This is the first of our two Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdowns for Week 4, with the other being the Broncos vs. the Bengals.
The season hasn't gone as either team hoped it would, but that should make this matchup only more urgent for the winless duo of the Dolphins and Jets, who face off in Miami on Monday. The over/under is at 44.5 with the Dolphins 2.5-point home favorites.
QUARTERBACK
Tua Tagovailoa ($9600 DK, $10800 FD) and Justin Fields ($10200 DK, $11000 FD) are both difficult fades here, not because either one is reliable at all but because neither is terribly expensive and both defenses in this game are bad. Both quarterbacks have shown the ability to struggle even against bad defenses, but their high points can be quite high, especially in Fields' case.
With Tagovailoa the production would almost exclusively occur through the air, but in Fields' case keep in mind that his rushing upside might exist at least slightly at the expense of other Jets runners, and Fields has less pairing logic outside of Garrett Wilson. Some quarterbacks need their pass catchers to produce to come through in fantasy football, but Fields isn't one of them.
RUNNING BACK
De'Von Achane ($11800 DK, $13600 FD) is just expensive enough that he's a justifiable fade, though still a perilous one. It's been a common story for the Dolphins to end up run dependent due to the struggles of Tagovailoa, and when you pair Achane's usual workload volume with his big-play ability you have a uniquely explosive formula. If Achane falls short it would be in combination due to his price and perhaps Ollie Gordon ($3000 DK, $5400 FD) poaching touchdown production. Gordon is a solid player and the Dolphins should show more concern with the longevity of Achane, so Gordon's presence in the box score could be considerable if he continues to hold off Jaylen Wright.
Breece Hall ($8000 DK, $9800 FD) is probably not the most advised fade against a Miami run defense that isn't any better than average. The Jets had to abandon the run against the Bills in Week 2 and in Week 3 they ran into Vita Vea, but against the Dolphins there's no good reason for the Jets to go away from Hall. It would be ill-advised of the Jets to feed Braelon Allen ($7000 DK, $5800 FD) at the expense of Hall or even Isaiah Davis ($200 DK, $1600 FD), but one of these teams probably has to lose and the Jets are free to pursue their own demise.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Garrett Wilson ($10600 DK, $12000 FD) is an exceedingly difficult player to fade on this sketchy one-game slate. No matter how the game goes for the Jets, Wilson is almost guaranteed to see heavy usage. The ball can hardly go anywhere else. Josh Reynolds ($3400 DK, $3800 FD) looks like a good bargain all the same – he should function as the clear WR2, while the rookie Arian Smith ($2000 DK, $1400 FD) is probably a good punt play as the potential WR3. Tyler Johnson ($2400 DK, $3400 FD) had been Reynolds' injury replacement but should give way here. Mason Taylor ($2800 DK, $2600 FD) is also a tempting bargain as he faces his father's former NFL team.
Tyreek Hill ($11000 DK, $12600 FD) will play despite missing one practice this week for personal reasons. Hill's abilities need no explanation, but it's fair to worry about his focus and commitment level with so much off-field distraction and on-field frustration. Jaylen Waddle ($10000 DK, $8600 FD) would seemingly be a great candidate to pick up any slack that Hill leaves on the field, and particularly if the Jets shadow Hill with Sauce Gardner. Malik Washington ($3600 DK, $4600 FD) has been the clear WR3 for Miami to this point and has seen usage forced in his direction, but just as was the case his rookie year, Washington has proven a better returner than receiver. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine probably wishes he hadn't signed with Miami.
It will be interesting to see how much tight end Darren Waller ($4000 DK, $4800 FD) might contribute in his first active game with Miami – Waller's profound durability troubles remain an ongoing concern for the indefinite future despite news of his debut. Julian Hill ($1200 DK, $1200 FD) is mostly a blocker otherwise and Tanner Conner has always underwhelmed as a pass-catching specialist.
KICKER
The kicker options in this game aren't terribly exciting, both from an abilities standpoint and with respect to the offenses they kick for, but Nick Folk ($5000 DK, $7200 FD) remains a very accurate kicker even at 40 years old, while Riley Patterson ($5400 DK, $6800 FD) is at least mostly accurate from short range.
Folk is the better kicker almost certainly – Patterson is merely subbing for the injured Jason Sanders. Folk can still strike from beyond 50 yards with some amount of competence, but range has always been the limitation with Patterson, who is just four for nine on career attempts beyond 50 yards.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Both defenses are bad, but so are the offenses. While projecting their outcomes is a turbulent exercise, there probably exists some possibility of either or both defenses doing well from a fantasy perspective, if only because the offenses are seemingly capable of failing without the influence of anything else.
The Jets ($4400 DK, $7600 FD) have a trivial advantage in secondary talent due to the presence of Sauce Gardner, but their run defense is a mess and Aaron Glenn hasn't been able to get the group to play cohesively yet. They need to rattle Tagovailoa, because the Jets can't expect to shut down Achane and they can't expect their non-Gardner corners to cover a receiver like Hill or Waddle.
The Dolphins ($4600 DK, $6400 FD) might have one of the worst secondaries of all time and their run defense is not good, but at least they face a Jets defense with a comical void of viable pass catchers outside of Wilson. Meanwhile, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are getting closer to full health and when they do they'll be one of the strongest edge-rushing duos in the NFL. If the Miami pass rush wrecks some drives in this game it shouldn't be taken for surprising.
