Weekly PGA Preview: BMW Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

BMW Championship 

Castle Pines Golf Club
Castle Rock, CO

The PGA Tour heads to Castle Pines for another edition of the BMW Championship.

Before we get to that, a read a tweet this past week that brought up the fact that even though Scottie Scheffler has dominated the PGA Tour this year, he'll only (potentially) start the Tour Championship with a two-stroke lead over the nearest competitor, to which my initial reaction was, "that doesn't seem right", but after thinking about it further, I had a different opinion. The current set up is in place to give the best player during the season, which includes the playoff, an edge over the field, it's akin to home field advantage in other sports, and while it seems fair to do so as there's no way to give a golfer an advantage over the field other than strokes, the entire point of a playoff is to see who is best over a short period of time, with everything on the line. Even though Scheffler was the best all year, in a playoff, he needs to prove it again and that's how it should be. Golf the only sport that alters the scoring to help the "better" player, so even though when comparing this year to previous years, sure, the strokes don't seem to be enough, but the fact that we are even including strokes when this is supposed to be a playoff is a bit off in my opinion. I think we should just do away with the strokes and let the best 30 have at it. It's not like we consider the FedEx champion the best player during the year anyway, that's generally decided before the playoffs start.     

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.                   

LAST TIME

Viktor Hovland shot a final round 61 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (33-10) 

For those that do not want to do the math, Scheffler is a bit over 3-1, which is a smidge lower than he was to start the St. Jude. What does that tell us? Well, it's a smaller field and he was in the mix this past week, but he never threatened, so it tells us that the odds makers have not lost faith in Scheffler because he failed to win in Memphis. We have no course history at Castle Pines, so everyone starts on a level playing field, which is great news for Scheffler because he's so much better than most of the field. I don't like the odds here, but I would definitely consider making a play on him. 

Xander Schauffele (11-2)

Schauffele's odds have also come down slightly, which also makes sense because he played well this past week, just not good enough to ever threaten the eventual winner, Hideki Matsuyama. If we're thinking about motivation, it's obviously highest for those trying to break into the top-30, but there is also some at the top as well as those are the guys jockeying for position heading into the final week. In Schauffele's case, there is a chance he could have the stroke lead heading into next week, he's need to win and have Scheffler play terribly, so there isn't much of a chance, but another thing to think about for Schauffele is holding onto second place and staying as close to Scheffler as possible.                                   

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

It seems a bit absurd that a guy that played as poorly as McIlroy did this past week is the third favorite, but odds makers are slow to move big names down the board, so here we are. The one move they did make was to pump up McIlroy's odds though as this past week he was 10-1 entering the week. Still, this move doesn't seem to be enough because McIlroy was absolutely lost in Memphis. I wondered prior to the start of the playoffs if McIlroy would be ready to play after a rough final two majors and apparently, he wasn't. I see no need to even consider McIlroy as a win option at Castle Pines.                                                                   

THE NEXT TIER

Viktor Hovland (18-1)

I had a hunch that Hovland would play well during the playoffs and so far, that seems to be true. Hovland finished T2 at St. Jude and it appears as though he might be back to his old self. Before we get too excited though, he has popped a couple times this season and failed to follow that up with anything substantial, so I guess we'll have to wait one more week before declaring he's back, but if you want to get out ahead of it, you could grab him at this fairly large number.  

Wyndham Clark (28-1)

It's funny how fast people jumped ship on Clark after a rough patch earlier this season, but he's showing that he's got some resolve with his play lately. I was not one that gave up on Clark and even suggested him as a good long shot option several times (though he failed to come through). Clark did struggle quite a bit this season after a strong start, but he's fought his way back and is starting to look like the guy who won a major and challenged Scheffler early in the season. Clark finished T7 in Memphis, and I believe it's just the start of a strong finish to the season.

Sam Burns (35-1)            

When you have no course history to use, it's tough to get away from the players that played well the previous week. With that in mind, I like Burns because he's coming off a strong week at St. Jude. Not only that, but Burns has always been a guy who plays well in bunches and if he's in the midst of a hot streak, then this would be a great price to get him.                            

LONG SHOTS

Robert MacIntyre (60-1)

50 players in the field, all the best players on the PGA Tour, yeah, it's going to be tough for any long shot to pull it off this week, so the first thing you need from your long shot is a history of winning. Up until this season, MacIntyre did not have that history on the PGA Tour, but now that he's done it twice, he definitely knows how to handle himself in these situations.                      

Will Zalatoris (75-1)       

I don't think Zalatoris has enough gas to win, and I'm not alone, but that's why he's getting 75-1. Zalatoris has had a rough year coming back from injury, but he's shown some flashes of his old self this season and one of those flashes came early this past week. Zalatoris played well early in the week but lost some steam on the weekend. If he can find a way to keep his play up through the weekend, he could have a shot.                                

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Viktor Hovland - I mentioned last week that Hovland was probably still available on a lot of OAD teams because of his poor play this season and that's still probably true, but I have to imagine that after his T2 in Memphis, he'll be pretty popular at the BMW Championship. Hovland is a good pick to keep your position, but don't expect to gain much ground on the competition, because they're likely to have him.   

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Wyndham Clark - OAD players that did not use Clark early in the season will likely still have him available. If that's the case, he could be quite popular, although I get the feeling that many OAD players still aren't quite sure that they can trust him. If he's one of only a few options, I would definitely consider using him in this spot.                 

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Robert MacIntyre - With only two events left, most OAD players will be looking to unload their biggest names, which is why MacIntyre will be lightly used this week. If you need to make a big move, MacIntyre should be at the top of your list.      

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - I had McIlroy in this spot last week and that was definitely the right play. I will say this though, I felt better about fading him this past week than I do this week only because a golfer of McIlroy's caliber is not going to want a repeat of what happened, so he'll likely do everything he can to avoid a bad finish. With that said, I think his tank is running on empty, so a good finish for him might be a top-20.               

This Week: Collin Morikawa - I've got two big guns left, Morikawa and Matsuyama. Considering they are both in good position for next week's Tour Championship, I'm free to make whichever pick at Castle Pines. I'm going Morikawa as I think Matsuyama might be more popular. That and what are the odds that Matsuyama wins again this week? I know, his win in Memphis shouldn't affect his game at Castle Pines, but things have a way of evening out, so I'll go with Morikawa, who played okay this past week, and should be motivated to move up the points list this week.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Viktor Hovland ($11,100) 
Middle Range: Billy Horschel ($9,800) 
Lower Range: Robert MacIntyre ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES