Over/Under Win Totals 2019: Fade Those not Trying
Over/Under Win Totals 2019: Fade Those not Trying

It's time to look at the 2019 MLB season from a wagering perspective. I'm a big fan of the season win total bets ever since I started making them in person in Las Vegas in the late 1990s.

It's a good exercise before the start of each season not only to make predictions on where you think the teams will finish, but also test those against the conventional wisdom expressed through money wagered in sportsbooks.

Over the last 18 years, I've come out ahead. My overall record is 47 for 82 (with one push) for 57.3 percent. My best bet each season is 16-13 (I had multiple biggest bets some years). I'm a little better on bets of $100 or more (I vary my bet size to emphasize how strongly I feel about the pick) where I'm 13-9 (59.1 percent). I'm most impressive on a weighted or cash basis, where I've been correct 61.5 percent of the time ($3,075 in winning bets, $1,925 in losers - not factoring in the vig).

I finally had a good season last year after a recent slump (1-7 the past two years), winning all three of my bets. (under on Arizona, Detroit and San Diego).

When I started writing this story in 2000 my idea was to see if you could be successful on these bets by sticking to some basic principals similar to investing in the stock market. While all kinds of new data has emerged and the stock market has seen some

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Peter Schoenke
Peter Schoenke is the president and co-founder of RotoWire.com. He's been elected to the hall of fame for both the Fantasy Sports Trade Association and Fantasy Sports Writers Association and also won the Best Fantasy Baseball Article on the Internet in 2005 from the FSWA. He roots for for the Minnesota Twins, Vikings and T-Wolves.
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