Fresh faces are strewn throughout the 12-fight card in Paris, France, offering real opportunity for those who are resourceful enough to take a closer look at the competition. We'll cover every bout across four platforms, including a knockout artist being shown little respect, and a wrestler looking to ply her trade. Our betting lines were taken from William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Without further ado, let's get to it.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ailin Perez ($6,900)
As an upright Judoka who was controlled on the ground for almost 10 minutes in her UFC debut, it seems odd that Stephanie Egger would be such a significant favorite. Perez is singularly-minded in the cage, wanting nothing more than to ground her opponents and work from top position. Egger could have a strength advantage here, but I can't justify passing on an active wrestler against a largely unproven commodity at this price.
Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,100)
Saint-Denis and newcomer Gabriel Miranda both grapple almost exclusively. This should result in big points regardless of who wins, but the French fighter seems much less frantic and sloppy in his approach, making him the one more likely to control his opponent in top position for long stretches. We have already seen how tough Saint-Denis can be to put away, and Miranda is a candidate to burn through his gas tank if he can't notch a victory early.
Abusupiyan Magomedov ($8,900)
Magomedov likes to stand a bit more than others with his surname, but when facing an opponent with a takedown defense rate below 50 percent, Abus would do well to use his strength and grappling ability to get the fight to the floor. While Dustin Stoltzfus showed in his fight with Gerald Meerschaert that he is no slouch on the mat, I expect Magomedov's cardio to win the day if the two engage in prolonged scrambles.
Cristian Quinonez ($7,900)
Khalid Taha succeeded on the regional scene by being fast and powerful, but the rote nature of his attacks combined with an inability to defend takedowns have made wins hard to come by at this level. Quinonez will not only wrestle but should be able to use his length and ability to counter punch as effective weapons as the shorter Taha tries to work his way into range with big shots.
Nathaniel Wood ($7,900)
Charles Jourdain has shown himself to be a dangerous man when given space, but the constant forward pressure and grappling of Shane Burgos made it difficult for "Air" to get his offense going. He will get more of the same from Wood, who will look to smother the kicks of his opponent by controlling the center of the Octagon. We have seen Jourdain's grappling be effective in the past, but he will need to show me an ability to stand up to an opponent who is constantly bearing down before I can pick him to win a fight like this.
Don't forget to try out these plays on the RotoWire DraftKings MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer. Also, check out Jon Litterine's full DraftKings UFC Paris Preview.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Alessio Di Chirico UNDER 1.5 Takedowns, Ciryl Gane UNDER 1.5 Takedowns, and Michal Figlak UNDER 2.0 Takedowns
Di Chirico relied heavily on his wrestling early in his UFC career, but the Italian fighter hasn't secured a takedown in any of his last four fights and should struggle to track down an agile kickboxer like Roman Kopylov. It's worth noting that "Manzo's" takedown accuracy rate stands at just 45 percent, which likely means he would need to be incredibly active in the grappling department to ground his opponent more than once.
Gane averages just 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time, making me wonder why line makers expect "Bon Gamin" to try and take the fight against Tai Tuivasa to the floor. There is no doubt that "Bam Bam" hits as hard as anyone in the division, but Gane will have overwhelming edges in speed and technique in addition to a six-inch reach advantage. This leads me to believe that Gane will try to chop Tuivasa down while avoiding his big power.
Figlak can wrestle when the situation calls for it, but he primarily likes to show off his boxing skills, which include sharp footwork and an ability to mix targets well. While Fares Ziam has picked fighters apart with his jab, Figlak's pressure should help him realize the success that will keep this fight on the feet.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Nasrat Haqparast OVER 88.5 Strikes and John Makdessi OVER 86.5 Strikes
High-volume kickboxing is the name of the game for both Haqparast and Makdessi, who land more than five significant strikes per 15 minutes of Octagon time. Neither man has shown much desire or acumen when it comes to takedown attempts, which means that these two will likely stand at range until the final bell. Those worried about this fight finishing early should rest easy with the knowledge that the two competitors have been TKO'd or submitted just five times in 43 combined fights.
Robert Whittaker UNDER 92.5 Strikes and Marvin Vettori UNDER 80.5 Strikes
DFS players are accustomed to seeing these men fight for 25 minutes, and while they have put up some impressive totals in main event bouts, it looks as though the line makers have overshot the numbers here. Vettori relies on wrestling and clinch scenarios for a significant portion of his offense, but Whittaker is notoriously difficult to get a hold of in the cage, which makes it likely that these two will have a kickboxing match for 15 minutes. Without short shots along the fence to beef up the numbers, I expect Whittaker to pick apart the Italian fighter over the course of three rounds as his own offense is stymied along the way.
Bets to Consider
Jarno Errens (+180)
William Gomis is a bundle of nerves in the cage, throwing big shots and hoping to find a clinch position to ground his opponent and work ferocious ground-and-pound. The issue is he often stands right in front of his opponents in an upright posture as he throws from the hip. Errens will need to be wary of the power that Gomis possesses, but he should be able to use his footwork and cleaner technique to win this battle of the debutantes.
Joaquin Buckley (+220)
This is another line that seems to present itself without much cause, as the only loss Nassourdine Imavov has suffered inside the Octagon to date came against another explosive athlete in Phil Hawes. Buckley can be a bit sloppy at times, but his advantages in speed and power should pay big dividends against Imavov, who looks to carve opponents up in boxing range. It's possible that the French fighter can stay on his bike long enough to frustrate "New Mansa" but the quality of Imavov's wins to this point doesn't scream "massive favorite" to me.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Paris Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire Sports Betting section.
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