DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Open Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $16.5M
Winner's Share: $3M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Hoylake, England
Course: Royal Liverpool Golf Club
Yardage: 7,383
Par: 71
2022 champion: Cameron Smith

Tournament Preview

Royal Liverpool, familiarly known as "Hoylake," is one of the grandest and perhaps most underrated courses in an Open Rota filled with venerable courses. It first hosted the Open Championship in 1897, and this will be the 13th time, fourth most in the modern era. But we have not seen this glorious plot of land all that much of late. In fact, just twice in more than a half-century: in 2006, when Tiger Woods won his 11th major championship, and in 2014, when Rory McIlroy won his third.

So it is under that backdrop of two great champions that the 151st Open Championship has a lot to live up to. It also has a lot going for it. The tournament arrives on the heels of perhaps golf's two most popular players -- Rickie Fowler and McIlroy -- having won in the past month.

McIlroy emerged Sunday in stunning fashion at the Scottish Open, and now he continues his almost-decade-long quest for a fifth major championship. After winning his third at Hoylake in 2014, McIlroy won his fourth just one month later at the PGA Championship. How many would he win in his career? The sky seemed the limit. Who could've imagined that nine years later he'd still be sitting on four? Since then, McIlroy has finished second, third, fourth and fifth in the Open, coming oh so close so many times. There was no greater heartbreak than last year, when at the historic 150th Open at St. Andrews, McIlroy was overtaken on Sunday by the brilliant play of Cameron Smith.

One year later, Smith and McIlroy are the focal points once again, and not just because one of them is with LIV Golf and one of them isn't. They are the top-two guys in the RotoWire Power Rankings. Right behind them are No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Fowler and the winners of this year's first two majors, Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka.

There's a good chance the winner will come from that group. In recent history, over the past 10 Opens, mostly top-10-ranked guys or those who had been in the top-10 before have won the Claret Jug. The top guys are not only the top guys because of their physical talents. It's also because they are most capable of navigating all the mental challenges that go into contending at and winning a major championship.

Woods and McIlroy won at 18-under and 17-under, respectively, but don't let that mislead you. It was especially firm and fast in 2006 -- Woods said he used driver only once all week. Hoylake could be a stern test, though it's all dependent on the weather. The course record is 65 (accomplished first by Woods, natch), but if there's minimal weather, that number will fall.

There have been significant changes to the course since we last saw it, as the club strives to stay relevant in today's modern game. The most noteworthy is that there is a new penultimate hole. The 17th (which, for golf course wonks, used to be the 15th going in the opposite direction) will play at a mere 136 yards, or shorter. The small green is ringed by pot bunkers, waste areas, gorse and all sorts of diabolical trouble. Golfers would be wise not to miss there. Then comes the 18th, which has been extended more than 50 yards to 609. There's always been out of bounds on the right on the 18th fairway, but famed British architect Martin Ebert moved it 20 yards to the left as part of his massive renovation of the course.

While Ebert orchestrated more than a dozen changes throughout the links -- the new 15th hole is now 620 yards, meaning that two of the final four holes are 600+ -- 17 and 18 were his biggest alterations. Ebert warns that even a three- or four-stroke lead heading into the 71st hole on Sunday will not be entirely safe.

Overall, Hoylake has been extended less than 100 yards since 2014, now at 7,383, though par has dropped from 72 to 71. When watching a hole-by-hole flyover, it's hard not to notice the strategically positioned fairway pot bunkers and gorse. As usual on links courses, the fairways are mostly flat, though Hoylake is not as wide as other Open tracks. The fun really starts closer to the hole. The greens could not be more different from those that PGA Tour players see on a weekly basis. They are large fescue/bent, averaging around 6,500 square feet, and slow. There are 84 bunkers, mostly of the deep, pot variety. There's rough, but with the largely dry summer, it isn't especially thick. Still, on many holes, birdie is in play but so is double bogey.

