This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
The Pianowski Doctrine
Half a decade ago, when Andre Johnson was the best receiver in the league, Scott Pianowski offered to trade him to me for Marques Colston. Johnson was week to week with a hamstring injury, and Colston, though healthy, was somewhere in the 10-20 range among wideouts. I honestly can't remember if I accepted the deal (or merely tracked what would have happened had I done so), but Johnson never got healthy and wound up playing only seven games that year. Colston, meanwhile, went 80-1,143-8.
Over the years, Pianowski has done a lot more of those trades, and while some have no doubt blown up on him, I'm fairly sure he's made a net profit. The reason I suspect he's come out ahead on balance is not that he has a crystal ball or any special information about injuries, but that injury forecasts are often unduly optimistic, and medium-term predictions are more difficult than short-term ones.
On the first point, we have plenty of examples from this season from Thomas Rawls, to Doug Martin to Dion Lewis to Jamaal Charles. Occasionally someone beats his estimate by a week or so, and comes back entirely healthy, but when the upside is one-week earlier than you had thought, and the downside is out for the year, you can see that's not a good risk/reward proposition.
The second point is more subtle. Because you're betting on something happening down the road rather than right away, there's added risk even if the player's health checks out. Consider how poorly Todd Gurley, DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson have fared even while healthy - you're projecting players not only to be whole but to fit in and function well in a situation that very well might change two, three or four weeks from now. A quarterback meltdown like Blake Bortles or Brock Osweiler have had, or an injury like Russell Wilson's that's derailed Doug Baldwin only adds to the uncertainty. The farther you project into the future, the less you know what you're getting.
Consequently, I've for the most part adopted the Pianowski doctrine for my own teams (at least those with small benches.) I dropped Donte Moncrief right away after his injury, and I picked up Jacquizz Rodgers everywhere even though Martin was allegedly coming back the following week. The Moncrief drop might come back to bite me, but I was able to pick up Terrance West and Rodgers and hold onto Tyrell Williams through the byes because I wasn't short a roster spot. One key to making it work is to cut the cord on the injured player right away. Every week you hold on, hoping to weather the down time, you're incurring a significant opportuntity cost in leagues with smaller benches. Once the byes have passed, it makes more sense to pick up or wait on an injured player, but even then, you might have to wait a week before he's really back, e.g., Tyler Eifert, before you can use him.
The Dictator's Whims
Early in the first quarter, Saints coach Sean Payton pulled running back Mark Ingram for a fumble, his second in two games, and replaced him with journeyman Tim Hightower who got stuffed five times at the goal line and fumbled himself en route to 102 yards from scrimmage on 26 carries and three targets. Initially, I was annoyed by this because I'm an Ingram owner, and I had him going in one of my NFFC leagues, but even though I won that matchup, I'm still annoyed, and I don't have Ingram anywhere else except some MFLs that were probably dead in the water anyway.
It seems that as much work as we do to analyze player skill sets, team context, roles and health, there's one variable that's nearly impossible to predict, and that's coaching whims. I say "whims" rather than "decisions" because the latter could imply the exercise of thought or logic. While it's plausible Payton benched Ingram because fumbles are costly, it's doubtful that was the reason in this case as Ingram has played for the Saints since 2011 and has not had ball security problems. In fact, those were his first two fumbles of the year on 89 carries, and he's had only nine fumbles in his entire career (837 carries, 125 catches.) That rate of nine fumbles over 962 touches is one in every 107 touches. Contrast that with Hightower who has 12 fumbles on 807 career touches (1 every 67) or other notable backs like Adrian Peterson who's fumbled 38 times on 2652 touches (1 every 70) or Frank Gore (1 every 79.) While veterans Matt Forte (1 every 129) and LeSean McCoy (1 every 118) have lower fumble rates than Ingram, ball security has not been a weakness for him.
Moreover, Ingram's benching does not serve any constructive purpose. Plainly, Ingram did not intend to fumble, and therefore punishing him cannot deter him from doing so in the future. The only rationale I can supply for Payton's whim is he let his frustration at the outcome of Ingram's recent carries get the better of him. Coaches are human, and football is an emotional game, so I'm not suggesting we persecute them for acting irrationally after a bad bounce goes against them even though a player would be fined and his team penalized if he, for example, pulled off his helmet in frustration, had some words with the ref or kicked the ball. But once the play had passed, and Payton had a chance to cool down, he doubled, triple, quadrupled and quintupled down, trying to brute force Hightower in from the goal line without success. Apparently, Payton justified his decision saying Hightower is a more physical back and had the hot hand, but historically that's simply untrue - the 5-9, 215-pound Ingram has been better at breaking tackles than the more upright 6-0, 220-pound Hightower. And Hightower's per-play production (3.9 YPC, no receiving yards on three targets) hardly warranted giving him the entirety of the workload.
