Underdog NFL Pick 'Em: Week 2
It was a great Week 1 of NFL action, even if our UD pick 'em selections didn't go quite as well. I went 5-4 last week, leaving plenty of room to improve. A few notes about process.
- We obviously have one data point this season, which I'm willing to look at for individual players so long as context is kept in mind.
- As for larger team trends such as pass rate and pace, or defensive quality, I'll mostly hold off for a few more weeks of data as things even out around the league. The logic of the picks in Week 2 will once again be primarily based on what we expect to unfold in the games and using that to project player production.
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Higher
Kayshon Boutte 
– higher than 34.5 receiving yards
Boutte's Week 1 performance may turn out to be a fluke, but the good news is that his projection for Week 2 is one-third of his production against the Raiders. There's also reason to believe, at least in part, in what we saw from Boutte. He led the Patriots in routes run (40) and matched the ability of Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas to command targets. It's a bit too early to base our picks primarily on matchup, but the Dolphins entered the season with a very shaky secondary on paper and that was confirmed by their Week 1 showing against the Colts.
Garrett Wilson 
vs. BUF– higher than 56.5 receiving yards
The Jets utilized a run-heavy offense as expected in Week 1, but Justin Fields looked much improved as a passer. Also unsurprising was that Wilson was Fields' primary target by a wide margin. Wilson accounted for 57.2 percent of the team's air yards and 42.9 percent of the traditional target share. The matchup against Buffalo should also be in Wilson's favor. The Bills have the reputation of being a tough defense, but they've been searching for a solution at safety for over a calendar year and have to find it. Zay Flowers took advantage in Week 1, and Wilson should do the same.
Brian Thomas 
at CIN – higher than 69.5 receiving yards
It's a good time to buy low on some of the underachieving stars from Week 1, with Thomas being a prime example. He and Travis Hunter were the only two pass catchers to run a route on all 31 of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks. While Hunter did cut into Thomas' target share, Thomas still had the superior air yards share and aDOT.
Game script is also important to consider. The Jaguars attempted 12 passes in the second half of their Week 1 matchup against Carolina, in part due to the wet weather and also because they had the game in their control. The story is likely to be different in a potential high-scoring affair with Cincinnati this week. Thomas' projection dipped around seven yards from what we saw in Week 1, but it's not time to panic yet.
James Conner 
vs. CAR – higher than 59.5 rushing yards
This is less about the player and more about anticipating how this game will play out. On one side, we saw the Carolina defense get gashed by Travis Etienne in Week 1. Meanwhile, Arizona was willing to sit on the ball in the second half of its win over New Orleans, rushing the ball 14 times while allowing Kyler Murray to attempt only 13 passes.
I'd project Carolina to struggle to put up points once again (more on that soon), and for Arizona to be playing ahead in the second half. That sets up Conner to be the workhorse down the stretch. It may not be pretty, but he can grind out 60 rushing yards in that context.
Zach Charbonnet 
at PIT – higher than 46.5 rushing yards
The running back split in Seattle may not be as bad for Kenneth Walker as it looks at first glance – he out-carried Charbonnet 6-3 in the second half of Week 1 -- but it's clear that Charbonnet has a role. It's also clear that the Steelers' defense should be attacked on the ground. After spending the offseason attempting to fix its ability to stop the run, Breece Hall and company averaged 4.7 yards per attempt against Pittsburgh in Week 1. Derrick Harmon has already been ruled out due to a knee injury, leaving the defensive line thin and devoid of much talent, with the exception of Cam Heyward.
Lower
Bryce Young 
at ARI– lower than 1.5 passing touchdowns
Young has been hyped entering 2025 due to the way he closed last season, but what we saw in Week 1 against a non-formidable Jacksonville defense looked a lot like the struggling version of Young. This isn't to say he can't or won't be able to regain his form, but he isn't set up for success right now. The Panthers suffered the bad luck of trading away Adam Thielen, only to have Jalen Coker land on IR a few days later this preseason. That leaves Young with primary targets of rookie Tetairoa McMillan and Xavier Legette. McMillan has promise and pedigree, but doesn't look to be capable of having the passing offense revolve around him at this point in his career. Meanwhile, Legette has underwhelmed, to put it generously.
All together, we have a quarterback with uncertain skills, a poor receiving corps and an improved Arizona defense.
Jahmyr Gibbs 
vs. CHI– lower than 14.5 rush attempts
This was supposed to be the season that Gibbs took over the Detroit backfield from David Montgomery, but nothing of what we saw in Week 1 suggests that's the case. Montgomery out-carried Gibbs 11-9 and was on the field for 38 percent of snaps despite the game script dictating that Gibbs' pass-catching skillset be used more. Last season, Gibbs had higher than 14.5 rush attempts in eight of 18 games. However, that number shrank to five in games when Montgomery was on the field. In that 15-game sample, Gibbs averaged 13.3 rush attempts per game.
It has to be acknowledged that the blowout nature of Detroit's Week 1 loss skewed the team's overall run volume, but the Week 1 usage of the backs suggests there's a lot of similarities to 2024.
Tyrone Tracy 
at DAL – lower than 47.5 rushing yards
This may go against the grain of the narrative around Tracy this week, and I should start by acknowledging that he clearly served as the Giants' lead back in Week 1. However, that's the end of the good news for him. Tracy didn't prove to be much of an upgrade over Devin Singletary last year as measured by things the Giants likely care about, such as success rate. Tracy was also a huge liability in ball security – something NFL teams obviously care about -- as he fumbled five times on 230 total touches as a rookie. He also had a drop in Week 1 that could/should have been ruled a fumble. With coach Brian Daboll already searching for answers, it wouldn't be a surprise to see work shift away from Tracy.
Even if he maintains the dominant grip on touches, there's reason to worry about Tracy's efficiency. He averaged -0.1 rush yards over expectation in 2024 and turned in -1.26 rush yards over expectation in Week 1. He also won't be helped by the Giants' abysmal offense. Finally, Jerry Jones was rightfully ridiculed for saying that he swapped Micah Parsons for Kenny Clark to stop the run, but Dallas did well containing Saquon Barkley in Week 1.
