This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Kansas City card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Joselyne Edwards (12-4-0) v. Lucie Pudilova (14-7-0)
Joselyne Edwards - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Lucie Pudilova - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to take place on the feet for most, if not all, of its duration. Pudilova is the more talented of the two, but Edwards' striking continues to improve, and she has more volume. Either lady could attempt a takedown, but I do not see it staying on the mat for long if it gets there. So, seeing this end with a lower-scoring split decision would not shock me.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Edwards
Aaron Phillips (12-4-0) v. Gaston Bolanos (6-3-0)
Aaron Phillips - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Gaston Bolanos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Bolanos is making his debut and looks to get a set-up fight against Phillips, who has not fought since July 2020. Bolanos has some serious power, and a first or second-round knockout is likely.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Bolanos
Bruna Brasil (8-2-1) v. Denise Gomes (6-2-0)
Bruna Brasil - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
Denise Gomes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Brasil is making her debut after a successful fight on the Contender Series and will have a significant edge on the mat in this one. Gomes, who lost her UFC debut, draws a tough second fight and will have trouble finding success against the talented Brasil. However, I expect Brasil to use her size and get this down early and potentially find an early finish.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Brasil
Lando Vannata (12-6-2) v. Daniel Zellhuber (12-1-0)
Lando Vannata - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Daniel Zellhuber - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be another close fight that could end with a split decision if not ended early. Vannata should have a slight edge on the mat, while Zellhuber holds a significant edge on the feet, where I see most of the fight playing out. Without an early finish, a lower score should be expected.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Zellhuber
Piera Rodriguez (9-0-0) v. Gillian Robertson 11-7-0)
Piera Rodriguez - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Gillian Robertson - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Yet another fight that should be close. I expect Rodriguez to have the advantage everywhere but grappling. She should dominate on the feet and could be the one chasing takedowns to gain control on the mat. However, Robertson is an elite grappler and could find a submission at any point during the fight.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Rodriguez
Ed Herman (24-15-0) v. Zak Cummings (24-7-0)
Ed Herman - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 26 wins
Zak Cummings - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: These guys are nearing the end of their rope, and this fight is expected to be a banger. Cummings has not fought since August 2020, while Herman has not since August 2021. With so many questions due to their ages and long layoffs, this fight could go either way. Cummings is the more talented of the two but will need an early finish to hit value as the slates highest-priced fighter.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Cummings
Brandon Royval (14-6-0) v. Matheus Nicolau (19-2-1)
Brandon Royval - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
Matheus Nicolau - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This has the potential to be Fight of the Night. Both guys are brawlers and love to grapple. I give Nicolau an edge everywhere and expect him to win a close fight where both fighters have their chances.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Nicolau
TJ Brown (17-9-0) v. Bill Algeo (16-7-0)
TJ Brown - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 17 wins
Bill Algeo - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a clash of styles, with each fighter having a solid advantage. Algeo should have the edge on the feet, while Brown holds an advantage on the mat. Algeo gets taken down often but has shown a decent ability to get back up. However, I like the physical strength of Brown and think he finds the success he needs to score the upset.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Brown
Clay Guida (38-22-0) v. Rafa Garcia (15-3-0)
Clay Guida - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 38 wins
Rafa Garcia - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Guida seems ageless and continues to show he can fight at this level, but he likely finds it challenging to find success against Garcia. Garcia can do everything Guida does, but better, and I expect him to dominate this fight, potentially crushing value even at his tag,
UFC Kansas City Pick: Garcia
Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0) v. Chris Gutierrez (19-3-2)
Pedro Munhoz - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
Chris Gutierrez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Munhoz has lost four of his last six and also has a no-contest in there, although he has faced the best of the best. Gutierrez has been on a roll, winning seven of his last eight with no losses. He should have the edge everywhere and only needs to avoid the power from Munhoz. I expect him to put on a striking clinic and potentially end this early.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Gutierrez
Ion Cutelaba (16-9-1) v. Tanner Boser (20-9-1)
Ion Cutelaba - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Tanner Boser - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Boser is moving down to light heavyweight for this fight. I expect his speed to pick up, but I worry about everything else, making him a big question mark to me. On the other hand, Cutelaba has significant power and loves chaining takedowns against guys who poorly defend them. So, I expect him to be the one putting on relentless pressure and not letting Boser find any rhythm at all.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Cutelaba
Dustin Jacoby (18-6-1) v. Azamat Murzakanov (12-0-0)
Dustin Jacoby - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Azamat Murzakanov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Murzakanov brings an undefeated streak of 12-0 and is a solid overall fighter. However, he will likely struggle with the size of Jacoby. I expect Jacoby to strike from range using his six-inch reach advantage and torch Murzakanov with his technical striking. I do not see this fight hitting the mat much, if at all. Murzakanov must find his way into the pocket and land something flush to stand a chance in this one.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Jacoby
Edson Barboza (22-11-0) v. Billy Quarantillo (17-4-0)
Edson Barboza - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 22 wins
Billy Quarantillo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an absolute banger, as all of Quarantillo's fights are. Barboza has some of the nastiest kicks in the UFC and will likely throw them often to slow Quarantillo down. However, Quarantillo will have more volume and will dominate the ground game if he takes it there. I would also give him the edge in cardio. As always, Billy Q is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Quarantillo
Max Holloway (23-7-0) v. Arnold Allen (19-1-0)
Max Holloway - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 12 finishes in 23 wins
Arnold Allen - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an incredible back-and-forth striking match. Both guys are keen on keeping it on the feet and striking, so this will likely be a 25-minute striking affair. Allen will have the power advantage, but Holloway has an iron chin. Holloway has the edge everywhere but power and will have a massive cardio advantage. I expect the first few rounds to be close, with Max soaring passed Allen later in the fight.
UFC Kansas City Pick: Holloway
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Kansas City DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
