MLB Picks: Peter Schoenke's 2024 MLB Win Totals To Target

MLB Picks: Peter Schoenke's 2024 MLB Win Totals To Target

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

 MLB Predictions: Peter Schoenke's MLB Win Totals 2024

Before each baseball season the last 23 years I've written a story at RotoWire with my best bets for the season-long win totals. I'm a big fan of the season win total bets ever since I started making them in person in Las Vegas back in the late 1990s. I've used several concepts of sabrermetrical analysis to try to find teams that appeared to be good historical bets.

Last year was my worst year writing the column. I picked the under on the Orioles and Diamondbacks only to see those bets fail spectacularly. The Orioles won over 100 games. I made a large bet they'd win less than 76.5. I bet Arizona would win fewer than 75.5 games. Instead, they made it to the World Series. So, I debated ending this column.

My track record lately has waned. And the early South Korea start didn't fit with my schedule. But after 23 years, I can't give up. And looking back at last year, I think my analysis on both teams still had merit. So while this is late, here is my take on the 2024 season from a wagering perspective.

Despite my recent struggles, I still have a decent track record, winning 59 of 110 (with one push) bets for a 53.6 percent win rate. My best bet each season is 19-17 (I had multiple biggest bets some years). I'm a little better on bets of $100 or more (I vary my bet size to emphasize how strongly I feel about the pick) where I'm 14-12 (53.8 percent). I'm most impressive when looking at the total amount bet, where I've been correct 56.1 percent of the time ($3,550 in winning bets, $2,775 in losers - not factoring in the vig*).

For this exercise, I'm using MLB odds from Fanduel Sportsbook on March 26.

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Here's my take on each team with more analysis below on those I selected as my "bets."

Team2024 O/UMy Pick
Arizona Diamondbacks84.5under
Atlanta Braves101.5under
Baltimore Orioles89.5over
Boston Red Sox77.5under
Chicago Cubs83.5over
Chicago White Sox61.5over
Cincinnati Reds81.5under
Cleveland Indians79.5over
Colorado Rockies59.5under
Detroit Tigers80.5under
Houston Astros93.5under
Kansas City Royals73.5under
Los Angeles Angels72.5under
Los Angeles Dodgers102.5under
Miami Marlins77.5under
Milwaukee Brewers77.5over
Minnesota Twins86.5over
New York Mets80.5under
New York Yankees90.5under
Oakland Athletics58.5under
Philadelphia Phillies89.5over
Pittsburgh Pirates75.5over
San Diego Padres83.5over
San Francisco Giants83.5under
Seattle Mariners87.5over
St. Louis Cardinals84.5under
Tampa Bay Rays85.5over
Texas Rangers88.5under
Toronto Blue Jays86.5over
Washington Nationals66.5over


When I look at an upcoming baseball season, there are eight methods I use to judge which teams might be a good bet: Three are statistical, four are observations I've had watching the bookies set season-long lines for MLB and other sports and lately I've thrown in a wild-card pick with no particular theoretical basis. Here's the breakdown on these theories and the teams I decided to actually wager on.

The Johnson Effect

The Johnson Effect argues that a team that scores more runs or allows fewer runs than most statistical formulas would suggest, is bound to regress the next season. For example, if one team scores more runs than sabermetric formulas such as Runs Created or OPS might suggest, then it will score less the next season. 

The theory works based on the fact that sometimes a team has more success than it should just based on pure luck. A bad bounce here, a fluke play here  - they can add up in one season and make a team look more powerful than it should be.

My favorite type of statistic for this analysis is a tool called the Pythagorean Theory. You probably learned the Pythagorean theory in trigonometry, but in baseball, it means that the ratio of a team's wins and losses will be similar to the relationship between the square of its runs scored and the square of its runs allowed. 

If the runs a team scores and gives up in any given season don't translate into the expected win total from the Pythagorean Theory, that means something odd took place that should turn around next season.

Using the Johnson Effect and applying the Pythagorean Theory, who looks like they'll rebound in 2024? Here are the top teams that should have had more or less wins based on their 2023 runs allowed/created than they actually tallied:

TeamPythagorean Wins
Miami Marlins+9
Baltimore Orioles+7
Kansas City Royals-8
San Diego Padres-10

I usually like to look for teams that have a differential of ten or more games. The Padres last year had a fluky season where they played worse than most of their leading indicators in part due to an unlucky bullpen (7th worst save percentage, but 11th in ERA). They may be worthy of a bet, but losing Juan Soto is a big loss. The sportsbooks have them improving 1.5 games. I'll pass.

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The Plexiglass Principle

This theory says that any team that improves dramatically in one season is likely to decline the next season.

What teams made such dramatic moves from 2022 to 2023?

Team Wins Improvement
Texas Rangers22
Cincinnati Reds20
Baltimore Orioles18
Washington Nationals16
Miami Marlins15
Pittsburgh Pirates14
Detroit Tigers12
Arizona Diamondbacks10

Since 1970, teams that have improved by 19 or more games declined by 7.35 wins the following season.  The Reds have young exciting talent but suffered a number of injuries this spring. The sportsbooks have them about even (Fanduel's Mar. 27 line has them at 81.5 wins). I'd expect at least some decline. I'll bet $50 that the Reds don't win 81.5 games. 

The Rangers, of course, won the World Series. Still, they only won 90 games. The Rangers also suffered some significant pitching losses for at least half a season. Jordan Montgomery left in free agency. Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom won't be ready for months – if at all. The team has some young talent in Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter which could offset those losses. Still, there's probably a World Series hangover. I'll bet $25 that the Rangers don't win 88.5 games.

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The Reverse Plexiglas Principle

When a team has consistently been a winner and then experiences a sudden drop-off, there is a strong likelihood that its win total will rebound. Or at least that's my theory.

Here are the teams that declined the most in 2023:

TeamWins Decline
New York Mets-26
St. Louis Cardinals-22
Chicago White Sox-20
New York Yankees-17
Cleveland Indians-16
Houston Astros-16

The Cardinals are the prime candidate of this group since the team's decline was unexpected and St. Louis spent a lot of money to give a floor to the rotation (Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn). However, the sportsbooks have priced in a 13.5-game improvement. That's too rich for my tastes.

The Bottom Feeder Bet

Which teams are projected to have the lowest win totals?

Team Win Total
Oakland Athletics58.5
Colorado Rockies59.5
Chicago White Sox61.5
Washington Nationals66.5

The theory here is that sportsbooks really need to set the totals low to entice bets on unexciting teams. However, in the past 21 years, teams that the sportsbooks peg to win less than 64 games cover 67% of the time (8 of 12). It's a small sample but makes some sense. 

Even so, it's just hard to make a case for either Colorado or Oakland. Both teams are just lost with few top prospects and no real plan (and Oakland even for a stadium). The White Sox may be the worst team in the league. Only the Nationals can I see improving, but their rotation may be the worst in the majors. I'll reluctantly pass. 

The Book's Biggest Movers

The next thing I look at is what teams the bookies think will have the biggest improvement or decline this season.

Team Win Movement
Kansas City Royals+17.5
St. Louis Cardinals+13.5
Baltimore Orioles-11.5
Tampa Bay Rays-14.5
Milwaukee Brewers-15.5

The Royals seem like an odd choice for the most improved team. Sure, Kansas City signed Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to shore up the rotation. Cole Ragans could turn into an ace if he can stay healthy. Bobby Witt was signed to a mega extension, but he was already on the team last year. None of those moves say to me they're the most improved team in baseball. I'll bet $100 the Royals don't win 73.5 games.

The Rays amazingly slightly underperformed last season, at least to their 100 Pythagorean wins, while still becoming a playoff team. They have the usual losses (Tyler Glasnow to a trade, Wander Franco to off-field issues the biggest from start of last season) but have top prospects (Junior Caminero) and find pitchers to improve from other team's underperformers (Aaron Civale and Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot). A bet on the Rays over just seems worthwhile as the sportsbooks  (and everyone) always underestimates them. I'll bet $100 the Rays win more than 84.5 games.

The Book's Non Movers

What teams do the sportsbooks see standings still?

TeamWin Movement
Cleveland Indians+3.5
Houston Astros+3.5
Los Angeles Dodgers+3.5
Detroit Tigers+2.5
San Diego Padres+1.5
Colorado Rockies+0.5
Cincinnati Reds+0.5
Chicago Cubs+0.5
Minnesota Twins+0.5
Chicago White Sox-0.5
Los Angeles Angels-0.5
Pittsburgh Pirates-0.5
Boston Red Sox-0.5
Arizona Diamondbacks-0.5
Seattle Mariners-0.5
Philadelphia Phillies-0.5
Texas Rangers-1.5
Toronto Blue Jays-2.5
Atlanta Braves-2.5

The first thing that stands out is how many teams the sportsbooks will largely be unchanged from last season. The sportsbooks expect 19 teams to finish within 3.5 games of their 2023 win total. Compare that to 16 teams in 2023, 9 teams in 2022 and 7 teams in 2021 that the sportsbooks expected to be within 3.5 games of the prior year.

The two that stand out among this group are the Cubs and Red Sox. The Cubs have been at least signing free agents (Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga), paid big bucks to bring in perhaps the best manager in baseball (Craig Counsell) and are in a weak division. It seems like they'd be better. Meanwhile the Red Sox appear to be going the other direction with Lucas Giolito as their only big move of note – and he's out for the season after Tommy John surgery. I'll take $25 on the Cubs to win more than 83.5 games, and I'll take $25 for the Red Sox to win less than 77.5 games.

Wild Card

I've occasionally chosen a bet for this article that doesn't fit any statistical theory but rather is one trend I've followed. This year that theory would be on principle you should take the under on any team to win 100 games. But then the Dodgers have won over 100 in five of the last six full seasons. So maybe I'll pass.

MLB Win Total Best Bets for 2024 Recap

TeamBetTheory
Tampa Bay Rays$100 over 84.5 winsBook Non-Mover
Texas Rangers$25 under 88.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
Cincinnati Reds$50 under 81.5 winsPlexiglas Principle 
Kansas City Royals$100 under 73.5 gamesBook Mover
Chicago Cubs$25 over 83.5 gamesBook Non-Mover
Boston Red Sox$25 under 77.5 gamesBook Non-Mover

*One note: My bets/track record doesn't account for the variations in extra juice you need to pay. Most lines are -110, meaning the sportsbook takes about five percent on each bet. The "vig" tends to be higher on these bets than for single games. Sometimes the vig can vary widely, such as when the 2016 Rangers' under of 83.5 wins was at -140 (the under was +110). It's another method for the bookmakers to alter how the money is coming in on each side so it gets to their comfort level. Or it's a way to change the odds without moving the win total.

If you are making a lot of bets, this is a serious factor in the math. But I don't bother to take that into account because I'm more focused on the overall wins number for a team perspective. Plus, I forgot to keep track of the vig in the early years.

I vary the dollar amounts below as a way to show how confident I am in the bet (the $300 bet on the 2004 Royals is my all-time high), so there are some holes in the math if you added in all the varying vigs.

And why should you care what I think? I've made money 12 of the last 22 years (with one push). Here's the breakdown: 

