A 12-game main slate is on tap for Tuesday evening at FanDuel, starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Four arms are priced in five-figure territory with four more at $9,000 or greater, giving us a third of the pitching options in a pay-up tier.
The Astros (-360) are massive favorites, followed by the Dodgers (-188) and Yankees (-184). Tigers-Athletics is our only double-digit run total at 11.0 while Cubs-Giants is the low point at 7.5. Weather looks dry across the slate, and we're cooler than usual on the east coast so balls may not carry as usual. Wind looks like a minor plus in Yankee Stadium.
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Pitching
Hunter Brown, HOU vs. COL ($10,800): We've got a plethora of fadeable arms on this slate, as guys are either running out of gas or backing off before a playoff resurgence. As such, I'm willing to pay up for Brown, who hasn't shown those signs lately. He's got three quality starts in his last four and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his last five outings. His strikeouts aren't massive, but they can play up against a woeful Rockies offense that has a 25.8 percent K rate against righties, and a 77 wRC+.
Luis Gil, NYY vs. WSH ($8,300): Gil seems to be the opposite of fading, as he's set to make just his fifth start of the season and was able to top 90 pitches in his last outing. Walks are a major concern, as he's issued 13 free passes in 19.0 innings, but the Nationals rank 24th against righties with a 7.9 percent walk rate. There's reasonable win chances for Gil, and a quality start is available if his control cooperates. The Nationals have a 99 wRC+, slightly below average, and a minimal 20.2 percent K rate off righties. That limits Gil's ceiling, but a 3.5x return is feasible.
Andre Pallante, STL vs. PIT ($6,400): Due to fading form, you can take a gamble on a few of the cheap arms Tuesday, with Pallante's adversary in Mitch Keller and Texas' Patrick Corbin also having solid matchups and terrible form. Pallante is the cheapest of the trio, however. He has just one quality start since July 1 and has allowed 15 runs and 21 hits across his last 12.0 innings. Gross, right? But he's gone for 21 FDP in three of his last five, a 3.3x return. That July 1 start came against these Pirates, who are a collective 13-for-72 (.181) with a .605 OPS against him.
Top Targets
Bobby Witt ($3,800) has a 14-game hitting streak (22 hits total), scoring 14 times in that span. He has a .374 wOBA and 138 wRC+ off lefties, and while he's just 2-for-9 off Martin Perez, one of those left the yard.
All things Philadelphia have to be considered against Sean Manaea, who has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts, and eight different Phillies have taken him deep previously. Trea Turner ($3,800) has had a down year against lefties (.336 wOBA) but has reached base in 15 straight games, collecting 27 hits. Kyle Schwarber ($4,500) hasn't homered in his last four, but leads the Phillies with a .398 wOBA, 157 wRC+ and .328 ISO off lefties.
Wyatt Langford ($3,500) has hits in five of six, three times getting multiple knocks, and that surge includes two homers. He's 4-for-10 off Yusei Kikuchi and has a team-best 130 wRC+ off lefties.
Bargain Bats
For cheaper Phillies exposure, Nick Castellanos ($3,000) has three multi-hit games in his last five, and is 6-for-19 (.316) with three homers off Manaea. If he's in the lineup, Edmundo Sosa ($2,400) has four-position eligibility, a .394 wOBA and 154 wRC+ off lefties, and is 5-for-10 with a homer, double and triple off the Mets starter.
We'll likely want some Tigers and Athletics exposure. A's pitcher Osvaldo Bido's innings are uncertain, so splits aren't overly helpful. Spencer Torkelson ($3,200) has homered in two of three. Kerry Carpenter ($3,000) had three hits last night and knocks in five of eight. On the other side, Charlie Morton has been solid lately, so not a lot of A's stand out. Jacob Wilson ($2,900) has hit in three of four since coming off the IL, driving in four.
Paul Goldschmidt ($2,600) has minimal upside, but offers a cheap entry into the Yankees lineup, potentially at the top of it, and he still boasts a .482 wOBA, 216 wRC+ and .293 ISO off lefties.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Tanner Gordon (Rockies): Jeremy Pena ($3,300), Yordan Alvarez ($3,000), Christian Walker ($2,900)
This is about as obvious as it gets. Gordon has allowed 35 runs across 44.1 innings overall, and he's been worse on the road, surrendering 19 runs and 26 hits across 12.1 frames! He's allowing a .501 wOBA and 1.193 OPS to lefties away from Coors, and .416/.942 to righties. Walker has homered in three of his last four and gives us some cheap power upside, as does Alvarez, assuming he's activated from the IL. Pena isn't overpriced, has two multi-hit games in his last three, and gives us a leadoff option in front of the power options.
Blue Jays vs. Bailey Ober (Twins): Vladimir Guerrero ($3,400), George Springer ($3,300), Bo Bichette ($3,000)
Ober has a 5.89 road ERA (4.90 xFIP), allowing a .406 wOBA and .957 OPS to righties. There's no BvP success here, as the listed trio is 7-for-35 (.200) with only Springer having homered off him, so we'll have to trust those road splits. Bichette is a fine stand-alone play, boasting a 10-game hitting streak while collecting 17 hits and nine runs. Springer has hit safely in eight of nine since returning from the IL, homering four times. Guerrero is a little pricey and only two games removed from returning to action from a minor hamstring issue, so he may not be in form yet, but he offers a third top of the order run-producing option.