We can relay all these challenging conditions about Liverpool but, candidly, if there's no weather, today's pros will eat up this grand ol' course, like they did last year, almost sadly taking a firm and fast St. Andrews to its knees. Smith tied the all-time Open scoring record of 20-under, set four years earlier by Henrik Stenson in a Royal Troon Sunday shootout with Phil Mickelson.

So along those lines there is mixed news for fans of carnage. The forecast isn't dismal, but after a largely dry summer to date in the Hoylake region on the western edge of England north of Wales, there will be some rain. Not downpours, not stoppages in play, just that gray, overcasty drip, drip, drip that is associated with the U.K. But the key is the wind, and whether it shifts direction. Right now -- and we say "right now" because it's been changing seemingly every time we've checked over the past few days, so keep checking before the lock -- things won't be calm, yet there doesn't appear to be anything close to what we saw on Sunday at the Scottish Open. Nothing stronger than the mid-teens mph. Temperatures will top out in the mid-60s, if that.

Lastly, and importantly for DraftKings players, pricing is way different this year. Not only is Scheffler sky-high at $12,500, a number we have not seen in years, but for the first time in a "regular" tournament, prices drop into the $5000s. But not just a few guys -- 52 of them, exactly one third of the 156-man field, with John Daly bringing up the rear along with 10 others at the bargain-basement price of $5,500. Obviously, they are the worst golfers down there. Are they untouchable? Don't be fooled. These guys were all in the $6000s in past tournaments. They're still the same guys. We will address this new pricing phenomenon and offer strategy in the picks below.

Open Championship notes: Royal Liverpool is set for its 13th championship. That puts it fifth all-time and fourth in modern times. St. Andrews is first with 30. Prestwick is next with 24, but it has been out of the rota for almost a century. Then comes Muirfield (16, most recently in 2013), Royal St. George's (15, 2021) and then Liverpool. Previous Hoylake winners there include Robert De Vicenzo (1967), Peter Thomson (1956), Bobby Jones (1930) and Walter Hagen (1924). Jack Nicklaus was runner-up to De Vicenzo in 1967 in his lone Hoylake appearance.

Key Stats to Winning at Royal Liverpool

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Handling the pressure of a major

Past Champions

2022 - Cameron Smith (St. Andrews)
2021 - Collin Morikawa (Royal St. George's)
2020 - No tournament
2019 - Shane Lowry (Royal Portrush)
2018 - Francesco Molinari (Carnoustie)
2017 - Jordan Spieth (Royal Birkdale)
2016 - Henrik Stenson (Royal Troon)
2015 - Zach Johnson (St. Andrews)
2014 - Rory McIlroy (Royal Liverpool)
2013 - Phil Mickelson (Muirfield)

Champion's Profile

With links golf, it's sometimes counterintuitive to think that a course potentially so challenging with so many pitfalls lurking could also be easy. But that's the case when a course's primary defense is weather, specifically wind. Right now, the forecast calls for the wind to be, um, let's call it "medium," all week. The strongest winds right now could come on Sunday. So at least there's that. Hitting the ball far will be an asset this week, regardless of the weather. But the biggest asset in a golfer' arsenal will be his imagination. There will be so many options from 125 yards and in, so many pitfalls to negotiate. Smith handled those scenarios best last year, and that's why he won. He also made the most big putts. As we say with every major, the most important consideration in crafting a champion's profile is largely unquantifiable: How will they handle all the pressure? Who is mentally tough enough to win this week? The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com was set at 268.5, which is 15.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Tier 1 Values

Rory McIlroy - $11,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +650)
McIlroy was the betting favorite even before winning the Scottish Open on Sunday. But he's second to Scheffler in DraftKings DFS pricing. Scheffler finishes in the top-5 on the leaderboard every week -- seven tournaments in a row. But he hasn't won any of them. And at $600 more than McIlroy, that doesn't seem to make much sense. McIlroy delivers at the Open almost every year. In his past seven, he's finished first, second, third, fourth and fifth.

