This article is part of our FanDuel MMA series.
We are back at it with another UFC card! UFC Vegas 21 features 13 bouts, which makes for plenty of opportunities to roster fighters in our FanDuel lineups!
If I do not mention a fighter in this article, it does not mean I am not considering them for a specific category. Still, I am putting fighters in these categories out of respect for prioritization.
Let's get into it!
FanDuel Scoring System:
Moves Scoring (MVP 1.5X)
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.9 PTS
Takedown (TD): +9 PTS
Takedown Defense (TDEF): +4.5 PTS
Submission Attempt (SA): +7.5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +18 PTS
Moves Scoring (Standard)
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.6 PTS
Takedown (TD): +6 PTS
Takedown Defense (TDEF): 3
Submission Attempt (SA): 5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +12 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses (MVP 1.5X)
1st Round Win (1stW): +150 PTS
2nd Round Win (2ndW): +112.5 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rdW): +75 PTS
4th Round Win (4thW): +52.5 PTS
5th Round Win (5thW): +37.5 PTS
Decision Win (DecW): +30 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses (Standard)
1st Round Win (1stW): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2ndW): +75 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rdW): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4thW): +35 PTS
5th Round Win (5thW): +25 PTS
Decision Win (DecW): +20 PTS
MVP Top Play
Rani Yahya ($20)
Rani Yahya is one of the biggest betting favorites on the entire card and holds one of the most decisive wins inside the distance lines. Yahya is an excellent submission grappler (i.e., 2nd Degree BJJ Black Belt, ADCC medalist) taking on Ray Rodriguez. Rodriguez seems to struggle the most in fights where he is not the better grappler (i.e., submitted quickly in UFC debut, taken down easily several times on DWTNCS, and was back-mounted before getting finished with ground & pound), which is what we have here. Yahya has shown the ability to land single-leg takedowns, excellent scrambling and slickness at taking the opposition's back. I am interested in rostering Yahya with the thought process that he has the ability to take this fight to the ground, dominate and potentially get a finish.
Cash Game Underdogs
Cortney Casey ($13)
The bout between Cortney Casey and JJ Aldrich is near 50/50, in my opinion. Aldrich is more technical and defensively sound, which is why I slightly favor her. Still, Casey's striking volume is higher (i.e., landed 111 significant strikes against Angela Hill, 103 against Jessica Aguilar) and throws with more power. Aldrich tends to fight very competitively with the opposition, and I think this fight is no different. Per the betting odds, Aldrich is very unlikely to finish this fight, which implies a strong chance to hit the judges' scorecards. Casey is one of the more likely underdogs to pull off the upset on the card from my viewpoint, which is why I am interested in rostering her in cash games.
Gavin Tucker ($13)
I view Gavin Tucker as the superior technical fighter in his matchup against Dan Ige with a cardio advantage. Tucker is an excellent striker (i.e., southpaw mainly with occasional stance switch, utilizes feints, good footwork, boxing is fast & sharp, nice combinations, and good variety with kicks) and grappler (i.e., BJJ Black Belt, proficient scrambling, submission threat from the top position, will advance position in the top position). If Tucker is not ready for this level of an opponent, or if Ige clips him with a big punch and hurts him (i.e., Tucker was knocked down by Glenn and Jaynes), he may lose. Still, he's one of the underdogs I think has a good chance of winning combined with a strong potential to go to a decision. I am willing to target Tucker as an underdog who can score well in a decision win due to the high pace he fights at (i.e., landed 106 significant strikes and seven takedowns in his most recent fight).
GPP Underdogs
Matheus Nicolau ($14)
I still have the same concerns for Matheus Nicolau's opponent Manel Kape as I had in his UFC debut, which are his defensive grappling once on his back. Manel Kape has been taken down and controlled in several of his RIZIN fights (i.e., against Asakura in Round 2 of the first fight, Horiguchi in Rounds 1 & 3, Sasaki in all three rounds). Kape relies a lot on his athleticism to work his way back up after getting taken down, but as he fatigues or gets put flat on his back, he struggles to work back up. As a result, Kape was mounted and submitted by Horiguchi, controlled for the majority of Round 2 against Asakura (i.e., the first fight) and nearly finished by Sasaki in Rounds 2 & 3 (i.e., was in the mounted crucifix and threatened with a couple of severe RNC attempts).
Nicolau is a BJJ Black Belt (i.e., submission threat from the top position, looks to pass guard when in the top position), so I like Nicolau's chances to earn a potential finish he gets in top position. I also view Nicolau as the better technical striker (i.e., a counter striker on the outside, moves in & out of range very well) who can have success landing his hard low kicks (i.e., Kape stands heavy on his lead leg at times).
