This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 284's main attraction will have all eyes (including ours) fixed on the screen, as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the company is determined. Meanwhile, there are 12 other fights we can look at to potentially make a profit. We'll cover four plus-money plays this month, including a debutante in for a wild ride, and a heavyweight who never stops working. All our plays this month come from William Hill and are accurate as to the posting date of this article.
Weight class: Lightweight
Islam Makhachev (23-1-10) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (25-1-0)
Makhachev and Volkanovski deserve their positions as the top pound-for-pound fighters in the company, and while it is tempting to take a shot on "The Great" for the price, there are dynamics at play that may make this fight every bit as one-sided as the line suggests. The question we then have to ask ourselves is how we best capitalize on the chalk.
Anyone within earshot held their breath as Volkanovski narrowly escaped two incredibly tight submissions in his fight against Brian Ortega in 2021, and while his grit was cemented that night, the fact that he was able to come so close to being submitted on two separate occasions should raise red flags. The next thing to note would be the lack of time the Australian spends on the mat after being taken down. Though he was brought to the mat multiple times by both Ortega and Chad Mendes, he spend less than a minute on his back in those fights. This could initially be seen as a positive, but my worry is that Volkanovski will look to scramble away too quickly, allowing Islam to move to a dominant position and apply a submission.
Volkanovski is one of the most formidable champions we have seen in some time, but if he's banking on his athleticism as the smaller man to save him in scrambles, I think he is in for a surprise. It seems more likely that Makhachev, who moves extremely well for a big lightweight, will be a step ahead due to his strength and grappling acumen.
UFC 284 BET: Islam Makhachev wins via submission (+145)
Weight class: Featherweight
Jack Jenkins (10-2-0) vs. Don Shainis (12-4-0)
Some may have thought Shainis marching himself into a Thai clinch before shooting an incredibly sloppy takedown and being submitted in his UFC debut against Sodiq Yusuff was due to a case of Octagon jitters. The reality is that his fight with Brice Picaud at Cage Titans FC followed the exact same script, with the only difference being that his opponent was unable to capitalize. Shainis is hardly the first UFC fighter to look like a bull in a china shop, but I doubt someone this chaotic gets the win over Jenkins.
The most important thing to note here is that Jenkins is incredibly strong for the weight class. This will be crucial in defending those takedown attempts mentioned above. Beyond that, "Phar" is excellent at keeping range, and should be able to use leg kicks to make his opponent's base unsteady. Shainis throws hard but does so without regard for his own defense, and Jenkins has never been knocked out in 12 professional fights.
Under normal circumstances, Jenkins would be happy to work his own wrestling attack. Here, the focus will likely be staying on his feet and making Shanis pay for all of the openings he leaves. To his credit, "Shameless" only has one KO/TKO loss on his record, but those will almost certainly mount as he steps up to better competition.
UFC 284 BET: Jack Jenkins wins via KO/TKO or DQ (+140)
Weight class: Heavyweight
Justin Tafa (5-3-0) vs. Parker Porter (13-7-0)
It seems strange to me that such a difference in experience would produce such a closely-lined fight, particularly since Tafa has lost more bouts than he has won in the UFC. While his style may not be pretty, Porter's only losses in the company have come against an extremely fast and powerful Chris Daukaus and one of the most exciting prospects we've seen enter the heavier weight classes in Jailton Almeida.
Tafa is neither of those things. While he may be a capable kickboxer at heavyweight, he is too limited in his approach and will shut down his aggression in response to getting clipped by an opponent. Porter will poor on the pressure from the opening bell and it's tough to see an empty volume-striker like Jared Vanderaa win such a comfortable decision against the "Bad Man" and not conclude that Porter can do the same, particularly when we factor in his wrestling attack.
Most of his losses have come via stoppage, but Porter has yet to notch a finish in three UFC wins, and Tafa has shown he is tough enough to take punishment and hang around. We can take the opportunity and turn a small dog into a potentially large profit with his most likely path to victory.
UFC 284 BET: Parker Porter wins via Decision or Technical Decision (+340)
Weight class: Light heavyweight
Tyson Pedro (9-3-0) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (13-5-0)
At first glance, Bukauskas may not look like someone who has lost three of his last four fights by KO/TKO. He's extremely athletic and agile around the cage, has decent power, and possesses a BJJ black belt. The main issue here is that he resides in a weight class where being fast and powerful is a prerequisite, and without another reliable gear to go to, it looks as though the Lithuanian fighter will continue to struggle.
That's not to say that Pedro's walk through the division has been a bed of roses, but the Australian fighter really seemed determined after injuries kept him out of the Octagon for almost three years, as he has notched first-round KO/TKOs in each of his last two fights. The leg kicks he used to stop Ike Villanueva should be key here, as Bukauskas stands incredibly heavy on his front foot, and is coming off of a gruesome-looking knee injury that ended his last bout against Khalil Rountree. It's also worth noting that he enters this contest with a paltry 37 percent striking accuracy rate, so Pedro won't necessarily need to be worried about everything coming back in his direction.
Pedro can be seen as untested after two quick finishes since his return, but Bukauskas has seemingly become more hittable as his UFC career has gone on and he will be taking this fight on short notice in what will be his second attempt to make a run in the promotion.
UFC 284 BET: Tyson Pedro wins via KO/TKO or DQ (+160)
UFC 284 Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 284 card:
- Islam Makhachev wins via submission (+145)
- Jack Jenkins wins via KO/TKO or DQ (+140)
- Parker Porter wins via Decision or Technical Decision (+340)
- Tyson Pedro wins via KO/TKO or DQ (+160)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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