This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is in Louisville, Kentucky on Saturday, June 8 for UFC Louisville. In the main event, top-seven-ranked middleweights collide, as Jared Cannonier takes on Nassourdine Imavov.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Daniel Marcos (15-0, 1 NC) vs. John Castaneda (21-6)
On the prelims, an intriguing bantamweight bout goes down between Daniel Marcos and John Castaneda. While the oddsmakers have it as a pick'em, this is a fight in which I like Marcos to get the win.
Marcos is coming off a No-Contest due to an accidental low blow in a fight he was dominating, as his striking is great. Castaneda, meanwhile, has slowed down in fights. He is there to be hit, as he absorbs 4.99 significant strikes per minute, leading to a negative striking differential. Marcos, meanwhile, lands 5.75 significant strikes per minute.
Marcos has also shown off some solid cardio, so I expect him to piece up Castaneda and get a decision or possibly get a late finish once Castaneda slows down, as Daniel Santos did to him.
UFC Louisville Best Bet: Daniel Marcos (-118)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Jared Cannonier (17-6) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (13-4, 1 NC)
I don't understand the odds on this fight and why Jared Cannonier was the underdog. Bettors seem to be agreeing, as the line is dropping and Cannonier could even close the favorite come Saturday.
Although Cannonier is 40 and hasn't fought in a year, he is coming off an absolute beatdown of Marvin Vettori in a fight in which he landed 257 strikes over five rounds. Cannonier has great cardio and goes five hard rounds, while the same can not be said for Nassourdine Imavov.
Imavov slowed down against Sean Strickland, but that's understandable given what the former champion does to most opponents. However, Imavov also showed signs of slowing down against Phil Hawes in a three-round fight and against Roman Dolidze in his last fight. If Imavov can't KO Cannonier early, and Cannonier has shown off a great chin at middleweight, I don't like this matchup for him.
Cannonier should be able to push the pace against Imavov and be the more active striker to win a decision.
UFC Louisville Best Bet: Jared Cannonier (+102)
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) vs. Dominick Reyes (12-4)
In the co-main event of UFC Louisville, a pivotal light heavyweight bout goes down between Dustin Jacoby and Dominick Reyes.
Reyes is fighting for the first time since November of 2022 when he was knocked out by Ryan Spann in the first round. Reyes has been knocked out in three straight fights, as his chin is a major concern, while Jacoby is a Glory kickboxer and has shown off some power.
However, instead of taking Jacoby by knockout, I'll play it a bit safe and do the under 2.5 rounds at -160, just in case Reyes is back to his old self and catches Jacoby.
Both men have KO power, and Jacoby has been dropped in two of his last three fights, so I'll take violence in this one and expect someone to get knocked out in the first round.
UFC Louisville Best Bet: Jacoby-Reyes under 2.5 rounds (-160)
Weight Classes: Strawweight & Bantamweight
Rayanne Amanda (14-7) vs. Puja Tomar (8-4)
Raul Rosas Jr. (8-1) vs. Ricky Turcios (12-3)
For my parlay at UFC Louisville, I'm backing Rayanne Amanda and Raul Rosas Jr. to get their hands raised.
Amanda is opening up the card against Tomar in the first fight of the night, and this is a good spot to take Amanda here. Tomar isn't UFC caliber, as she event went 1-3 in ONE Championship. Simply put, she struggles against grapplers, and Amanda is just that. Amanda should be able to get Tomar down to the ground early and lock in a submission.
In the other leg, I'm backing Rosas Jr. against Turcios, as this fight was supposed to happen back in February at UFC Mexico City but never materialized. This is a good matchup for Rosas Jr. who should be able to control Turcios on the ground, as the American has a 45 percent takedown defense. Rosas Jr. is the much better grappler and should get a decision win by controlling Turcios for the fight.
UFC Louisville Best Bet: Rayanne Amanda & Raul Rosas Jr. (-110)
UFC Louisville Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Louisville best bets:
- Daniel Marcos (-112)
- Jared Cannonier (+102)
- Dustin Jacoby-Dominick Reyes under 2.5 rounds (-160)
- Rayanne Amanda & Raul Rosas Jr. parlay (-110)
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