This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 306 (Noche UFC) Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 306 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Raul Rosas Jr. (9-1-0) v. Aoriqileng (25-11-0)
Raul Rosas Jr. - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Aori Qileng - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Rosas is nearly a lock for all contests in this matchup. Aoriqileng is a solid fighter, but nowhere near the level of Rosas. I expect several takedowns and an eventual submission within the first two rounds.
UFC 306 Pick: Rosas Jr.
Edgar Chairez (11-5-0) v. Joshua Van (10-2-0)
Edgar Chairez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
Joshua Van - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Van will have a massive edge on the feet and should have no issue winning this fight if it stays upright. However, Chairez is an elite grappler, and getting this to the mat could spell trouble for Van. That said, Van has elite takedown defense, so it is more likely Van keeps this upright and dominates volume.
UFC 306 Pick: Van
Yazmin Jauregui (11-1-0) v. Ketlen Souza (14-4-0)
Yazmin Jauregui - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Ketlen Souza - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a good fight to gauge where each fighter is at. They are both coming in with wins but against low-level competition. It will primarily be a striking match, where Jauregui should have more power and volume. Without an early finish, this fight is likely close and lower-scoring for DFS purposes.
UFC 306 Pick: Jauregui
Manuel Torres (15-2-0) v. Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5-0)
Manuel Torres - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
Ignacio Bahamondes - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a fun fight. Both fighters offer high-volume striking and power. If we do not see an early knockout, I expect Torres to work this to the mat, where he could throw heavy ground and pound or find an early submission. Bahamondes will have his opportunities throughout the fight, but I expect Torres to be too much. Torres makes an excellent play for DFS purposes.
UFC 306 Pick: Torres
Irene Aldana (15-7-0) v. Norma Dumont (11-2-0)
Irene Aldana - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Norma Dumont - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: It is not often you get out struck by 70 strikes and still win, but Aldana accomplished that in her last fight. Dumont is riding a four-game winning streak backed by her wrestling. She will need more of that if she is going to win this fight, as she will be outpointed on the feet by Aldana. I expect Dumont to find some success with takedowns and score the upset, making her a solid dog play for GPP contests.
UFC 306 Pick: Dumont
Ronaldo Rodriguez (16-2-0) v. Ode Osbourne (12-7-0)
Ronaldo Rodriguez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
Ode Osbourne - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: It feels like we have seen the best of Osbourne, and he might be quickly on his way out with another loss or two. Rodriguez should be better everywhere, particularly on the mat. He will likely be one of the more popular plays on the slate and should be safe to use in all contests.
UFC 306 Pick: Rodriguez
Daniel Zellhuber (15-1-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (13-1-0)
Daniel Zellhuber - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
Esteban Ribovics - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a good fight to target for GPP contests. If Ribovics can work inside the pocket, he has a solid chance to record another knockout win. The more likely scenario is that Zellhuber keeps the fight at range and outpoints Ribovics for 15 minutes.
UFC 306 Pick: Zellhuber
Brian Ortega (16-3-0) v. Diego Lopes (25-6-0)
Brian Ortega - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Diego Lopes - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Ortega snuck out an upset submission win in his last fight and showed a lot of heart after being down early. However, I do not think he will have the same success in this fight. Lopes continues to show how phenomenal of a fighter he is, recording another first-round finish in April and coming up massive with a short-notice matchup at a different weight last time out. We still have yet to see his BJJ, and we will likely finally get to see it here. Lopes will have a considerable edge on the feet, and I will not be surprised to see him knock Ortega out.
UFC 306 Pick: Lopes
Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) v. Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1)
Alexa Grasso - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 16 wins
Valentina Shevchenko - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be their trilogy fight and their third consecutive matchup. Grasso has seemingly picked up Shevchenko's game plan better than any other fighter and will once again pose a significant threat to her. She has shown a phenomenal ability to take advantage of mistakes, and it will not be surprising to see her keep the belt. However, I expect Shevchenko to even the record in this fight. She has considerably more power and still flashes a better overall game. This is a stackable fight in cash contests and could make the optimal again if it's another close fight.
UFC 306 Pick: Shevchenko
Sean O'Malley (18-1-0) v. Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0)
Sean O'Malley - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Merab Dvalishvili - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Whoever wins this fight likely does it dominantly. If O'Malley wins, it will be from a devastating display of striking, and If Dvalishvili wins, it will be from chained takedowns and control time. Cardio will not be an issue for either fighter, and we could see a massive score for DFS come from this fight.
UFC 306 Pick: Dvalishvili
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
