NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 15 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 15 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 15 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 10 games. There will be no more teams on bye from this point forward, but the Thursday Night Football (Chargers-Raiders), Saturday game (Vikings-Bengals, Steelers-Colts and Broncos-Lions), Sunday Night Football (Ravens-Jaguars) and Monday Night Football (Eagles-Seahawks) participants play outside the Week 15 main slate. Yahoo will run plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 15, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $100k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 15 options include a QB-WR stack that has thrived throughout the season, two big-name RBs, and bargain options at TE and D/ST.

QUARTERBACK

Brock Purdy, SF at ARI ($30): Purdy offers an unmatched combination of production, affordability and matchup in Week 15. His average of 19.8 fantasy points per game is third-highest among QBs playing in the Sunday Baller slate, and the two guys ahead of him are both at least $37. San Francisco's second-year QB has thrown for at least 314 yards in three of his last four games while posting a 10:2 TD:INT over that span, and the 49ers are expected to have their full complement of weapons in the passing game against a Cardinals secondary that's been burned for 22 passing TDs -- tied for fourth-most in the NFL.

Honorable Mentions:

Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. WAS ($33); Jordan Love, GB vs. TB ($30); Sam Howell, WAS at LAR ($28)

Against the Grainers:

Patrick Mahomes, KC at NE ($35);  Joe Flacco, CLE vs. CHI ($27); Zach Wilson, NYJ at MIA ($21)

RUNNING BACK

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. HOU ($29): Henry has scored multiple rushing TDs in each of his last three games, and he's unlikely to slow down against a Texans team that he has utterly dominated in recent meetings. Four of the last five times Henry has faced Houston, he has rushed for over 200 yards. This year's Texans have actually been stingier than league average against the run, but some of that success can be attributed to opponents falling behind due to their inability to defend Houston's passing attack. With standout rookie QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) likely to sit out for the visitors, the Titans should have a more positive game script against the depleted Texans, thus giving Henry more opportunities on the ground.

Bijan Robinson, ATL at CAR ($28): After some inconsistent usage early in the season, Robinson has become the focal point of Atlanta's offense in recent weeks, averaging 19.5 touches over the last four games while posting at least 79 scrimmage yards in each. The rookie first-round draft pick also has four rushing TDs in his last six games after going seven games without one to begin his career. Robinson scored through the air against the Panthers back in Week 1, and that's one of the league-high 21 scrimmage TDs Carolina has allowed to running backs. The Falcons are likely to play from ahead against their 1-12 opponent, and Atlanta can't afford to get cute with Robinson's usage now, as Atlanta's part of a three-way tie atop the NFC South at 6-7.

Honorable Mentions:

Christian McCaffrey, SF at ARI ($42); Kyren Williams, LAR vs. WAS ($33); Rachaad White, TB at GB ($27)

Against the Grainers:

Tony Pollard, DAL at BUF ($24); Breece Hall, NYJ at MIA ($22); Ezekiel Elliott, NE vs. KC ($20)

WIDE RECEIVER

Brandon Aiyuk, SF at ARI ($28): It can be hard to predict which of San Francisco's numerous weapons will step up in any given game, but after Deebo Samuel rampaged for over 30 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks, it could be time for Aiyuk to lead the passing game. Arizona has allowed the third-fewest yards to tight ends, so George Kittle may not see much volume, while Aiyuk is the top downfield option for Purdy, and the Cardinals have frequently allowed WRs to beat them over the top en route to allowing the 11th-most yards to the position. Aiyuk has scored, topped 100 yards, or both, in each of his last six games, and he had 148 receiving yards against the Cardinals back in Week 4, which is Aiyuk's second-highest total of the season.

Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. WAS ($25): After playing through an ankle injury for the better part of two months, Kupp finally looked back to his usual self last week, as his 115 receiving yards marked his highest total since he posted 118 and 148 yards in consecutive games prior to hurting his ankle. Kupp also has a two-game touchdown streak going, and he has a nice opportunity to keep rolling against a Commanders defense that has allowed the most yards (2,580) and second-most TDs (20) to wide receivers. When fully healthy, Kupp has generally garnered more of Matthew Stafford's attention than Puka Nacua ($25), but the rookie WR is also an appealing option as part of a Rams stack against Washington's putrid secondary.

Jayden Reed, GB vs. TB ($18): The rookie will be especially appealing if Christian Watson's hamstring injury sidelines him again, but Reed has been heavily involved lately regardless of his teammate's availability. He has found the end zone in four of the last five games, and he set career highs in both receptions (eight) and rushing attempts (four) in Monday's loss to the Giants, indicating that the Packers are making a concerted effort to get the ball into his hands. Tampa Bay's 2,517 receiving yards allowed to WRs are third-most in the NFL, and the Buccaneers have been even more vulnerable in the secondary lately after sustaining a few key injuries.

Honorable Mentions:

Chris Olave, NO vs. NYG ($24); DeAndre Hopkins, TEN vs. HOU ($21); Rashee Rice, KC at NE ($19)

Against the Grainers: 

Mike Evans, TB at GB ($29); Garrett Wilson, NYJ at MIA ($21); Noah Brown, HOU at TEN ($17)

TIGHT END

Logan Thomas, WAS at LAR ($13): The top TEs in the main slate have tricky matchups, so this is a good week to go bargain hunting at the position. Thomas has at least 40 yards in seven of 12 appearances this season, and Washington's Week 14 bye likely provided a nice opportunity for the 32-year-old tight end to rest any bumps and bruises, so he should be a little more spry for this favorable matchup. The Rams are tied for the most TDs allowed to TEs with seven, and LA's 809 yards allowed to the position are fourth-most in the NFL. Four of the Rams' last six opponents have had a tight end produce at least 47 yards and a touchdown.

Honorable Mentions:

David Njoku, CLE vs. CHI ($19); Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. DAL ($16); Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. HOU ($11)

Against the Grainers: 

Travis Kelce, KC at NE ($25); Trey McBride, ARI vs. SF ($21); Hunter Henry, NE vs. KC ($12)

DEFENSE

Atlanta Falcons at CAR ($12): Prior to scoring just one fantasy point against the Buccaneers last week, this unit posted 29.0 fantasy points over the previous two weeks, so Atlanta's defense has shown it can capitalize on favorable matchups. It doesn't get much more favorable than the Panthers, who have given up plenty of big plays to opposing defenses and special teams units en route to a 1-12 record. Panthers QB Bryce Young has gone six consecutive games without reaching 200 passing yards, and he has just one passing TD over that span, while Atlanta's defense has yet to allow a rushing TD to a running back, so getting into the end zone won't be easy for the Panthers. Young has also been sacked at least four times in seven of his last eight games, and he was sacked three times in the other game over that span. 

Honorable Mentions:

Cleveland Browns vs. CHI ($18); Miami Dolphins vs. NYJ ($17); New Orleans Saints vs. NYG ($17)

Against the Grainers: 

New York Jets at MIA ($17); Kansas City at NE ($16); Tennessee Titans vs. HOU ($11)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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