A 10-game main slate is on tap Tuesday at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:10 p.m. EDT. We've only got five pay-up options on the mound, so we're forced to decide if we want to focus on stability and ceiling potential, or if we're willing to take a discount for potential but with volatility.
Coors Field is present, where the Blue Jays erupted for 15 runs Monday, unsurprisingly giving us the slate's highest run total at 11.5. White Sox-Mariners is our low point at 7.5. The Mariners (-250), Blue Jays (-240) and Red Sox (-245) lead the way as favorites. We'll need to monitor rain potential in Atlanta, but otherwise weather does not look like a major factor Tuesday. It will be hot in Denver, giving the already favorable location a slight boost in balls carrying.
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Pitching
Freddy Peralta, MIL at ATL ($9,600): Use Garrett Crochet ($11,000) if you can afford him; Nathan Eovaldi ($10,200) is a nice pivot for GPPs, and Bryan Woo ($10,100) is the obvious arm who will likely have a boosted roster rate due to a matchup against the White Sox. Peralta offers us ceiling with a reasonable discount, however. Atlanta hitters are a combined 11-for-50 against the righty with a .587 OPS and a 21.5 percent K rate. The bottom third of that lineup is incredibly limited, and they've proven all year they can't string together multiple hits and scoring rallies. Peralta's 1.1 HR/9 further aids his appeal. Just monitor rain here.
Jose Soriano, LAA vs. RB ($8,700): I have interest in both sides of this pitching matchup, but Soriano is cheaper and in better form, thus getting the nod for the column. He's turned in three straight quality starts and has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six outings. He has an elevated 4.92 home ERA, but a 3.37 xFIP and the strikeouts have been more plentiful at home as well (9.6 per nine). Tampa is above average against righties (106 wRC+) but strikes out 22.0 percent of the time, and are another unit where injuries have zapped some of their punch.
Clay Holmes, NYM vs. CLE ($7,500): Holmes is fading fast and it looks like the move to starting is wearing on him this late in the season. Nothing suggests a return to early-season form is coming, as he doesn't have a quality start since June 7, but he's gone at least five innings in seven of nine starts since that outing, so a win is still possible. His salary has dropped enough to consider him as a paydown option in this matchup. Cleveland ranks 26th against righties with a 93 wRC+. The ceiling here is further limited by a lack of strikeouts, as Holmes put up just a 4.9 K/9 in July. There's a path to at least a 3x return if not slightly better with some clean innings and run support, however.
Top Targets
We're obviously starting with Blue Jay bats, who aren't priced super high for Coors Field. Anthony Molina doesn't have enough big-league innings to consider splits, so building around a white-hot Bo Bichette ($3,600) is a nice starting point. Bichette has 30 hits across his last 17 games, and went yard twice in Monday's rout.
The Dodgers' big three all have solid BvP numbers against Miles Mikolas. Shohei Ohtani ($4,800) is likely too pricey, but he's 4-for-8. Mookie Betts ($3,400) is 4-for-10 with two homers, but is also 0-for-20 over his last five games. That leaves us with Freddie Freeman ($3,700), who is 9-for-20 with three homers off Mikolas. Freeman has a seven-game hitting streak going in which he's homered three times, driving in nine.
Bargain Bats
It's a small sample size, but Jackson Merrill ($3,200) is 4-for-9 off Arizona starter Ryne Nelson. Merrill has six hits in his last four, and at least one in 13 of 14.
Trevor Story ($3,200) is too hot for this salary, and for us to even consider splits. He's got 10 hits and three homers over his last six, never scoring fewer than 12.7 fantasy points. Boston comes with a 5.7 implied run total, amongst the highest on the slate.
Isaac Collins ($2,700) is making a Rookie of the Year push, having hits in nine of his last 10 (14 total) while adding six walks. He offers a low-ceiling, non-zero floor for cheap. Staying in Atlanta, Michael Harris ($2,700) went hitless last night, but had 10 hits in his previous five games and is surging thanks to a mechanical adjustment that's finally paying dividends.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Yu Darvish (Padres): Corbin Carroll ($4,200), Ketel Marte ($3,800), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,900)
Perhaps Darvish's last start was the start of a resurgence, but he's an aging arm that had been knocked around by some bad offenses prior, and he isn't missing bats like he used to at just 6.9 Ks per nine. Most nights a mini-stack of Carroll and Marte is advisable, and while it's pricey, they're far and away the most trustworthy Diamondbacks left after the trade deadline selloff. They also boast solid BvP success, as they're a collective 19-for-53 (.358) with four homers. Gurriel lands here simply for some salary relief and that he slots into the cleanup spot now. He's in quietly decent form with five hits and four RBI in his last four.
Rangers vs. Will Warren (Yankees): Corey Seager ($3,400), Wyatt Langford ($3,200), Josh Smith ($2,900)
Warren has labored on the road with a 7.20 ERA, and it's lefties that have doomed him, allowing a .421 wOBA and .994 OPS. We can lean into those splits with Seager, who is a great stand alone play and gives us upside, and Smith, who has far less potential but comes cheap, hits atop the order and offers five-position flexibility. Texas is short a third left-handed viable option, so Langford gets the nod by default, offering this stack some additional power potential.