It's a decent style matchup for Nicolau to get this fight to the ground and impose his BJJ, which makes me intrigued to roster him in my lineups.
Ryan Spann ($15)
The fight between Ryan Spann and Misha Cirkunov has the highest likelihood of finishing per the current betting odds (i.e., in 14 combined UFC fights, only two have gone to decision). I view the fight as Cirkunov is the better fighter everywhere the fight takes place. However, IF Spann wins this fight, I think there's a strong chance it's via finish (i.e., Cirkunov has been finished in all of his pro MMA losses and was nearly finished by Jim Crute). Spann has shown some power in his hands and threatening submission grappling, so I think he's more than capable of finishing this fight, which is why I am willing to target him on FanDuel.
GPP Pivot Favorites
Misha Cirkunov ($17)
Misha Cirkunov is the better striker both offensively (i.e., southpaw kickboxer who utilizes push kick, low kick, overhand right, jab, head kick and body kick) and defensively in the matchup (i.e., better footwork and head movement) against Ryan Spann. I also view Cirkunov as the better grappler (i.e., BJJ Black Belt, ADCC Medalist, excellent guard passer in the top position). Cirkunov can exploit Spann's stationary movement and susceptible striking defense to get a TKO/KO in the standup. Also, Cirkunov can get this fight to the ground (i.e., double-leg and single-leg takedown ability, body lock + trip takedown ability, Judo background) and impose his superior grappling (i.e., Devin Clark and Luis Henrique took down Spann). I am willing to roster Cirkunov this weekend, knowing he has the potential to finish this fight standing or on the ground.
Matthew Semelsberger ($16)
Matthew Semelsberger is a former NCAA Divison I football player who transitioned to MMA. Semelsberger will be taking on Jason Witt, who excels as a grappler (i.e., BJJ Brown Belt, sinks in the hooks if presented the back, power double leg takedown ability, body lock + single-leg trip takedown ability). Semelsberger seems like a solid enough of a grappler to give Witt's takedowns resistance (i.e., utilizes the body triangle to establish back control, a good entry on double leg takedown in open space). Therefore, Semelsberger can keep the fight standing (i.e., 5-inch reach advantage, sound combinations, variety and has power) where he can get the finish (i.e., Witt has been hurt and finished in several of his previous fights).
Manel Kape ($18)
Manel Kape is very athletic, fast, and powerful, but he also manages distance well. He will likely try to land the big shot on the feet to hurt Nicolau and win the standup exchanges, which is possible (i.e., Nicolau was knocked down from a blocked kick and knocked out by Dustin Ortiz). I view this fight similarity to Cirkunov vs. Spann in that Nicolau (Cirkunov) better everywhere the fight takes place, but IF Kape wins, there's a solid chance it's via finish. Kape has one of the better wins inside the distance lines on the slate, and for that reason, I am willing to target him at potentially lower ownership depending on how the market reacts to his UFC debut.
Gloria de Paula ($19)
I bet Gloria de Paula in this matchup (if you want to see the free full betting breakdown, you can DM me on Twitter @AJ_Schullo) because I think it's a good stylistic matchup for her combined with her finishing upside. De Paula is the better striker relative to her opponent Jinh Yu Frey in my eyes (i.e., is more varied, has more power, and faster hands with a 2.5-inch reach advantage) and superior in the clinch (i.e., good head positioning & wrist control and hard knees & elbows while utilizing the Muay Thai clinch).
I also view de Paula as the superior grappler (i.e., controls posture well from the bottom position, has a threatening guard, and is a submission threat from the front headlock position). To me, it's a matter of de Paula being ready for the UFC level, and from my viewpoint, she is (i.e., trains with Charles Oliveira and Mayra Bueno Silva).
I don't think da Paula will be a popular FanDuel target because the betting odds suggest she does not have a high likelihood of finishing this fight. Still, my perspective means she has a solid chance of finishing this fight on the ground or in the standup, which makes me interested in rostering her.
GPP Fades/Fighters To Be Light On
Angela Hill ($23)
Though I think she wins against Ashley Yoder again (i.e., Hill won the unanimous decision in July 2017), I will not have any exposure to her in my FanDuel lineups this weekend. Hill does not carry a vital win inside the distance prop, is unlikely to grapple (i.e., that is Yoder's path to victory), and Yoder has never been finished in 14 professional MMA bouts. Considering these circumstances, I am not interested in rostering Hill in my lineups.
JJ Aldrich ($16)
I am not interested in rostering JJ Aldrich this weekend because her win inside the distance line is the least intriguing among all the favorites. Aldrich's striking output is low and does not usually look to grapple (even if she does, Casey is a BJJ Brown Belt whose guard is difficult to pass). With other more intriguing options on this card, I will not be rostering Aldrich for Saturday.
