For a lot of people, Thursday is an extension of the 4th of July weekend. By the time these MLB games start, a lot of folks will be enjoying a long weekend and maybe a proper vacation. There are seven games on the docket, with the first pitch at 7:07 p.m. ET. Here are my MLB DFS recommendations for Thursday.
Pitching
Bryan Woo, SEA vs. KAN ($9,700): Like many Mariners pitchers, Woo is better at home. In his career he has a 2.58 ERA in Seattle, and this year his home ERA is down to 2.08. Not only is Woo pitching at home Thursday, but he gets to face the Royals. The Royals, for those unaware, are last in runs scored.
Seth Lugo, KAN at SEA ($8,300): For my other pitching recommendation, I'm flipping this matchup around. After all, this is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Mariners are above average in runs scored, but they have several hitters who are worse at home. Last year, Lugo surprised with a 3.00 ERA for the Royals, but this year his ERA is actually down to 2.74. Over his last four starts, the righty has an 1.26 ERA for good measure.
Top Targets
Like many a Met, Francisco Lindor ($5,400) has gone cold, but on the season he has 17 homers and 13 stolen bases. This is a guy who fell one swiped bag short of his second 30/30 campaign in a row last year. Plus, he may be cold, but this year Lindor has a .937 OPS at home. Former Met Jose Quintana has a 3.30 ERA but a 4.41 FIP. He also has a 1.52 K/BB rate, making it likely Lindor is able to get on base.
Over the last three weeks, Mike Trout ($4,700) has an .889 OPS. On the season he has an .831 OPS versus his fellow righties, and he's actually been decidedly better against right-handed pitchers over the last few years. Bryce Elder has posted a 6.12 ERA over the last two campaigns and righties have hit over .280 against him in that time.
Bargain Bats
Eligible at second base and third base, Daniel Schneemann ($3,700) has eight homers and five swiped bags in 66 games. He's been quite poor against lefties, but his .741 OPS versus righties is at least viable for the right matchup. Rookie righty Cade Horton has a 4.80 ERA, and lefties have hit .295 against him.
Even though last year was rough for Andrew Benintendi ($2,900), he still hit 20 home runs. This year, on the whole, he's still struggling at the plate, but he has 10 homers and two triples. The lefty has also slugged .492 over the last three weeks. Dustin May, a righty, has had issues this year after returning from missing all of 2024. He has a 4.68 ERA and has allowed 1.31 homers per nine innings.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees at Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt): Jazz Chisholm ($5,000), Cody Bellinger, ($4,500), Austin Wells ($3,800)
Bassitt was just rocked for eight runs in two innings by the Red Sox, and the culprit is clear. For years Bassitt has been getting knocked around by lefty hitters. This year southpaws have hit .287 against him, right in line with the .285 average he's allowed to them since 2023. Thus, three lefties from the Yankees.
It's been business as usual for Chisholm, though that includes his issues staying on the field. He has 14 homers and 10 stolen bases, but in only 56 games. Chisholm has a .952 OPS over the last three weeks as well. Trent Grisham is banged up, so Bellinger is my lefty from the outfield. He's a better player, but he's been way better at home this year. Bellinger has 12 homers, three triples, and nine stolen bases on the year, and over the last two weeks he has an 1.013 OPS. Wells' finger is bothering him because, you know, he's a catcher. However, he's ready to play again, and you can roster him in your catcher spot. In his career, Wells has slugged .425 against righties and also .429 on the road.
Dodgers vs. White Sox (Aaron Civale): Freddie Freeman ($4,900), Andy Pages ($4,200), Tommy Edman ($3,600)
Civale's 2023, when he had a 3.46 ERA, has proven to be the anomaly. He had a 4.42 ERA the three seasons prior to that and a 4.43 ERA in the two seasons since then. This season he's down to 6.87 strikeouts per nine innings as well. Now he has to head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers, including this trio. Originally, I had Max Muncy in line for this stack, but then he suffered an apparent leg injury Wednesday night. The Dodgers may be optimistic, but it seems unlikely he can get back on the field as soon as Thursday.
Freeman has hit .307 with 10 homers and 21 doubles on the season. He's been cold as of late, but he has a .927 OPS versus righties on the year, so this is the kind of matchup that can help turn things around. Pages is a righty, but righties have hit .310 against Civale this season. Meanwhile, Pages has an .867 OPS versus his fellow righties this year. Edman ended up in this stack in lieu of Muncy. He's a switch-hitter who brings some power at second base, and he's slugged .495 at home this season.
Try our DraftKings MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