Cameron Smith - $10,700 (+1600) 
Smith taught a master class in links golf last year in winning at St. Andrews. That doesn't mean others can learn what Smith does. He's the best in the world from 125 yards and in, especially because he's the best big-moment putter. The PGA Championship and U.S. Open aren't the best fits for Smith's game, and yet he finished top-10 in both of them. The British Open is a perfect fit for the Australian short-game and putting magician.

Viktor Hovland - $10,000 (+2000) 
It's been an incredible year for Hovland, one of only two golfers -- along with Scheffler -- to finish top-10 in the first three majors and who last month registered the biggest win of his brief career at the Memorial. The key for Hovland has been a short-game metamorphosis, solving the one weakness his game. Consider that he tied for fourth last year at the Open before this new-found skill developed.

Jordan Spieth - $9,700 (+3500) 
The Open is Spieth's second best major, after the Masters. He's never missed a cut in nine tries and has been in the mix almost every year, with a win, a runner-up, a tie for fourth and, last year, a tie for eighth. He's actually missed the cut in three of his past four starts on Tour, including last week at the Scottish Open, but Spieth always answers the bell for Open week.

Tier 2 Values 

Tommy Fleetwood - $9,300 (+2200) 
Fleetwood famously has never won a PGA Tour event, but the majors are not the tournaments at issue. He's coming off a T5 at the U.S. Open, his third major top-5 in the past three years. That includes a T4 last year the Open, where he also was runner-up back in 2019. Fleetwood has two "regular" top-5s of late, including a playoff loss at the Canadian Open. He tied for sixth on Sunday at the Scottish Open. His short game is a hidden gem -- he's one of the best scramblers on Tour -- and his putting is greatly improved.

Dustin Johnson - $9,200 (+3000) 
Players who are very young tend to have consistency issues. Same for older players. Johnson recently turned 39. We saw at the previous major how good he still can be, tying for 10th at the U.S. Open. That followed subpar results at the first two majors, though Johnson did make both cuts. The consistency concern is valid, but worth the gamble because DJ's upside is so great, especially at a price almost in the $8,000s. He has had top-10s the past two years at the Open and in five of his 13 career starts.

Shane Lowry - $9,100 (+3500) 
Lowry has finished in the top-20 of all three majors this season. Now, he heads to his best one. He followed his inspirational 2019 Open win with T12 and T21 the next two years. And he is coming another T12 at the Scottish Open. Like his buddy Fleetwood, Lowry has a vastly underrated short game -- very soft hands for a big guy.

Bryson DeChambeau - $8,800 (+5500) 
Like with his LIV-mate Johnson above, DeChambeau comes with enormous upside. He's lost a lot of weight now that he's gotten over his mega-protein phase, but he still hits it as long as almost anyone. He tied for eighth at last year's Open. Then this year, he was T4 at the PGA and T20 at the U.S. Open. Those are good results at three different types of tracks.

Looking for assistance constructing your lineups? Check out RotoWire's PGA DFS Optimizer!

Tier 3 Values 

Adam Scott - $7,900 (+8000)
Scott has overcome a very slow start to the year with some quality play of late, though you wouldn't know it from last week's MC in Scotland. But in the two months before that: T19 at the Travelers, T9 at the Memorial, T29 at the PGA, T8 at the Byron Nelson, T5 at the Wells Fargo. We're talking about a golfer price at under $8,000 here. Scott has missed only five cuts in 22 Opens, and he turned in a tie for 15th last year.

Min Woo Lee - $7,700 (+5500) 
Lee is only 24, and inconsistency is still a part of his repertoire. But he's been pretty darn solid in the majors, with a top-25 in each of the four over the past two years. That includes a tie for fifth at last month's U.S. Open and a tie for 21st last year at the British Open. Lee is a very aggressive player -- it cost him big-time in the final round of THE PLAYERS in March -- but the upside is very attractive. Maybe better suited for a GPP than a cash game.

Ryan Fox - $7,400 (+9000)
Any time a player's two best clubs are driver and putter, he merits our attention. And as one of the most anonymous guys in the top-50 OWGR, Fox is always low-owned (he is ranked No. 42 in the world). The New Zealander has been holding his own in tough fields all year. He's coming off a T12 at the Scottish Open, had a top-25 at the PGA, just missed one at the Masters and made the cut at the U.S. Open. Fox missed the British cut last year, but he finished T16 there in 2019.

Brian Harman - $7,300 (+10000)  
Harman tied for 12th at the Scottish Open (with a final-round 74), continuing a summer reversal. That followed a tie for ninth at the Rocket Mortgage and a runner-up at the Travelers. Really, another top-15 is not a stretch, and at this price it would be a huge lineup boost. Harman tied for sixth last year at the Old Course and for 19th the year before.

Long-Shot Values

Robert MacIntyre - $6,800 (+6000) 
Yeah, we know what you're thinking. But we were high on MacIntyre before Sunday in Scotland. Honest! We had him 32nd in the Open Championship Power Rankings, and now maybe that's too low. The 26-year-old Scotsman has already finished in the top-10 twice in the Open, and he had never missed a cut in any major before the PGA in May. Before the Scottish Open, MacIntyre tied for fourth at the Made in Himmerland tournament on the DP World Tour.

Jordan Smith - $6,800 (+30000) 
Don't confuse him with Jordan Spieth. Don't confuse him with Cameron Smith. And certainly don't confuse his game with either of theirs. But he is the second best Jordan and the second best Smith in the world rankings, currently sitting at No. 89. Seriously, Smith tied for 12th just last week in a pretty stout Scottish Open field. And he had made 9 of 11 cuts before that, including an under-the-radar tie for 20th at the U.S. Open. The 30-year-old Englishman tied for 47th at last year's British Open.

Padraig Harrington - $6,600 (+13000) 
There aren't two many golfers who can say they are having good seasons on two tours at once. But the 51-year-old Harrington can. He's one of the top guys on the Champions Tour. And he's been no slouch on the PGA Tour either. He made the cut last week at the Scottish Open, just missed a top-25 at the U.S. Open, made the cut at the PGA and Bay Hill and tied for 10th at the Valero. The two-time Open winner is ranked 183rd in the world, far better than dozens of guys in this field. Just look at his betting odds compared to the players above and below him.

Thriston Lawrence - $6,200 (+60000) 
The 26-year-old South African was a real reach pick last week for the Scottish Open and in the Open Championship Power Rankings. Lawrence is little known, but he's no slouch at No. 80 OWGR, which is where he sits after missing the Scottish cut. So, we're back on him this week. The same things that led us to Lawrence are still in place. He won for the third time in the past year a few weeks back at the BMW International. He made the cut at last year's Open, tying for 42nd.

Really Long-Shot Values

Here are three guys in $5000s we like -- so much so that we put each of them in the Making the Cut category (barely!) in the Open Championship Power Rankings above. We'll favor Europeans here, guys more familiar with links golf and all the characteristics of playing golf in the U.K. Besides, they are all playing pretty well now. Richie Ramsay ($5900, +50000) and Marcel Siem ($5800, +80000) are both coming off T42s at the Scottish Open. Ramsay finished one shot out of a playoff the week before at the Made in Himmerland tournament, and that was after a double bogey on 18. Siem tied for 10th at the Himmerland and few weeks before that was runner-up at the Porsche European Open. The third guy is veteran Englishman Matthew Southgate ($5600, +50000). He missed the cut in Scotland. Before that, he also tied for 10th at the Himmerland event, and has a pair of top-12s in his Open career (2016-17). These picks are not for the faint of heart, but think how good it would feel if they pay off with a made cut.

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