Buying vs. Selling at the MLB Trade Deadline: What History and Analytics Say

With roughly six weeks remaining until the July 31 MLB trade deadline, clubs are beginning to group together as either buys or sellers. It's possible trade season has already peaked with last weekend's blockbuster deal that sent Rafael Devers from Boston to the Giants, but the week leading up to the deadline is never anything less than actioned-pack. 

Is it better, though, to be a buyer or a seller? RotoWire's analysts have scoured MLB.com to gather all trade deadline deals from last season's 7-day week leading up to the July 30, 2024 deadline. Based on those 2024 results, we set out to determine if it was better in the short-term to be a buyer or a seller. 

Using WAR as the determining factor (courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com), we compiled the data for full-time players from the initial date of trade until the present. Prospects don't come with as exact a figure, so we've awarded the following WAR to "hypothesize" their impact: 

• Top 15 Prospect: 1.0 WAR
• 16-30th Prospect: 0.5 WAR
• Outside Top 30 Prospect: -0.5 WAR

Buyers were determined as teams within no less than 5 games of a playoff spot by time of the trade deadline, with every other team being considered a Seller. There are always exceptions to those guidelines -- remember the Brewers trading Josh Hader back in 2022 despite a three-game lead for first place in the NL Central? -- but that rubric holds up as a general guideline. 

Trades of Note

Detroit trade Jack Flaherty to Dodgers for prospects
Baltimore sent Stowers & Norby to Miami for Trevor Rogers
Tommy Edman & Michael Kopech dealt to Dodgers in 3-team deal
Tampa traded Amed Rosario to Dodgers for Michael Flynn
Jazz Chisholm to Yankees from Miami for prospects
Randy Arozarena traded to Seattle from Tampa for prospects

Key Trade Candidates and Their Potential Market Value

Looking back at just 2024 provides an admittedly small sample size, but one most relevant to analysis of this year's pre-deadline moves. The raw numbers from last season show positive WAR results for Buyers, a sign that contenders in need of a tangible impact have some reason for optimism. A handful of players stand out in the league as likely trade candidates:

• The Brewers have historically been willing to capitalize on name value, and despite a passable record at this stage in the season, the team doesn't quite look convincing as a true contender. Moving Freddy Peralta would be a bold move, but controllable pitching is always a need for teams, and his $8 million current salary and $8 million club option for 2026 will be enticing to any suitors. 
• Cedric Mullins will turn 31 in October and isn't under contract with Baltimore beyond this season, making him a clear acquisition target for teams with a void at central field. 
• If the following weeks result in Atlanta falling further away from a Wild Card spot, trading Marcell Ozuna will begin to look increasingly obvious. The 34-year-old is one of just a handful of power hitters who should be on the market, which will inflate his value as long as teams aren't concerned about the hip issue he's recently played through. 
• Over his last 31 innings, Jake Bird has flown under-the-radar with 1.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 41:8 K:BB, collecting one win and seven holds. He's under club control for the foreseeable future, and the Rockies are one of the clearest Sellers in the league at this point. 
• Sandy Alcantara hasn't looked himself since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he's got a month left to build momentum and regain a strong trade market -- which would make him the most enticing available pitcher. Alternatively, there's a world where the Marlins float Edward Cabrera, even if he'd provide less of a return in a tentative deal. Either way, Miami figures to benefit from the limited supply of pitchers expected at the deadline. 
• Yes, Josh Naylor was traded to the Diamondbacks just six months ago, but he's on an expiring contract and arguably performing better than he did fresh after earning his first All-Star team nod. Arizona is still in striking distance of a playoff berth, but that may not be enough to motivate keeping an impending free agent rather than turning around for future value. 

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