My optimism on whether we will have a 2020 season probably peaked 10 days or so ago when news broke of an 82-game season proposal starting in July. In this scenario, we would have a half-season with a DH and expanded roster. Lots of fantasy implications there right? At this point with all the issues surrounding finances (revenue split) and player safety, I'm probably more like 40 percent confident that I'll be grilling, having a beer and watching baseball on July 4. Regardless, this column goes on, so let's discuss a few of my sleepers based on this potential new reality.
Kevin Cron, Arizona
Maybe I'm a bit biased here, but as someone who lives in Reno and gets to watch the Diamondbacks' Triple-A affiliate, the Reno Aces, I've seen enough of Cron to know that he can hit the ball very, very far. Of course, Reno is at a mile-high elevation in some places, so it's a band box, but then again, Cron hit 38 homers in Triple-A and 45 overall in 2019, so you don't get that sort of power without having talent. For the Aces, Cron batted a ridiculous .331/.449/.777(!) before hitting six homers with Arizona in route to a .211/.269/.521 slash in 78 PA. Nice power, but the 28:4 K:BB is obviously not good, though that same ratio was an excellent 77:61 in Reno in 82 games (still a 20.6 K percentage). At this point, looking through the Arizona depth chart, we could see Cron
My optimism on whether we will have a 2020 season probably peaked 10 days or so ago when news broke of an 82-game season proposal starting in July. In this scenario, we would have a half-season with a DH and expanded roster. Lots of fantasy implications there right? At this point with all the issues surrounding finances (revenue split) and player safety, I'm probably more like 40 percent confident that I'll be grilling, having a beer and watching baseball on July 4. Regardless, this column goes on, so let's discuss a few of my sleepers based on this potential new reality.
Kevin Cron, Arizona
Maybe I'm a bit biased here, but as someone who lives in Reno and gets to watch the Diamondbacks' Triple-A affiliate, the Reno Aces, I've seen enough of Cron to know that he can hit the ball very, very far. Of course, Reno is at a mile-high elevation in some places, so it's a band box, but then again, Cron hit 38 homers in Triple-A and 45 overall in 2019, so you don't get that sort of power without having talent. For the Aces, Cron batted a ridiculous .331/.449/.777(!) before hitting six homers with Arizona in route to a .211/.269/.521 slash in 78 PA. Nice power, but the 28:4 K:BB is obviously not good, though that same ratio was an excellent 77:61 in Reno in 82 games (still a 20.6 K percentage). At this point, looking through the Arizona depth chart, we could see Cron seeing the short side of a DH platoon with Jake Lamb. Lamb though has hit just .208 with several injuries the past two years, so that would seem to give Cron a decent shot of stealing at-bats versus RHP as the season progresses.
Josh Naylor, San Diego
At this point, I'm expecting Franchy Cordero to be the primary beneficiary in San Diego of an NL DH, but Cordero hasn't always been a productive and healthy guy, so that's no lock. Naylor could be next in line should there be an opening either in a corner OF spot or DH. Naylor was less than impressive in 279 PA for the Padres last season, batting .249/.315/.403 with eight home runs and a 0.39 BB/K. That said, he was just 22 last season and Naylor did bat .314/.389/.547 in the Pacific Coast League. At 5'11" and a listed 222 pounds, DH is probably ultimately his landing spot, so that sort of MLB slash line won't fly. He's a risk, but he's also a guy who scouts tagged with a 70 on the scouting scale for his power, so that's still worth a look in deeper leagues.
Kyle Tucker, Houston
Tucker has received looks in each of the past two years, but ultimately, he just hasn't hit, batting .206/.278/.374 in 144 PA. Realistically, the sample size is still quite small, and Tucker is just 23. If we look at his Triple-A numbers, they are much more impressive. In 225 games, Tucker sports a .297/.375/.571 slash with 58 homers and 50 stolen bases. His 10.8 BB percentage and 20 percent K percentage are both solid, so he should hit eventually. Expanded rosters will get him a spot to begin the season, but what about playing time? The Astros have Yordan Alvarez as their primary DH, and both the outfield slots and first base are filled, so at this point, it looks like Tucker will receive sporadic playing time at multiple positions, which probably isn't ideal for his development. If spring training picks back up next month, Tucker may have a shot still to get more time, as he was on an 8-for-13 run prior to things shutting down. Josh Reddick's excellent defense is keeping him as the RF starter, but if his .728 2019 OPS regresses significantly, we probably see more Tucker.
