It saddens me to say this, but we're down to the final month of the regular season. That's still a ton of baseball to play, but it's truly a sprint to the finish line when evaluating these teams' records. To put it in comparison, it's like the final 3-4 weeks of an NFL season. Think about how important every game is at that point, and that's what we're looking at in MLB. What's fascinating is that we have some great young pitchers in some sensational spots, so let's get started by talking about three of those guys!
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Pitching
Noah Cameron, KC at CWS ($8,700)
The Royals have been trying to hang around in the playoff hunt, and the emergence of Cameron is a major reason why they're still alive. The rookie has allowed two runs or fewer in 14 of 18 starts, sporting a 2.53 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. That has him in contention for AL Rookie of the Year, and he held the White Sox to one run across 5.1 innings in their last matchup. That's no surprise since Chicago sits 28th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and 27th in wOBA.
Cam Schlittler, NYY vs. WAS ($7,700)
Schlittler has developed into one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball. The rookie righty is always hovering around 100 mph, and he threw 6.2 scoreless innings in his most recent outing. He actually carried a perfect game into the seventh inning in that matchup with Tampa, and he's totaled a 3.22 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. He's also allowed three runs or fewer in all seven starts after posting a K rate north of 30 percent in the minors. This Washington lineup isn't far from a minor-league team, ranked 24th in wOBA and OPS. The best part is how the oddsmakers feel, making Schlittler a -200 favorite in this matchup.
Michael McGreevy, STL vs. PIT ($6,300)
Some of the numbers from McGreevy are ugly, but he seems to get the job done against weak competition. Four duds against some of the best offenses have undone a solid season, with McGreevy maintaining a 2.02 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through his other six starts. We're willing to overlook those stinkers in a matchup like this. The Pirates have developed into the worst offense in baseball, ranked dead last in runs scored, OPS and wOBA. They're also ranked 27th in K rate, while McGreevy enters this matchup as a -140 favorite.! He dropped 18 DK points in their only matchup last season.
Top Targets
Julio Rodriguez, SEA (vs. JP Sears) $5,300
J-Rod has truly turned into a second-half player, looking like an MVP candidate after every All-Star break. It's difficult to understand why that happens, but it's hard to argue with his .296 AVG, .645 SLG and .984 OPS across his last 37 fixtures. He's also got eight steals in that span, and now he's facing one of the worst pitchers on this slate. Not only does J-Rod have the platoon advantage against Sears, but the southpaw has a 4.94 ERA this season. Seattle is a stackable team in this matchup, with Josh Naylor ($4,600), Randy Arozarena ($4,900) and Jorge Polanco ($3,300) all in play.
Kerry Carpenter, DET (vs. J.T. Ginn) $5,100
Many people don't realize it, but Carpenter has been one of the Tigers' best bats this season. He's been hitting third for them whenever they match up with a right-hander, amassing a .285 AVG and .887 OPS with the platoon advantage. That pairs beautifully with his recent form, as he's totaled a .278 AVG, .653 SLG and .990 OPS across his last 22 fixtures. That's bad news for Ginn, who has generated a 4.95 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. We wouldn't mind a full-on Motor City Kitties stack, with Riley Greene ($5,500) and Spencer Torkelson ($4,800) looking like the best fits with Carpenter.
Bargain Bats
Lars Nootbaar, STL (vs. Johan Oviedo) $4,100
Nootbaar has struggled with injuries this season, but the outfielder has been much better since coming off the IL. He has a .368 AVG and .926 OPS across his last nine outings. Almost all of that damage has happened against righties, with Nootbaar tallying a .356 OBP and .788 OPS against them since his call-up. The superb splits have Nootbaar batting leadoff for the Cards regularly. That's bad news for a fill-in like Oviedo, and we'll talk about him more in the Stack to Consider section.
Andrew Vaughn, MIL (vs. Eduardo Rodriguez) $3,700
We can't give Vaughn all of the credit for the Brewers' success, but they've won 31 of 40 games since he joined them. It's far from surprising when seeing Vaughn's numbers, as he's accrued a .386 OBP, .560 SLG and .945 OPS for Milwaukee. That's why he's hitting in the five hole for the second-highest scoring lineup in baseball. Having the platoon advantage against a guy with a 1.61 WHIP is the icing on the cake, with Vaughn posting an OPS above .900 against lefties as a Brewer. We also like the rest of the lineup, and we'll dive into that below.
Stacks to Consider
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Oviedo): Willson Contreras ($4,700), Ivan Herrera ($4,500), Alec Burleson ($4,300), Nootbaar ($4,100)
St. Louis has been a tough team to stack at times this season, but they have plenty of good bats to offer in a spot like this. While we initially wanted to use the Cards against Mitch Keller, we'll settle for Oviedo. The Pirates righty has a 4.88 career xFIP and 1.40 WHIP. He also surrendered 10 baserunners across 3.2 innings in his last matchup with St. Louis.
We already talked about Nootbaar, but Contreras is right there with him. The veteran has a .376 OBP and 1.001 OPS across his last 25 outings. As for Herrera, he's been hitting second every day behind his .363 career OBP and .775 OPS. Burleson is the final piece of the stack as the three-hole hitter, producing a .808 OPS against right-handers this year.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Rodriguez): Christian Yelich ($5,200), William Contreras ($4,900), Brice Turang ($4,300), Vaughn ($3,700)
Rodriguez has been better than his ratios would indicate, but his ratios are atrocious. The lefty has a 5.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this season. That's horrifying in a road start against a Brewers team that ranks second in OBP and runs scored, and which is projected to score over five runs in this game.
Yelich is always the first option in a Milwaukee stack, maintaining a .307 OBP and .973 OPS across his last 24 outings. Contreras is equally hot, collecting a .402 OBP and .996 OPS over his last 25 games. He also has a .402 OBP and .904 OPS against lefties since 2023. Turang is the final piece, totaling a 1.190 OPS across his last 20 games while showcasing both speed and power.
