Tuesday's 15-game MLB slate has an usual 3:40 PM Eastern start time. The players below are all primed for strong performances in their respective matchups, making them the day's top value plays.
Sonny Gray, NYY vs. NYM ($45): Gray has allowed two earned runs over six innings in each of his first two starts with the Yankees, but he'll be looking to take another step forward in his home debut as he searches for his first win in pinstripes against the crosstown rival Mets. Considering he's coming off eight consecutive quality starts and has a 1.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over that stretch, Gray's likely to come out on top facing a Mets lineup that ranks outside the top 15 against right-handed pitching in both runs scored and OBP. Throw in the expected gains from his lofty 23.5 percent strikeout rate and it's easy to justify spending $45 on Gray given that six guys are priced above that.
Zach Davies, MIL vs. PIT ($36): This is a good buy-low opportunity on Davies, whose rough outing last time out was mostly the result of bad luck as 10 of his season-worst 11 hits allowed were singles. He couldn't ask for a better bounce-back opportunity than this date with a Pirates team that ranks 29th with a .702 OPS against righties. Davies doesn't strike out many batters, but his 48.4 percent ground ball rate limits hard contact, allowing him to work deep into games. He had gone at least seven innings in four consecutive starts prior to last Thursday's poor effort against Minnesota, and will be in the mix for his 14th win with what should be yet another long and effective start here.
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Yasmani Grandal, LAD vs. CWS ($14): The switch-hitting Grandal has found far more success from the left side, launching 66 of his 73 homers over the past four season against right-handed pitching. Luckily for him, the White Sox will be sending subpar righty Miguel Gonzalez to the mound for this one. Gonzalez's .351 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters suggest he'll struggle against this lefty-laden Dodgers lineup and Grandal should be heavily involved in the offense for a fraction of what some teammates cost.
Justin Smoak, TOR vs. TB ($21): The switch-hitting Smoak has smoked left-handed pitching, producing a .491 wOBA in 104 plate appearances from the right side. His numbers are even more impressive at Rogers Centre, where Smoak has produced a .419/.490/.837 line and .541 wOBA while batting right-handed. Don't expect Rays starter Blake Snell to slow him down, as Snell's .352 wOBA allowed to righties has been the primary factor behind his inability to grab a single victory in 15 starts.
DJ LeMahieu, COL vs. ATL ($19): LeMahieu's a can't-miss value at $19 for this home matchup against a lefty. He has a massive .422 wOBA facing southpaws in general, and that number climbs to .464 at Coors Field. Braves rookie Sean Newcomb is also weaker than the typical pitcher from his side, entering play with a 6.55 ERA and 25 walks in 34.2 innings over his past seven starts.
Mike Moustakas, KC at OAK ($19): Athletics starter Chris Smith has been prone to giving up the long ball, with a 2.38 HR/9 in 34 innings. That's music to Moustakas' ears, as the powerful third baseman has already launched 34 home runs, including 26 against righties.
Trevor Story, COL vs. ATL ($15): Story's another right-handed bat in Colorado's lineup that has excelled against southpaws, producing a .399 wOBA in that split. His home ballpark's league-leading 1.32 park factor has this whole lineup primed for success given Newcomb's aforementioned struggles, and Story is one of its most affordable members at $15.
Alex Presley, DET at TEX ($9): Presley costs just $2 above the minimum after a recent DL stint, making him a terrific bargain in this matchup with subpar right-hander A.J. Griffin. Griffin comes in with an 8.64 ERA at home while Presley owns a solid .357 wOBA against righties. Globe Life Park in Arlington's fifth-ranked 1.12 park factor should further help Presley in what was already a highly favorable situation.
Nelson Cruz, SEA vs. BAL ($22): Cruz has long been one of the league's top producers against southpaws, compiling a .379 wOBA in that split this year after three consecutive seasons over .400. That success should continue against Wade Miley, who has surrendered a robust .366 wOBA to the 470 right-handed hitters he's faced this season. Cruz's elite power numbers give him unmatched upside here.
George Springer, HOU at ARI ($22): Springer has pummeled lefties to the tune of a .449 wOBA overall and that number improves to .528 outside Minute Maid Park's pitcher-friendly confines. Chase Field's second-ranked 1.20 park factor represent a 0.37 jump over Houston's 30th-ranked venue, so Springer will have a nearly ideal hitting environment against Arizona rookie Anthony Banda. Banda has struggled against batters far less dangerous that Springer, posting a 6.52 home ERA.