YEARW/L         TEAM                 BET             THEORY
2023LossBaltimore Orioles$200 under 76.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2023LossArizona Diamondbacks$50 under 75.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2023WonTampa Bay Rays$25 over 89.5 winsReverse Plexiglas 
2023LossToronto Blue Jays$25 over 91.5 winsBook Non-Mover
2022WonOakland$25 under on 69.5 winsWild Card
2022LostTampa Bay$100 over on 89.5 winsBook Mover
2022LostBaltimore$25 under on 61.5 winsBottom Feeder
2022WonBoston$25 under on 85.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2022LostSeattle$25 under on 83.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2021LostChicago White Sox$50 under on 90.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2021LostWashington Nationals$25 over on 84.5 winsReverse Plexiglas Principle
2021WonHouston Astros$25 over on 87.5 winsReverse Plexiglas Principle
2021LostDetroit Tigers$100 under on 68.5 winsBottom Feeder
2021WonTexas Rangers$25 under on 66.5 gamesBottom Feeder
2021LostToronto Blue Jays$25 under on 86.5 gamesBook Non-Mover
2021LostMinnesota Twins$50 over on 88.5 winsBook Mover
2021WonTampa Bay Rays$50 over on 85.5 winsBook Mover
2021LostLost Angeles Dodgers$25 under on 102.5 winsWild Card
2020LostChicago White Sox $25 on less than 31.5 games Book Mover
 2020 Won New York Yankees $25 on less than 37.5 games Wild Card
 2020 Lost Los Angeles Dodgers $25 on less than 37.5 games Wild Card
2020 Won Tampa Bay Rays $50 on more than 33.5 games Wild Card
2019WonKansas City Royals$50 on less than 69.5 winsBook Mover
2019LostSan Francisco Giants$50 on less than 73 wins Book Non Mover
2019LostTexas Rangers$25 on less than 70 gamesBook Non Mover
2019WonBaltimore Orioles$50 on less than 58.5 winsBottom Feeder
2019WonWashington Nationals$25 more than 88.5 gamesReverse Plexiglas Principle
2018WonArizona Diamondbacks $100 to win fewer than 85 games Plexiglas Principle 
2018WonDetroit Tigers $50 on less than 66.5 wins Book's Non Movers 
2018WonSan Diego Padres $25 on less than 72.5 games Johnson Effect 
2017WonTampa Bay Rays$50 win more than 78.5 gamesJohnson Effect
2017LostPittsburgh Pirates$100 win more than 82 gamesReverse Plexiglas
2017LostLos Angeles Angels$50 on less than 79 winsBook's Non Movers
2017LostTexas Rangers$25 on win more than 84.5 gamesBook's Biggest Movers
2017LostBaltimore Orioles$50 win more than 80 gamesWild Card
2016LostChicago Cubs$25 win less than 93.5 gamesPlexiglas Principle
2016LostMilwaukee Brewers$50 win less than 70 gamesBottom Feeder Bet
2016LostNew York Yankees$25 win over than 85 gamesWild Card
2015LostHouston Astros$25 win less than 75.5 gamesPlexiglas Principle
2015WonLos Angels Angels$25 win less than 88.5 gamesPlexiglas Principle
2015WonTexas Rangers$25 win over than 76.5 gamesReverse Plexiglas Principle
2015LostBoston Red Sox$25 win over than 86.5 gamesReverse Plexiglas Principle
2015LostBaltimore Orioles$75 win over than 82.5 gamesBook's Biggest Movers
2015WonCincinnati Reds$25 win less than 77.5 gamesBook's Non Movers
2015WonTampa Bay Rays$50 win more than 78.5 gamesBook's Non Movers
2015WonOakland A's$100 win more than 81.5 gamesBilly Beane Theory
2014LostCleveland Indians$25 win less than 82 gamesPlexiglas Principle
2014WonHouston Astros$25 more than 62.5 gamesBottom Feeder
2014WonPhiladelphia Phillies$50 under on 74.5 gamesBook Non Mover
2014WonOakland A's$25 over on 86.5 gamesBilly Beane Theory
2014LostTampa Bay Rays$100 over on 89 gamesBilly Beane Theory
2013WonToronto Blue Jays$50 under on 89 gamesBook Mover
2013WonOakland A's$25 over on 84.5 gamesBilly Beane Theory
2013WonTampa Bay Rays$50 over on 86.5 gamesBilly Beane Theory
2013LostKansas City Royals$50 under on 78.5 gamesBilly Beane Theory
2013WonBaltimore Orioles$25 over on 78.5 gamesWildcard
2012WonArizona Diamondbacks$200 under on 86 gamesPlexiglas Principle
2012LostMinnesota Twins$100 over on 72.5 gamesReverse Plexiglas Principle
