This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
I dove into Corbin Burnes last week to show how his rise in 2020 was more than just simple BABIP and HR/FB regression and where his improvement came from. I am enjoying his resurgence in 2020 because I wrote about him in my Bold Prediction series, included him in the Value in the Scrap Heap article for the annual and recommended him to anyone who asked while targeting him in every draft possible.
This week, we will swing the other way to look into a pitcher I did not like for 2020 who has spent the entire season pitching as if he read my piece and, every time he takes the baseball, has been doing what Rick Vaughn said he would do to Lou Brown in Major League. I'm talking about Shane Bieber, who I said would not be a top-20 pitcher in 2020 but is currently the top pitcher in our Earned Auction Value tool.
First off, I am truly sorry if my guidance led you to avoid Bieber at his price in drafts. I had my reasons, which we will get into, but I can't recall a time where my suggestion to fade a player in my Bold Prediction series went THIS badly where the player ended up contending for the Cy Young or MVP. This is what I said about Bieber in late January with a very ominous qualifier in the opening paragraph:
Bieber is the eighth pitcher off the board with an ADP of 27