)
DraftKings Salaries: Maheshate ($8,000), Young ($8,200)
Bettings Odds: Maheshate (+110), Young (-130)
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Maheshate
Flyweight
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Charles Johnson (17-7)
DraftKings Salaries: Kavanagh ($8,800), Johnson ($7,400)
Bettings Odds: Kavanagh (-205), Johnson (+170)
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Kavanagh
Lightweight
Rong Zhu (26-6) vs. Austin Hubbard (16-9)
DraftKings Salaries: Zhu ($9,100), Hubbard ($7,100)
Bettings Odds: Zhu (-270), Hubbard (+220)
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Zhu
Featherweight
Yi Zha (25-5) vs. Westin Wilson (17-9)
DraftKings Salaries: Zha ($9,900), Wilson ($6,300)
Bettings Odds: Zha (-1200), Wilson (+750)
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Zha
Bantamweight
Long Xiao (27-9) vs. Su Young You (15-3)
DraftKings Salaries: Xiao ($7,900), You ($8,300)
Bettings Odds: Xiao (+114), You (-135)
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: You
Light Heavyweight
Diyar Nurgozhay (10-1) vs. Uran Satybaldiev (9-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Nurgozhay ($7,500), Satybaldiev ($8,700)
Bettings Odds: Nurgozhay (+154), Satybaldiev (-185)
UFC SHANGHAI PICK: Satybaldiev
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