The bottom line, Payton did what he felt like in the moment, and being a coach, is simply not accountable for it. Ingram, like most players, is subject to these whims and will be permitted to do his job according to them. As fantasy owners, we have little recourse but to understand that guessing what these unaccountable dictators will do is part of the task even if much of their process is opaque and without basis. The NFL is already losing viewership, and coaches like Payton are doing their part to push the most dedicated ones - fantasy owners - to the exits as well.
Week 8 Observations
• Jay Gruden is a good coach. He's not afraid to go on 4th-and-short, mixes up plays well, isn't wedded to establishing the run and uses his timeouts on defense as soon as it's in his team's interest to extend the game.
•Rob Kelley runs hard, but barely gets what's blocked. Chris Thompson can't carry the load, so Kelley could keep seeing work, but he's not especially good.
•Tyler Eifert is the rare injured player worth the wait. He's the team's No. 2 receiver after A.J. Green and their top red-zone target. His return boosts Andy Dalton's value too.
•Kirk Cousins is good, not great, but with the play-calling, Jordan Reed back and Jamison Crowder looking like a poor man's Antonio Brown, the setup is favorable. That said, Cousins' end-of-game, out-of-bounds, 20-yards-short-of-the-end-zone Hail Mary was one of the worst throws of all time.
• It's amazing Vernon Davis was freely available, and the Giants are still trotting out Larry Donnell's carcass.
• I keep making the mistake of fading the Pats ATS and losing. It doesn't matter what the "value" is because the per-play metrics oddmakers use apparently don't account for everything the Patriots do right. While good coaching translates into better per-play efficiency, it also means fewer punts/FG at the wrong times, better down-and-distance scenarios, more efficient clock management, etc., none of which are captured adequately.
• The Patriots threw 33 times and ran 21, not including a Brady scramble and Garoppolo kneel-down in a game they won by 16 and were leading the entire way. Why are other coaches not imitating the Patriots more?
• In a week where the chalk failed to come through (Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Russell Wilson and Mike Evans, Spencer Ware, among others), Rob Gronkowski was money in the bank.
• What a backdoor push by the Browns! Down 11, and they get the TD and the two in the closing seconds – just amazing. But if you can't beat the Jets at home, you've got some real 0-16 risk.
• The Jets need to get Christian Hackenberg or Bryce Petty some reps. The Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment has run its course.
•Matt Forte has 55 carries over the last two weeks – the Jets are content to use up the last of what's left in his tank.
•Gary Barnidge caught a 32-yard pass on the first drive and had two catches for 10 yards the rest of the way. So much for his rapport with Josh McCown.
• The Chiefs easily beat the Colts in Indy without Alex Smith for most and Spencer Ware for much of the game. They also get Justin Houston (29.5 sacks in his last 27 games) back at some point soon.
•Nick Foles targeted Travis Kelce 10 times with excellent results. It's too bad Smith won't do the same.
• With T.Y. Hilton playing hurt, the Colts passing game fell apart, even with Donte Moncrief back.
•Russell Wilsonisn't himself. Not only is he still moving like Philip Rivers, but he's not crisp as a passer. His 4th-down, uncatchably-out-of-bounds fade to Jermaine Kearse with the game on the line was terrible, and he missed a wide-open Jimmy Graham – instead forcing the ball to a covered receiver – on one of the previous drives. It's almost as if a normal QB would just sit out for four weeks and get healthy, while Wilson is forcing himself through it.
• Pick up C.J. Prosise now. He's their third-down back, Christine Michael isn't setting the world on fire and who knows if or when Thomas Rawls will be back.
• Jack Del Rio deserves credit for going for it on 4th-and-4 in overtime, playing for the win and calling a play that not only gave them the first down, but won them the game.
•Amari Cooper is living up to his draft status this season, developing in Year 2 the way he was expected to. Derek Carr had all day to throw, but he made the most of it, not only racking up 500-plus, but doing it without making mistakes.
•Jameis Winston was under pressure all day from Khalil Mack, making the Tampa offense largely unwatchable.
