A 13-fight card will be capped off with a questionable main event in terms of fan interest, but there's no doubt that we have plenty of intriguing fights to break down from betting and DFS perspectives for UFC Vegas 77. We'll cover each bout across four platforms, including underdog wrestlers looking to stifle their kick-boxing counterparts, and a UFC veteran who will go to work against an explosive but flawed prospect. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ailin Perez ($8,800)
Perez's struggles with the physicality of Stephanie Egger had me considering taking a shot on the dog here, but Ashlee Evans-Smith hasn't competed regularly since 2017 and looked lost in her last bout against Norma Dumont. Perez is quite agile despite her grappling base and should be able to beat Evans-Smith simply by being more aggressive, even if things don't go so well in the first five minutes.
Evan Elder ($9,400)
Genaro Valdez's style of swinging big shots into the clinch seems unintentional, as he hasn't shown much interest in grappling to this point in his UFC career. Whatever the reason, this will give Elder plenty of opportunities to hit reactive takedowns, while also controlling the fight with his jab when the two are in boxing range. Valdez will attempt to force a messy contest, which could make him viable in GPPs, but Elder has all of the skills and poise to weather the storm and take over the fight.
Alex Munoz ($8,300)
Carl Deaton showcased good boxing fundamentals in his UFC debut but looked completely lost off of his back, as evidenced by the nine minutes he spent defending against Joe Solecki before being put to sleep by a choke in the waning seconds of Round 2. Munoz may not be as technical on the ground as Solecki, but he is a physically strong grappler who serves as a wrestling coach for Team Alpha Male, a fight camp renowned for its prowess on the mat. While not much of a submission threat, Munoz should be able to pile up points with control time and relentless pursuit of the takedown.
Tucker Lutz ($7,000)
A 76 percent takedown defense rate might not signal that Melsik Baghdasaryan is particularly vulnerable to a wrestling approach, but we have seen the agile and powerful kickboxer slow down late in fights, and Lutz should stay on the attack from the opening bell. As dynamic as his offense can be, "The Gun" tends to sit back and try to catch his opponent on the counter, which could allow an aggressive fighter like Lutz to get ahead on the judges' scorecards. Melsik was submitted in the blink of an eye by a fighter certainly not known for his grappling in Josh Culibao, and Lutz is incredibly strong for the weight class.
Albert Duraev ($7,700)
Jun Yong Park can be a force when he is able to flow from his crisp boxing to top-control grappling but struggles against stronger opponents such as Eryk Anders and Gregory Rodrigues don't exactly bode well for a matchup against Duraev. While not as technical of a striker as "The Iron Turtle, Duraev will take the center of the Octagon and throw power shots before looking for takedowns. Park doesn't have the explosivity to get the respect of Duraev on the feet, nor the skill to outgrapple him on the ground, which leaves me wondering where he finds success as the slight favorite in this one.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Holly Holm OVER 90.5 Significant Strikes, Azat Maksum UNDER 43.5 Significant Strikes, Nazim Sadykhov Under 27.5 Significant Strikes, and Jack Della Maddalena UNDER 30.5 Significant Strikes.
We've seen Holm win countless bouts by using her agility, speed, and frame to stay on the outside and pick her opponent apart from range. This seems like the most likely outcome in her fight against Mayra Bueno Silva, who will need to attempt to close the distance by plodding after an opponent with a three-inch reach advantage. Holm has gotten better at clinch breaking and staying on her feet, and I expect her to punish a game Silva with strikes for the better part of 25 minutes as she enters into range.
The strike total for Maksum may not seem like a tall order, but Tyson Nam has a habit of slowing down fights as he waits for opponents to enter the pocket to unleash huge countershots. Add in the fact that Maksum will likely try to grapple here, and what you get is a fight where both men will be tentative when it comes to letting the hands go.
Whether or not you think Sadykhov has the technique and skill to surpass his total, the fact is that Terrance McKinney's fights don't last very long. A more cautious approach from "T. Wrecks" in his last bout with Gabriel Bonfim may be at least partially responsible for a second-round knockout loss in which he landed just 14 significant strikes. I expect McKinney to overcorrect in this one, forcing a fight on his opponent that ends in the first frame.
Rather than paying a premium for a Della Maddalena knockout prop, we can bet on the essence of one by taking the under on a relatively low total here. Unlike his opponent last week, Bassil Hafez is content to stay at range and box with his opponents, which seems like a terrible idea against someone with the power, speed, and creativity of the Australian fighter. My only hope is that after this one is over we can find an opponent to truly test Della Maddalena's skills.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Chelsea Chandler - 1.95 X Multiplier
I've often said of Norma Dumont that I'm not sure what she brings to the table aside from her physicality. This perception wasn't changed by seeing her walk through a clearly rusty Ashlee Evans-Smith or taking an extremely questionable decision against Karol Rosa in which she was on the wrong end of the total strikes by a significant margin. Chandler will actually have an inch of height and reach on the Brazilian fighter in this one, leaving her to use her superior striking and grappling to pick up the victory.
Austin Lingo – 2.2 X Multiplier
It's not often you see a big underdog turn into a sizeable favorite after a loss. It's even less likely when the fighter in question showed very little in terms of offense during that loss. Lingo may not set the world on fire, but he has a very clear idea of what he wants to do in the Octagon, working combinations off of his jab while taking space away from his opponent. Melquizael Costa will be the more athletic competitor here, but his game is hindered by too many big actions with little payoff. Lingo should win this fight simply by sticking to the basics, perhaps while throwing in a takedown attempt or two for good measure.
Francisco Prado – 1.8 X Multiplier
Prado had a hard time finding his range in his UFC debut, resulting in the Argentine landing just 31 strikes in a decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey. Still, I think his speed, agility, and defense will be enough to bounce back against Ottman Azaitar, whose main goal is to intimidate his opponents by throwing big strikes. Prado shouldn't have to worry about finding his target here, as "Bulldozer" will close distance for him, which should help the 21-year-old land his shots.
Bets to Consider
Istela Nunes and Viktoriia Dudakova Fight Goes to Decision (-105)
Nunes having been finished in two of her three UFC fights may make some bristle at this recommendation, but she remains a powerful counter striker with experience. Dudakova has been a menace on the ground en route to a 6-0 start to her professional MMA career, but I'm wondering if she will be able to successfully grapple with a fighter as strong as Nunes. I think we will see a lot of clinch work in this one, and while it will likely end with Dudakova coming out on top, it should be a victory decided on the judges' scorecards. The fact that the only decision win of her career came in her last fight on the Contender Series may be an indication that Dudakova will be less of a finishing threat as she progresses up the MMA competition ladder.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 77 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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