MLB Betting: Sunday's Best Bets

MLB Betting: Sunday's Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous day: 4-1, +2.28 units       
Season: 19-6, +7.41 units

Another strong Sunday in the books in which we just missed on another sweep of the board as the Giants and Pirates were tied 1-1 after the fifth inning last week.  With a full slate of 15 games, I always want to look at the lower scoring environments in National League parks for our strikeout props. I also like to find bad numbers and I think we found one in Cleveland/Minnesota.

Red Sox at Phillies 1:05 p.m. EDT

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Zack Wheeler

Quick late add to the Sunday Best Bets as this is EXACTLY why I bet Sundays. The Red Sox lineup is without Alex Verdugo, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts, and has the pitcher hitting.   This strikeout prop has jumped in most spots from -140 to -165 on over 6.5, so I have to look at 7.5 options with some plus juice. Wheeler averages 7.3 strikeouts per game and faces a significantly weaker Red Sox lineup.

BET: Zack Wheeler over 7.5 strikeouts (+102 on FanDuel Sportsbook; was +124) for 1 RW buck

Twins vs. Indians 1:10 p.m. EDT

J.A. Happ vs. Zach Plesac

I do not bet under-strikeout props often in this current environment, but I do believe we have a bad line here on Plesac. My numbers put this prop at 4.5, so with a 5.5 posted I want to take advantage.

Plesac's strikeout rate is only 17 percent and even with Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz and Jorge Polanco out, the Twins only struck out six times against Shane Bieber on Saturday. Plesac has gone under 5.5 strikeouts in six out of nine starts this year. The Twins only struck out four times against Plesac on April 26.

BEST BET: Plesac under 5.5 strikeouts (-107) for 1.5 RW bucks

Dodgers vs. Giants 4:05 p.m. EDT

Julio Urias vs. Anthony DeSclafani

I was on both Trevor Bauer and Alex Wood's over strikeout props Friday night, both of which cashed (personal bets, I did not post them on RotoWire) and I like the scenario to play out again with Julio Urias and Anthony DeSclafani. I thought there was at least one strikeout of value on both pitchers' Friday night, and I think the same in this game.

Urias has struck out at least six batters in seven out of nine starts this year with a 27.6 percent K rate. There is this misconception that the Giants do not strike out, but they do at a 26.3 percent rate (7th highest) and 24.8 percent at home (12th highest). However, if you look at their rate vs. left-handed pitchers it is only 20.5 percent, which is seventh lowest.  If Urias can go six innings and face 24 batters, he should get to at least six strikeouts.

DeSclafani has struck out 12 batter in 12 innings in his three home starts this year. He should go at least five or six innings with a low total in the game of 7.5. His lowest strikeout numbers have come in three starts against the Padres, and his two biggest strikeout games have been against the Rockies (17 in two starts at home). He gets a weaker Dodgers lineup, and I like him to go at least six innings.

BET: Urias over 5.5 strikeouts (-139) for 1 RW buck
BET: DeSclafani over 4.5 strikeouts (+105) for 1 RW buck

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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