After a robust, full 15-game main slate Friday, we've got a seriously reduced six-game main slate Saturday evening. It's not short of big-name arms however, and it seems incredibly weak on the low end, likely forcing spending on the bump and searching for quality value bats as a result.
Pitching
Kevin Gausman, SF vs. CHC ($11,200): Talk about contrarian, as paying just $300 less for Gausman than Jacob deGrom seems like blasphemy. But Gausman has been worth at least 43 FanDuel points (FDP) in eight straight, and the Cubs come in with a significantly higher K rate (25.1 percent vs. 20.6 percent for the Padres against deGrom). This discount isn't significant if you aren't buying into Gausman's season-long form. But I like this matchup and ballpark upgrade, especially paired with likely low usage.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD at ATL ($10,000): Atlanta is awful offensively, big names be damned, and they are my team. The bottom third of the order is automatically out, and they rely on the homer almost exclusively for offense, something Kershaw is allowing only at a 1.02 rate per nine. A 25 percent K rate against lefties gives Kershaw upside.
Alex Cobb, LAA at SEA ($8,500): The bottom tier of this pitching slate is a bunch of yuck, so Cobb seems as low as I'm personally willing to go. He's been worth 30 FDP or better in three straight and five of seven, and faces a Mariners lineup that is fanning 25.5 percent of the time against righties while posting just a .289 wOBA and .158 ISO.
Top Targets
Cody Bellinger, LAD at ATL ($4,500): Bellinger clearly isn't in form, so it's very surprising to see him as the slate's top-priced bat. It's also going to lead to low usage. The appeal is the matchup, as Atlanta starter Charlie Morton has been hit hard by lefties, particularly in Truist Park, where he's allowing a .372 wOBA and 3.1 HR/9. We clearly need a long ball at this price, so the play is chasing power, but with Max Muncy questionable, we don't have many other lefty options to target in this lineup.
Mark Canha, OAK at COL ($4,200): Canha has five hits in his last three games, resulting in four runs and six RBI, and he homered in last night's first game at Coors Field. His .368 wOBA and .247 ISO aren't as robust as teammate Matt Olson's, but we'll trust the LvR matchup against Rockies' starter Kyle Freeland to anchor lineups Saturday.
Rafael Devers, BOS at NYY ($3,500): I really don't understand this number. Devers has a .406 wOBA against righties, just .030 lower than J.D. Martinez, but his .372 ISO is far superior. Mix in the fact that Yankees' starter Jameson Taillon is allowing a .388 wOBA to lefties, and there's a clear recipe for success. The price seems to make this an even further slam dunk.
Value Bats
Justin Upton, LAA at SEA ($3,000): With limited options, we can go for feast or famine options to round out lineups. I admittedly don't love this number given Upton's .210 batting average, but he's got a .410 wOBA, 168 wRC+ and .333 ISO against lefties.
Brandon Crawford, SF vs. CHC ($2,800): I really want to stack Giant bats here, but the splits are more favorable to injured players like Brandon Belt and Mike Yastrzemski. Crawford is the exception, carrying a team-high .415 wOBA, and 167 wRC+, adding a .286 ISO. I have no idea how Cubs' starter Kohl Stewart shut down the Padres in his first 2021 appearance, but he's not someone we should be concerned with, not pitching in the big leagues in 2020 and posting a 6.05 FIP in 2019.
Will Smith, LAD at ATL ($2,200): Smith was behind the dish Friday, but we'll assume he's getting the nod again, and this price seems far too low to pass up. He leads all Dodger regulars against righties with a .408 wOBA and 162 wRC+, and while his power has been lacking of late (no homers since May 20), he doesn't need to do much to return at this tag, and it's also hard to find someone in a run-producing spot in the order for this number
Stack to Consider
Rockies vs. Cole Irvin: C.J. Cron ($3,700), Joshua Fuentes ($3,400), Garrett Hampson ($3,300)
What a time to be playing DFS where we can stack Rockies' bats, at home, all for under 4K. Cron's .402 wOBA and 143 wRC+ is the lowest of the trio, while Hampson owns a 197 wRC+ and .377 ISO in this spot. A's starter Cole Irvin has been peculiarly more vulnerable to same-handed bats, but that's not a trend I'm willing to buy into in a plus spot at Coors Field.
