Drafting exciting rookies and breakout sophomores is part of the fantasy football fun. But for every rising star, there's another young player who gets over-drafted based on hype, team investment, or one hot month. These are the traps that can quietly derail your roster.
This breakdown focuses on rookies and second-year players most likely to bust in 2025 fantasy leagues. Some are stepping into crowded depth charts, while others flashed briefly before fading down the stretch. Fantasy managers looking to avoid busts while mining for fantasy football sleepers need to recognize when talent and situation don't align.
Before you get too excited about a shiny new prospect, take a look at which names are likely to underperform based on usage trends, offensive identity and coaching intent.
Quarterback Bust
Bo Nix – Denver Broncos
Nix was a fantasy savior down the stretch in 2024, posting 29 passing touchdowns and rushing for 430 yards and four scores. But that production came in a very specific context: the Broncos had no reliable run game and leaned heavily on Nix to carry the offense.
That's changed.
Denver added J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey behind a strong offensive line, signaling a clear shift toward run-first football. With the defense also improving, Nix won't need to play hero ball again. Fewer pass attempts and fewer designed runs will limit his weekly ceiling.
He's being drafted as a top-10 fantasy QB, but he's more likely to finish outside the top 12.
Running Back Bust
Drafting exciting rookies and breakout sophomores is part of the fantasy football fun. But for every rising star, there's another young player who gets over-drafted based on hype, team investment, or one hot month. These are the traps that can quietly derail your roster.
This breakdown focuses on rookies and second-year players most likely to bust in 2025 fantasy leagues. Some are stepping into crowded depth charts, while others flashed briefly before fading down the stretch. Fantasy managers looking to avoid busts while mining for fantasy football sleepers need to recognize when talent and situation don't align.
Before you get too excited about a shiny new prospect, take a look at which names are likely to underperform based on usage trends, offensive identity and coaching intent.
Quarterback Bust
Bo Nix – Denver Broncos
Nix was a fantasy savior down the stretch in 2024, posting 29 passing touchdowns and rushing for 430 yards and four scores. But that production came in a very specific context: the Broncos had no reliable run game and leaned heavily on Nix to carry the offense.
That's changed.
Denver added J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey behind a strong offensive line, signaling a clear shift toward run-first football. With the defense also improving, Nix won't need to play hero ball again. Fewer pass attempts and fewer designed runs will limit his weekly ceiling.
He's being drafted as a top-10 fantasy QB, but he's more likely to finish outside the top 12.
Running Back Bust
Tyrone Tracy – New York Giants
Tracy broke out in Weeks 5–10 of his rookie year, averaging 16 carries per game and delivering solid production. But his role shrank after the bye; his yards per carry dropped from 5.4 (Weeks 5-9) to 3.46 (Week 12 on), and rushing volume declined sharply.
While he did show improvement as a receiver, the Giants added Cam Skattebo—an efficient pass-catcher and strong pass protector. That makes Tracy vulnerable in both phases.
With his late-season workload trending down and a new rookie threat in town, Tracy projects as a rotational player. It's unlikely he finishes as a top-40 fantasy back.
Wide Receiver Busts
Marvin Harrison – Arizona Cardinals
Harrison's rookie line of 885 yards and eight touchdowns was fine, but well below the expectations of fantasy drafters who took him as a borderline WR1. The real issue was volume and role; Harrison ran a high rate of deep sideline routes, which didn't align with Kyler Murray's strength as a passer.
Even after the Cardinals' late bye week, there was no adjustment to Harrison's usage. He continued to be miscast in a vertical role that minimized his YAC potential.
With Trey McBride out-targeting him 143 to 116, and no evidence that the coaching staff will adapt, Harrison looks like a player stuck in a suboptimal role. His WR18 ADP is too aggressive.
Travis Hunter – Jacksonville Jaguars
Hunter was a two-way star in college, but his transition to the NFL won't be seamless. His route running and timing still reflect a defensive player's instincts, and he'll need time to refine his craft against NFL corners.
What's more, if Hunter continues to play occasional defensive snaps, the physical toll could catch up quickly. Talent is not the issue, but usage, conditioning and refinement are. He's a future star, but as a rookie, he's unlikely to crack the top-40 receivers.
Matthew Golden – Green Bay Packers
Golden's first-round pedigree and electric speed drew fantasy interest, but the fit in Green Bay is shaky. After a pass-heavy first half in 2024, the Packers committed to the run after their bye week. Jordan Love dropped to just 24 pass attempts per game, while Josh Jacobs became the focal point.
That philosophy won't change if the team keeps winning this way. With Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft already demanding targets, Golden is just one more player battling for targets.
Also, if he's used as a deep threat, it plays into Love's biggest weakness: vertical accuracy. It's hard to see Golden offering consistent fantasy value.
Luther Burden – Chicago Bears
Burden's second-round draft capital suggests opportunity, but the path is murky. The Bears already have DJ Moore and Rome Odunze atop the depth chart, and new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson favors two-tight-end formations.
With Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet both expected to be heavily involved, Burden may struggle to see the field in three-receiver sets. Snap share, not talent, is the biggest issue here.
Even in a solid offense, low usage usually means low fantasy returns. Burden likely finishes well outside the top 50 receivers.
Tight End Bust
Tyler Warren – Indianapolis Colts
Warren may be the long-term solution at tight end for the Colts, but fantasy managers banking on a strong rookie season should reconsider. The Colts' QB situation (Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones) doesn't scream volume passing offense.
Warren projects as a short-area possession target, which clashes with Michael Pittman's role. If the offense limits passing opportunities and the two are competing for similar routes, Warren's target share could be unpredictable week to week.
His long-term outlook is solid, but don't count on consistent production in Year 1.
Final Thoughts on Rookies and Second-Year Fantasy Busts
Every year, the fantasy community gets overly excited about young talent—and every year, some of those bets flop. Whether it's crowded NFL depth charts, poor scheme fits, or overestimated development curves, the risks are real.
Balancing upside with realistic expectations is key to drafting smart. Use fantasy football draft software to map out your roster targets and avoid traps that can sink your season.
These young fantasy football busts may someday shine—but in 2025, they look like pitfalls.
Looking for more in-depth analysis of rookie busts? Watch my video below:
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