This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: June 4 Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 15-14, -.14 Units
The weather is heating up big time, will offense follow? I am going to answer in the affirmative, lets make some money!
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Twins at Athletics: Best Betting Insights and Pitcher Analysis
The Athletic Baseball Club Currently Playing Home Games in Sacramento does not have an announced starting pitcher as of this writing. The Rotowire Starting Pitcher Grid (which everyone should use) has Jeffrey Springs lined up to start, and it's been a rough go for the former Ray this season.
Springs has a 4.72 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, mostly thanks to a seemingly lost ability to strike guys out. He has an 18.3% K% and 10.5% SwStr%, both career lows and way off his 25.7% and 13.2% respective career marks. He missed most of 2022 and 2023 thanks to TJ surgery, and his velo has yet to return. His fastball sat in the 92-93 range before, and averages just 90.3 now.
Springs has at least given the A's some innings for the most part, though that was not the case in his last start as he walked 6 of the 15 Blue Jays he faced and yielded 6 runs in just 2 innings. In the 5 starts prior to that, he lasted at least 6.0 innings (and he made it through 5 in the other start).
The A's bullpen is not terribly overworked. Closer Mason Miller hasn't pitched since Saturday, and Justin Sterner has only made one appearance since Friday. So if they get a lead somehow, they have their high leverage guys available. The A's problem lately is that they rarely find themselves in front, or even close.
We can't attack Springs via props since his role tonight is unclear. He has started in every appearance so far, but perhaps the A's will use an opener tonight. The staff in general is in flux as Springs, JP Sears and Luis Severino are the only current healthy full-run starters. We can play this via Twins' batters, however.
Byron Buxton leads off, and as is generally the case, he's excellent when healthy. He's popped 10 homers, stolen 10 bags and has a .274 average and .350 wOBA on the season. Further, he's riding a 6-game hit streak, the last 4 of which were 2-hit games. Willi Castro mashed 2 homers last night, and is riding a bit of a heater with a .324 average and .676 SLG in the past 2 weeks.
The A's, for their part, have hit pretty well lately as their 122 wOBA over the past 2 weeks ranks them 3rd in MLB. The Twins with try to tamp down the Swinging A's with Zebby Matthews. The sometime Fantasy darling, thanks to his always-excellent minor league K/BB ratios, had a rough first 2 starts in his return to the majors this year. He lasted just 7 innings total, yielding 6 runs on 10 hits. He then yielded 4 runs in the 1st inning last Friday before settling in and shutting out the Mariners for the next 6 innings.
His 33.9% K% over his 14 innings is absolutely excellent. I'm just not sure how long he lasts in this game in the early evening heat in the A's launching pad of a stadium. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli often pulls his starting pitchers on the early side, especially young arms like Zebby. Something, something….3rd time through the order…..something. Aces Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez only lasted 5 innings each in the 1st two games of the series, though Lopez was partly due to an injury.
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MLB Best Bets for Twins vs A's
- Zebby Matthews Under 15.5 Outs (-145 DraftKings)
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits (+170 DraftKings)
- Willi Castro Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 DraftKings)
- 3-Leg Same-Game Parlay: +800