•Carson Palmer has taken a beating in his long career, and absorbed eight more sacks Sunday. That 7.9 YPA and three TDs don't look as good with the sack yardage subtracted and the interception and fumble factored in. Moreover, his longest pass play was only 21 yards.
•Jonathan Stewart got two goal-line TDs, even though Cam Newton had his usual seven rushes. I'm not sure what to make of this.
•Brock Osweiler faced the league's worst defense and managed 6.4 YPA, a pick and three sacks at home. It's likely Houston will have another quarterback in 2017. John Elway's looking like a genius for letting him walk.
•DeAndre Hopkins is in Allen Robinson territory now. You don't need a great QB to power a monster season from an elite receiver, but below replacement-level competence is a problem.
• With San Diego scoring to cut the lead to five with eight minutes left, Mike McCoy rightfully opted to go for two and cut it to three. But the Chargers got a 10-yard penalty, making the two-point try from the 12. But as if on auto-pilot, McCoy ignored the vast downgrade in conversion-likelihood, and went for it anyway, when kicking the sure-thing PAT would have cut it to four and made a major difference in the event the Broncos kicked a field goal. Of course, the Broncos did precisely that on their next possession, making the lead eight rather than seven. It's lucky for McCoy the Chargers got stuffed at the goal line on their next drive, otherwise they might have gone for two and failed, putting one more nail in his coffin.
•Philip Rivers had an ugly stat line, but played better than it would indicate. In Denver, without his top receiver Tyrell Williams early in the game, missing Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead, under a ton of pressure, Rivers still managed to move the ball against the league's best pass defense.
• I've dogged Melvin Gordon for much of the year, but he ran hard in this game, breaking tackles and moving the pile against a stout front seven.
• With the Broncos up five late, Gary Kubiak, instead of going into a shell and hoping his defense would hold, called for downfield throws that set-up the field goal to put them up eight points. Kubiak is a much better coach in Denver than he was in Houston. I suppose winning a Super Bowl takes the heat off.
•Devontae Booker struggled to gain yards as the team's lead back. The offense as a whole didn't move the ball consistently, though game flow – due to a defensive score – was part of it.
•Aaron Rodgers had only 6.5 YPA, but he played much better than that with four TDs, no picks and 60 rushing yards, many of which resulted in back-breaking third-down conversions.
•Jordy Nelson made a big play early and caught a TD, but did little for the remainder of the game.
•Davante Adams showed great hands, but still managed only 74 yards on 14 targets.
•Matt Ryan got 8.2 YPA and led the Falcons to a win without Tevin Coleman and despite getting nothing from Julio Jones, who was banged up yet again in the first half.
• I had the Falcons in one survivor pool, and I want to personally thank Mike McCarthy for passively holding onto his two timeouts with Atlanta driving inside the 20, down six, with two minutes left and two timeouts of their own. By the time, the Falcons scored, there were only 31 seconds left, but McCarthy still had his time outs!
•Carson Wentz completed 32 passes for 202 yards (4.7 YPA). Oddly 33-year-old Darren Sproles is the Eagles' primary back now.
•Dez Bryant caught only four of 14 targets, but one of them went for 53 yards and another was a 22-yard TD. It's safe to say he's back.
•Dak Prescott had his worst game as a pro, but I suspect the Cowboys would have to lose before they'd make a switch to Tony Romo, and that's not likely in Week 9 against the Browns. Moreover, owner Jerry Jones suggested Romo might not be ready until late in the year.
•Andre Johnson retired Monday, probably two seasons too late, but that's how it goes in the NFL. The same could be said for his former teammate Arian Foster. Matt Schaub is still active as the Falcons' backup, however.
•Jordan Howard re-established himself as the clear No. 1 back in Chicago, running roughshod over a stout Vikings defense. The danger in counting on rookie backs without elite pedigrees is how easily they can lose carries, but this showing – after his successes earlier in the year – should lock him in.
•Jay Cutler was sharp in his first game back against a good Minnesota pass defense and could have had a bigger day had Alshon Jeffery turned his head on a deep ball that hit him in the helmet.
• While Zach Miller saw the most targets, Jeffery was involved and caught a TD despite being matched up against corner Xavier Rhodes. With Cutler back, Jeffery is again a top-10-ish WR.
• The Vikings offense is in trouble. Sam Bradford is a reasonably accurate QB that can go through his progressions, but he needs time to throw, and he's not going to create anything himself. Moreover, he needs a running game to set him up in better down-and-distance.
• The Vikings loss took down roughly 35 percent of survivor pools, a beautiful thing if you faded them.
