FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

While we have eight games for this Sunday slate, we're going to key in on the six-game nightcap. That's where the big prize pools are at and that's what we're aiming for. Without further ado, let's get into it with so much to talk about. 

Slate Overview 

MIA vs. CHI: This is one of the riskiest games of the day, as we're looking at Miami entering this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite in a total of 212. That's one of the lowest totals of the day and it's no surprise when you see the slow pace of these teams.  

PHI vs. TOR: This is the highlight game of the day. These are two teams vying for a top spot in the East, which is clear when you see the 2.5-point spread in favor of Philly. The 210-point total shows where these teams earn their money, as they rank among the best defensive teams in the NBA.  

WSH vs. LAC: After two defensive struggles, we should have a ton of points here. Not only is Washington allowing over 120 points per game, both of these clubs also sit Top-7 in pace. That's why we're looking at a projected 235-point total with the Clippers entering as a heavy favorite.  

DAL vs. SAC: While Dallas is playing the second half of a back-to-back set, that was a 46-point blowout in which they got to rest their starters. That dominating win shows why the Mavs enter as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 217. 

POR vs. OKC: This is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the day, with a total at 224. We also have a 3.5-point spread in favor of Portland which should garner big minutes from all of the big-name players.  

LAL vs. MIN: While we don't have a spread yet for this game, this should be a lopsided one in favor of the Lakers. Los Angeles have gone 20-2 since the opener and have been absolutely obliterating their opponents of late. With that said, look for Los Angeles to be about a 10-point favorite with a total in the 220-range.  

Positional Breakdown 

PG: Luka Doncic is the highest priced player on this slate just shy of $12,000. Players like Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons and Kyle Lowry follow him up in the $8,000-range while Tomas Satoransky, Chris Paul and Jeff Teague make up the mid-tier. If you're looking for someone cheap, pivot to Kris Dunn, Kendrick Nunn or Ish Smith.  

SG: Bradley Beal and Jimmy Butler are the cream of the crop at shooting guard. Zach LaVine, Buddy Hield and Fred VanVleet are right behind, sitting between $8,000 and $8,200. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lou Williams and C.J. McCollum make up the mid-tier while there's very little in terms of value at this position.  

SF: LeBron James is the king here at $10,800, with Pascal Siakam and Paul George sitting right around $9,000. Tobias Harris is a good pick at $8,100 if Embiid sits out while Harrison Barnes, Jarrett Culver and Kent Bazemore make for good value plays.  

PF: Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard are the stars at power forward. After that, it's guys like Bam Adebayo, Kristaps PorzingisRichaun Holmes and Al Horford between $7,400 and $8,000. The middle-tier is interesting too, filled out by Davis Bertans, Nemanja Bjelica, Robert Covington and Rui Hachimura.  

C: Karl-Anthony Towns is the only healthy center above $8,200, as Montrezl Harrell is the second-highest. After that, Wendell Carter and Steven Adams sit in the $7,000's while Marc Gasol, Moritz Wagner and Dwight Powell sit in the $5,000's.  

Injuries to Monitor 

Goran Dragic/Justise Winslow (MIA): Dragic and Winslow have both been ruled out of this game. Dragic is dealing with a groin issue while Winslow has a bad back. In the absence of these two, look for Jimmy Butler to handle more and for Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson to get more playing time.  

Bam Adebayo (MIA): Adebayo notched a career-high 24 points in the last game, but comes into this matchup questionable with a groin issue. If he sits, look for Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard to pick up the most fantasy value.  

Joel Embiid/Josh Richardson (PHI): Both of these guys are expected to miss this game, opening up usage for Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Al Horford. Look for Matisse ThybulleFurkan Korkmaz and Kyle O'Quinn to also play more as cheap options.  

Thomas Bryant (WSH): Bryant is out for the next three weeks because of a foot issue, as Moritz Wagner and Davis Bertans have been superb in his absence.   

Isaiah Thomas (WSH): Thomas has already been ruled out because of a calf problem, so look for Ish Smith to get his third-straight start.  

Marvin Bagley/De'Aaron Fox (SAC): These guys remain out with long-term injuries. Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes have been much better without them while Cory Joseph and Bogdan Bogdanovic have taken on a lot more minutes.  

Rodney Hood (POR): Hood just tore his Achilles on Friday and we expect Kent Bazemore to start in his absence.  

Andrew Wiggins (MIN): Wiggins missed the last game because of a thumb issue. If he sits again here, look for Jeff Teague to start after collecting 32 points, five rebounds and nine assists in his last start on Friday.  

Elite Players 

Luka Doncic vs. Karl-Anthony Towns

These are the two highest-priced players on the slate and it's a pretty easy choice. While Doncic is $700 more, I'd argue he should be $1,500 more than Towns. The reason for that is because he's averaging 4.2 more FD points and faces a far better matchup. Towns has to face a Top-3 defense in the Lakers as a significant underdog while Doncic squares off with a 22nd-ranked Kings' defense as a favorite.   

Jimmy Butler vs. Bradley Beal

These two guys are priced within $300 of each other at shooting guard and this is a debate you're surely going to have. While Beal is more expensive, we prefer Butler. The matchups are a huge reason why, as Beal has to face an elite Clippers' defense while Butler gets a revenge game against a below-average Bulls defense. Not to mention, Butler has recorded at least 52 FanDuel points in three-straight, flirting with triple-double averages over that span.  

LeBron James vs. Anthony Davis

Is there really a right answer? These two have both been brilliant this season and it's no surprise they're both sitting at $10,800. We're going to go ahead and go with Davis, since he's been slightly better recently. In fact, Davis has at least 47 FD points in nine of his last 10 games while averaging 55 fantasy points per game in that span.  

Expected Chalk 

Al Horford, PHI ($7,600): Horford should take on a much bigger workload in the absence of Embiid, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the board.  

Jeff Teague, MIN ($5,900): Teague just registered the best game of his season on Friday and will be highly-owned if he starts for Wiggins again.  

Ish Smith, WSH ($4,600): With Thomas sitting out again, look for Smith to be highly owned in his absence.  

Jimmy Butler, MIA ($9,300): In the last three games without Dragic, Butler is averaging over 50 FanDuel points per game. People surely notice that and will want to play him against his former team.  

Key Values 

Kendrick Nunn, MIA ($5,100) 

Many people will pivot to Butler in the absence of Dragic and rightfully so. Nunn has been just as valuable and offers much better value. We're talking about a guy who's reached at least 25 FD points in all but a handful of games this season and should garner more ball-handling duties in the absence of Dragic. That's all we can hope for from a player priced this affordably.  

Kris Dunn, CHI ($5,000) 

Dunn has been starting recently and it's done wonders for his fantasy value. Not only has he scored at least 20 FanDuel points in all four starts he's made, Dunn is also averaging 23 FD points per game in that span while playing 28 minutes a game. Most of that value has come through steals and it's scary to think how good he could be if he can knock down some shots.  

Kent Bazemore, POR ($3,800) 

With Rodney Hood tearing his Achilles on Friday, look for Bazemore to start here. That's about 30 minutes and 10 shots out of the lineup and Bazemore should be taking on most of that workload. That's huge for a guy who usually provides value through hustle statistics and that makes him a great value at $3,800 if he sees the 30 minutes we project.  

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Joel Bartilotta plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: Joelbartilotta Yahoo: Joelbartilotta.
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Joel Bartilotta
Joel has 20 years of Fantasy experience, and can recall riding a young Daunte Culpepper to a championship in the 2003-04 season in his inaugural fantasy year. He covers NBA, NFL, daily fantasy, EPL, and MLB for RotoWire.
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