This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC San Antonio card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Tamires Vidal (7-1-0) v. Hailey Cowan (7-2-0)
Tamires Vidal - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
Hailey Cowan - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect most of the fight to take place on the feet, with Vidal controlling range and pressure. Cowan could find some success if she can get the fight to the mat and control on top, but Vidal is a solid wrestler herself. Vidal is also a step up in competition from what Cowan has fought, and she should score well in a win.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Vidal
Victor Altamirano (11-2-0) v. Vinicius Salvador (14-4-0)
Victor Altamirano - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
Vinicius Salvador - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should be a fun striker vs. grappler match. Salvador will finally make his debut and have a significant edge on the feet. Altamirano is a fast starter and will hold an advantage on the mat, but he may find it difficult to get it there. I expect Salvador to push a punishing pace and eventually knock Altamirano out early.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Salvador
Manuel Torres (13-2-0) v. Trey Ogden (16-5-0)
Manuel Torres - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Trey Ogden - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Ogden offers very little on the feet but is a considerable submission threat when on the mat. However, Torres is an up-and-coming talent who is solid everywhere. He should be better everywhere the fight goes and only needs to avoid putting himself in a difficult position to win this fight. I expect him to come out fast and finish this within the first two rounds. Torres is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Torres
C.J. Vergara (10-4-1) v. Daniel Lacerda (11-4-0)
C.J. Vergara - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
Daniel Lacerda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Lacerda (aka da Silva) is on his last chance in the UFC after suffering three consecutive losses, all by finish. He is live in the first round and a dangerous finisher, but he has an awful fight IQ and continually puts himself in bad positions. I expect Vergara to avoid getting finished and eventually capitalize on a mistake to put da Silva away. Due to the volatility of this fight, both guys are in play for GPP contests.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Vergara
Trevin Giles (15-4-0) v. Preston Parsons (10-3-0)
Trevin Giles - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Preston Parsons - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Parsons is an impressive young fighter, but I feel this is a step up in competition he is not ready for. He will have an advantage in grappling, but that should be it. Giles has faced far better competition and should be the better overall fighter in this one. He will have a considerable edge on the feet, and his wrestling should match Parsons. I expect this to be a slow-paced fight with both fighters looking to avoid trouble, and this ending with a decision going Giles's way.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Giles
Steven Peterson (19-10-0) v. Lucas Alexander (7-3-0)
Steven Peterson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
Lucas Alexander - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Peterson will have a significant edge on the mat and is going against a guy who has lost three times, all via submission. He also throws a solid amount of volume and would be my pick in a decision. Alexander has scary power but is susceptible to takedowns and must keep this fight standing at all times. His best chance is to knock Peterson out, but I do not see it happening. I like Peterson to finish this early on the mat.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Peterson
Daniel Pineda (27-14-0) v. Tucker Lutz (12-2-0)
Daniel Pineda - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 27 wins
Tucker Lutz - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Pineda is now 37 and has not fought in a year and a half. He is still dangerous, as all of his wins have come by of a finish, but he has not looked great in his last handful of fights, and it is difficult to trust him. On the other hand, Lutz is the young gun looking to climb his way up. He has a solid overall game and is incredibly durable, but he has not fought in over a year. I do not want to put much stock in this fight as neither guy has fought recently, but Lutz is my pick to win.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Lutz
Chidi Njokuani (22-8-0) v. Albert Duraev (15-4-0)
Chidi Njokuani - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 22 wins
Albert Duraev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of my favorite fights on the card. If Njokuani wins, it is likely by a knockout early in the fight. If Duraev wins, it will be with suffocating wrestling and chained takedowns. He has been known to stand flat-footed and has been knocked out in all of his losses, but I think he avoids the power and controls the fight in this one. Duraev is my favorite dog on the card.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Duraev
Alex Perez (13-6-0) v. Manel Kape (18-6-0)
Alex Perez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 24 wins
Manel Kape - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Perez is set to make his 10th UFC appearance and currently sits at 6-3, with six of those fights ending in the first round. He has recently been a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter, and I do not see that changing here. Meanwhile, Kape has been the fighter we thought we were getting when entering the UFC over his last three fights. He should have the edge everywhere in this fight, and as long as he avoids putting himself in a bad position, he should win this fight early.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Kape
Andrea Lee (13-6-0) v. Maycee Barber (11-2-0)
Andrea Lee - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Maycee Barber - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Both ladies have similar skill sets, but Barber should be better everywhere. I expect a tightly-contested, back-and-forth battle with Barber edging Lee out on the cards, but I do not see a high score coming out of this fight.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Barber
Nate Landwehr (16-4-0) v. Austin Lingo (9-1-0)
Nate Landwehr - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
Austin Lingo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Lingo is a striker and will want to keep this fight on the feet. Landwehr has solid striking as well, but he also has excellent wrestling and grappling in his back pocket if he takes this to the mat. He is also the fighter more likely to end the fight early. I do not trust either fighter or the significant price gap, but I will side with the favorite.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Landwehr
Holly Holm (14-6-0) v. Yana Santos (14-6-0)
Holly Holm - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Yana Santos - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: You know exactly what you are getting with Holm when she fights; constant kicks while circling the ring and a multitude of clinches against the cage. She does not throw a ton of volume, nor does she have a ton of power. Santos, formerly Kunitskaya, will be the fighter pressuring but could have issues tracking Holm down while she circles. If she is going to win this fight, she needs to force Holm into a situation where she needs to strike or take her down and control her on the mat. Holm will not pay off her price in a decision win, but Santos would likely crush value. It will be an unpopular pick, but I will roll with Santos. I expect her team to have a game plan to stop Holm from circling and force her to actually fight.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Santos
Marlon Vera (22-7-1) v. Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0)
Marlon Vera - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 20 wins
Cory Sandhagen - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: The Fight of the Night is bound to come from this fight. Both guys are well-rounded and can fight anywhere. Vera tends to start slow and finish things strong in the latter rounds. He has the power and crazy striking to end this fight at any time, but he tends to start fights slowly, which will likely be his downfall. Sandhagen is a complete fighter with some of the best counters and quick hands in the fight game. I expect him to pile volume up early and knock Vera out or win on the judge's scorecards.
UFC San Antonio Pick: Sandhagen
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC San Antonio DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