Matt Kemp, Miami
This one is a long shot, as Kemp is now 35 and coming off a year in which he missed most of the season with a broken rib. Even in April, Kemp hit a paltry .200/.210/.283 in 62 PA, though remember, he was an All-Star in 2018 before hitting just .255/.313/.406 in the second half (though his September OPS was .922). Kemp was just 4-for-28 this spring and with his defense having fallen off sharply in recent years, I wouldn't expect much of him in the field. He could, though, get a run at DH if he looks better once things start back up. At this point, I'd probably think a guy like Jesus Aguilar would see a lot of time at DH with Garrett Cooper playing first. In theory, Kemp could see time versus LHP in right field if Don Mattingly is comfortable putting him out there, but that may not be the best idea. The Marlins will also want to get other looks at guys like Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra, so again, Kemp making his way to regular at-bats is a big long shot, but that 2018 season is still fresh in my mind.
Nate Pearson, Toronto
Expecting the Blue Jays to compete for a playoff spot may be a stretch, but I'll say what you've probably already heard dozens of times – in a short season, anything can happen. The Jays clearly have some intriguing young hitters, but beyond Hyun-Jin Ryu, there are more questions than answers in the rotation. That's where Pearson could come in. With the shortened season, the Jays no longer have to worry about any sort of innings limitation with Pearson. It was reported last week that Pearson was a candidate to begin the season on the taxi squad, meaning simulated games until the Jays feel he's ready to join the team. It may just take a blow up or two from one of the non-Ryu starters for that to happen.
Lane Thomas, St. Louis
The universal DH would seem to solidify a guy like Dylan Carlson's spot, but there are certainly no guarantees that all of Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill, and even Carlson himself, come in and hit well right away. That could open up at-bats for Thomas, who in 44 PA last year with the Cardinals hit an impressive .316/.409/.684 after a .268/.352/.460 Triple-A slash. He doesn't project to be a superstar, but a guy with decent on-base ability who can hit 20 homers and steal 15 bases still has value. Thomas received good praise this spring from the Cardinals' hitting coaches, and with his ability to play center field, that could get his bat in the lineup with some level of regularity if he comes out hitting right away.
Victor Caratini, Chicago Cubs
I'd expect a lot of clubs to carry a third catcher with the expanded rosters, and for the Cubs, that would free Caratini for some work at other positions, including spelling Anthony Rizzo at first, Kyle Schwarber at DH, and even left field if the Cubs are comfortable with him there defensively. Caratini had a bit of a breakout 2019, batting .266/.348/.447 in 279 at-bats, including 11 home runs and solid ratios – 10.4 BB percentage, 21.1 K percentage – additionally, in 119 career games at the Triple-A level, Caratini has an impressive .332/.393/.527 slash, including 14 homers and a very nice 15.4 K percentage. We also heard some rumblings the Cubs were considering dealing starting catcher Willson Contreras this winter, so maybe that eventually comes to fruition and Caratini is tabbed the starter.
Jake Bauers, Cleveland
A career .214 hitter in 811 PA at the big-league level, Bauers was just 4-for-28 this spring before the shutdown, putting him firmly on the bubble. He'll certainly be a candidate now, though to avoid the taxi squad and make the main roster, he'll have to come out hitting in spring training round two. Though Bauers has done nothing to make anyone think he's going to be a big league regular, he's still a guy who once hit .276 as a 19-year-old in Double-A, which is pretty impressive. Of course, that was five years ago, but the possibility he's going to be a late bloomer is still there in my mind. If the Indians use Carlos Santana at first base and roll with an outfield of Tyler Naquin/Oscar Mercado/Franmil Reyes with Domingo Santana at DH, that leaves Bauers in a reserve role, but are all of those guys going to be healthy and productive all year? Seems unlikely, giving Bauers a potential line on playing time…if he can hit.
Austin Nola, Seattle
As it stands, Nola is listed as a backup at multiple positions, including catcher, first base, third base, possibly second base and in the corner outfield slots. Nola reached the big leagues at the ripe old age of 29 and fared well, batting .269/.342/.454 in 267 PA after tearing up Triple-A pitching (.327/.415/.520). Prior to 2019, Nola had just 15 career home runs in 718 minor league games but broke out for a combined 17 long balls in 134 games last year. Throughout his minor league career, Nola maintained an excellent 10.6 K percentage and 15.7 BB percentage, so he has some bat control, and combined with the boost in his power last year, he could at least develop a niche as a versatile utility guy, giving him value in deeper leagues. In addition, should rookie Evan White not live up to his six-year deal, Nola could start to steal more and more playing time at first.
J.D. Davis, NY Mets
Davis was probably going to be the everyday left fielder regardless, but the DH probably solidifies that and if he's healthy, Yoenis Cespedes as the regular DH. Davis came into 2019 having hit just .194 in 181 career MLB PA, all with the Astros. So naturally, the Mets turned him into a guy who hit .307/.369/.527 in 453 PA, including 22 home runs. If you grabbed this guy early in the year, kudos. Davis' ADP (175 for now) probably reflects some skepticism, as he's only "done it" for 140 games. Another point in Davis' favor is that he hits right-handed in a very lefty-heavy lineup, so it seems unlikely he'll be a platoon guy.