2011LostKansas City$100 under on 68 gamesBook Non Mover
2011WonHouston Astros$50 under on 72 gamesJohnson Effect
2011WonMilwaukee Brewers$25 over on 86.5 gamesBook Mover
2011LostLos Angeles Angels$50 under on 82.5 gamesWild Card
2010LostHouston Astros$150 under on 75.5 gamesJohnson Effect & Book Non Mover
2010WonMinnesota Twins$100 over on 82.5 gamesWildcard
2010WonWashington Nationals$50 under on 72 gamesBook Mover
2009LostLos Angeles Angels$50 under on 88.5 winsJohnson Effect & Plexiglas Principle
2009WonDetroit Tigers$50 over on 81.5 winsReverse Plexiglas
2009LostBaltimore Orioles$50 over on 72.5 winsBottom Feeder
2009LostKansas City Royals$25 over on 76.5 winsBook Non Mover
2009LostPhiladelphia Phillies$50 under on 88.5 winsBook Non Mover
2009LostOakland A's$25 over on 82.5 winsBilly Beane Theory
2008WonSeattle Mariners$200 under on 84 winsJohnson Effect
2008LostChicago Cubs$50 under on 87.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2008WonOakland A's$50 over on 73.5 winsReverse Plexiglas Principle
2008PushSan Francisco$50 under on 72 winsBook Non Mover
2007WonCleveland Indians$50 over on 85.5 winsJohnson Effect
2007LostChicago Cubs$50 under on 83.5 winsBook Mover
2007LostOakland A's$50 over on 85.5 winsBook Mover
2007LostMinnesota Twins$100 over on 84 winsBook Mover
2007WonArizona Diamondbacks$100 over on 78.5 winsBook Non Mover
2006WonChicago White Sox$100 under on 92 winsJohnson Effect & Plexiglas Principle
2006LostArizona Diamondbacks$25 under on 73 winsJohnson Effect & Plexiglas Principle
2006LostTampa Bay Devil Rays$100 over on 68 winsBottom Feeder
2006LostMilwaukee Brewers$50 over on 81 winsBook Non Mover
2006WonMinnesota Twins$50 over on 83 winsBook Non Mover
2005WonNew York Yankees$150 under on 102 winsJohnson Effect
2005WonMilwaukee Brewers$50 over on 69.5 winsBottom Feeder
2005WonSan Diego Padres$25 under on 86.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2005LostMinnesota Twins$25 over on 89.5 winsBook Non Mover
2004WonKansas City Royals$300 under on 81 winsPlexiglas Principle
2004WonHouston Astros$50 over on 91 winsJohnson Effect
2004LostDetroit Tigers$100 under on 66.5 winsBook Mover
2004WonSan Francisco Giants$50 over on 85 winsBook Mover
2004WonFlorida Marlins$50 over on 83 winsBook Mover
2003WonAnaheim Angels$100 under on 91 winsPlexiglas Principle
2003WonOakland A's$50 over on 93.5 winsBook Mover
2003WonNew York Mets$50 under on 86 winsBook Mover
2003WonToronto Blue Jays$50 over on 79 winsBook Non Mover
2003WonBoston Red Sox$50 over on 91 winsJohnson Effect
2002WonOakland A's$200 over on 90.5 winsBook Mover
2002WonPhiladelphia Phillies$100 under on 82.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2002WonPittsburgh Pirates$50 over on 68 winsBottom Feeder
2002LostSeattle Mariners$50 over on 94 winsReverse Plexiglas Principle
2002LostColorado Rockies$50 over on 77 winsJohnson Effect
2002LostNew York Yankees$50 under on 99 winsReverse Bottom Feeder
2001LostSt. Louis Cardinals$100 under on 89.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2001WonChicago White Sox$100 under on 88 winsPlexiglas Principle
2001WonHouston Astros$100 over on 82.5 winsJohnson Effect & Plexiglas Principle
2001WonPhiladelphia Phillies$25 over on 74.5 winsBottom Feeder & Johnson Effect
2001WonMinnesota Twins$25 over on 73 wins Bottom Feeder
2000WonArizona Diamondbacks$100 under on 93 winsPlexiglas Principle
2000WonMinnesota Twins$100 over on 64 winsBottom Feeder

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Peter Schoenke
Peter Schoenke is the president and co-founder of RotoWire.com. He's been elected to the hall of fame for both the Fantasy Sports Trade Association and Fantasy Sports Writers Association and also won the Best Fantasy Baseball Article on the Internet in 2005 from the FSWA. He roots for for the Minnesota Twins, Vikings and T-Wolves.
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