FanDuel MLB: Thursday Breakdown
FanDuel MLB: Thursday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Thursday's DFS action starts at 1:10 p.m. EDT with an early-only slate of just two games: Seattle at Detroit and Los Angeles at Miami. The main slate starts at 7:05 p.m. EDT with a total of eight matchups.

Pitching

The best pitcher on the main slate to use for cash games is the Reds' Sonny Gray ($9,800). He's scored 40 or more fantasy points in seven of his last eight starts and hit 70 in one of those games. The matchup against the Cardinals is good; St. Louis has a team .305 wOBA against right-handed pitching, the sixth lowest in baseball. Gray has a 10.2 K/9 on the season, and his 1.13 WHIP supports his 3.10 ERA. Gray and the Reds are a -160 home favorite, suggesting both the quality start and win bonuses are in play here.

One under-the-radar pitcher in play for cash games and GPPs is Arizona's Alex Young. This game has the lowest over/under of the main slate at 8.5 runs, and the Diamondbacks are -140 favorites. The Giants have the second-worst wOBA against left-handed pitching (.291) and strike out 23.5 percent of the time against that handedness. Both of those stats get worse for San Francisco when they've been on the road this season (.282 wOBA, 25.3 percent strikeout rate).

The Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka ($7,800) makes for a good play given his price and because he's pitching at home. His numbers across the board are better at home than on the road this season with a home ERA of 3.29 (6.48 on the road). His K/9 at home is 8.2, and he's won six of his eight games playing in Yankee Stadium. Cleveland hasn't faced Tanaka yet this season, which should give him the advantage.

Key Values/Chalk

The Reds' Jesse Winker ($2,900) is assigned at a reasonable price and has his best split at home against right-handed pitching. He sports a .400 wOBA in that window and gets to face Michael Wacha. While Wacha has struggled more against right-handed hitters, he has allowed a .361 wOBA to opposing left-handed hitters on the road.

The Angels' David Fletcher ($2,700) provides some good value at shortstop as a leadoff hitter who's at home in a good matchup. Like Winker, Fletcher's best split is at home against right-handed pitching, where he has a .379 wOBA. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez brings a 5.16 ERA into this contest, showing that he's not a pitcher to worry about. The Yankees' Didi Gregorius ($3,200) is another attractive option in this spot against Cleveland.

It's not exactly thinking outside of the box, but the Cubs' Kris Bryant ($3,800) facing a southpaw is always in play. Bryant has actually been better on the road than at home against left-handed pitching with a crazy .496 wOBA. Drew Smyly's 6.96 ERA is based around him being homer-prone, so look for Bryant or teammate Javier Baez to go yard in this one.

The Twins' Luis Arraez ($3,000) is in play with Minnesota expected to put up a lot of runs in Arlington. Arraez has a .348 batting average and has the backing of a team expected to score at least six runs. Pedro Payano's 1.71 WHIP doesn't exactly match his 3.86 ERA, suggesting some regression is coming soon to the ERA stat.

Another player who seems to go under the radar on a regular basis is the Rangers' Danny Santana. He'll be at home tonight in Arlington, arguably the best hitter's environment with no game at Coors Field. Santana has a .502 wOBA at home against left-handed pitching and will get the opportunity to tee off against Devin Smeltzer.

Stacks

Twins at Rangers (Pedro Payano)

C.J. Cron (C/1B - $3,400), Luis Arraez (2B - $3,000), Jorge Polanco (SS - $3,700), Max Kepler (OF - $4,000)

This will be one of the more popular stacks of the night – and rightfully so. This game has the highest over/under at 11.5 runs, and the Twins are -140 favorites against Payano. 

Reds vs. Cardinals (Michael Wacha)

Joey Votto (C/1B - $3,300), Jesse Winker (OF - $2,900), Eugenio Suarez (3B - $3,900), Nick Senzel (OF - $3,100)

Aristides Aquino (OF - $4,100) is another player worth consideration especially given that he'll probably be hitting cleanup and has a 1.543 OPS over the last week. Wacha has a 5.56 ERA on the road (1.64 WHIP) and the Great American Ball Park favors hitters.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin Payne plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: kevinccp, Draft Kings: kevinccp, Yahoo: kevinccp.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin Payne
Kevin has worked for RotoWire over a decade and has covered basketball, baseball and football. A glutton for punishment, he roots for his hometown Bills, Sabres and the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @KCPayne26.
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