This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $7.8M
Winner's Share: $1.404M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Harbor, Fla.
Course: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead)
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
2021 champion: Sam Burns
Tournament Preview
The Valspar Championship is back as part of the Florida Swing for the first time in three years. That may sound odd considering the tournament has always been played in Florida. But last year it was separated from the state's other four tournaments when bumped to the very end of April, and in 2020 it was canceled because of the pandemic. Now, the Valspar is back where it was situated in 2019 as the anchor of the Florida Swing. Considering that it's coming right after two loaded fields at the Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS Championship, and just ahead of the WGC-Match Play -- which is an exact replica of the 2019 schedule -- this 144-man contingent is actually pretty strong, especially at the top.
Five of the top-10 in the world, 10 of the top-25 and 18 of the top-50 are entered, led by world No. 2 Collin Morikawa, No. 3 Viktor Hovland, No. 8 Justin Thomas, No. 9 Xander Schauffele, No. 10 Dustin Johnson and defending champion Sam Burns, who is ranked 17th. Other names of note included Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry Jason Day, Bubba Watson and rising fan favorite Sahith Theegala. The tournament even avoided a mass exodus after the brutal conditions that necessitated a Monday finish at TPC Sawgrass. Two-time champion Paul Casey and Joaquin Niemann did pull out, but all the top-10 guys stayed put. It is impossible to predict how the golfers who endured five hellish days at Ponte Vedra Beach will respond here this week, but if deciding between two guys, maybe lean toward a guy who missed the cut or at the least didn't play Bay Hill the week before.
As we've seen throughout the Florida Swing, all the courses are brutes, and this week is no different. Copperhead was the sixth-hardest course on Tour in both 2018 and 2019, when Casey's winning scores were 10- and 8-under. Charl Schwartzel won in 2016 at 4-under. Last year was different, as Burns won his first title at 17-under, though still only seven guys reached double figures. Copperhead ranked as the 20th hardest course of the year. The lower scores may have been the result of the tournament moving more than a month into warmer weather of late April/early May. On the other hand in March in 2017, the year before Casey began his back-to-back run, Adam Hadwin won at 14-under. So, it's a little hard to forecast where the winning score will fall.
Copperhead, the only course the tournament has ever known since arriving in 2000, is not your traditional Florida track. The 1971 Larry Packard design is extremely narrow and tree-lined with numerous dog legs and plenty of undulations and is situated on the west coast of the state by the Gulf of Mexico. It's also an oddity for a par-71 in that there are five par-3s and four par-5s. But even with all those par-5s, the Valspar traditionally ranked near the bottom in birdies and eagles (last year excluded). Par is a good score on most holes. Long iron play, along with scrambling and putting inside 10 feet, rule the roost here. The greens are bermudagrass overseeded with poa and are moderate in size, averaging about 5,800 square feet. There are 74 bunkers and water on half the holes. Last year, the fairways were not overseeded because of the later date of the tournament. This year, they have been, according to the official Golf Course Superintendents Association of America (GCSAA) sheet.
Not to be outdone by other courses with cute little nicknames for their hard holes, Copperhead features the famed Snake Pit, a three-hole sequence that is one of the toughest closing stretches in golf. It begins with the hardest hole on the course, the 475-yard 16th with water on the entire right side and where there were more than 110 bogeys or worse last year. It's followed by the long 215-yard 17th and the 445-yard 18th. They all play over par and, if the golfers aren't careful, way over par. At the opposite end of the course is the easiest hole, the 560-yard 1st that is the shortest of the par-5s. So don't get too excited if your guy gets an opening birdie (but do fret if he doesn't). Last year, Burns played that hole in 6-under -- two eagles and two birdies -- and the par-5s in a collective 15-under, picking up just two strokes on all the other holes combined.
Burns, along with runner-up Keegan Bradley, set the tournament's 36- and 54-hole scoring records last year at 130 and 199. They remained tied through 12 holes on Sunday before a fatal double bogey by Bradley when he found the water on the par-3 13th. Burns won comfortably by three strokes.
Weather-wise, the golfers should face much more favorable conditions than last week -- the last two weeks, really. Temperatures will be in the 80s all week, with the only significant chance of rain coming on Saturday. The wind right now is forecast to be light to moderate.
Fun Innisbrook factoid: Courtesy of the 2021 GCSAA sheet, we learned that "Wildlife on course includes raccoons, bald eagles, coyotes, fox squirrel (unique at Innisbrook), alligators, turtles, snakes." Of course, snakes.
Interesting Innisbrook factoid: One of the assistant course superintendents is Andriy Maksymiv, who immigrated from Ukraine "not knowing English and has worked his way up the ladder," according to the GCSAA sheet. In light of the on-going conflict in Ukraine, there's a good chance NBC shines a light on Maksymiv.
Key Stats to Winning at Copperhead
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation (175-200 yards)
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting/Putting Inside 10 Feet
• Bogey Avoidance
Past Champions
2021 – Sam Burns
2020 – None
2019 – Paul Casey
2018 – Paul Casey
2017 – Adam Hadwin
2016 - Charl Schwartzel
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – John Senden
2013 – Kevin Streelman
2012 – Luke Donald
Champion's Profile
If ever there was a tournament where shorter hitters can prosper, this is it. Just look above at the past nine champions. Only Burns and Woodland would be considered long hitters. Copperhead may technically be long at more than 7,300 yards for a par-71. But there are a bunch of dog legs to stifle distance, not to mention five par-3s (Interestingly, the course considers its signature hole to be the 590-yard, double-dog-leg 14th, not one of the Snake Pit trio). We're looking at quality long iron players who are happy to play it safe. Casey and Hadwin are Exhibits 1 and 1A. This is one of the hardest tracks for greens in regulation, which brings scrambling into play. And more often than not, great putting has translated into success at Copperhead, especially from inside 10 feet. Casey is not a great putter but, combined with his tee-to-green expertise, he's obviously good enough. In 2019, we did see some big hitters creep onto the first page of the leaderboard -- Jason Kokrak, Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson -- and even Casey kicked into a near gear, ranking 11th in driving distance at 306 yards. He was also fifth in greens in regulation, seventh in SG: Approach and first in SG: Tee-to-Green. That allowed him to repeat despite ranking only 43rd in the field in SG: Putting. Last year, Burns put on a putting show, missing only two putts inside 10 feet all week. Of the top-15 on the leaderboard, nine of them ranked in the top-12 in SG: Putting. Burns putted so well that he was able to win depite ranking only 35th in greens in regulation. That won't happen often.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Justin Thomas - $11,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1000)
Thomas did endure the grueling five days at TPC Sawgrass, but he didn't play the week before in another tournament with some difficult conditions at Bay Hill. He even skipped the Honda before that. So he should be able to recover from his mediocre T33 at THE PLAYERS in time for the Valspar, where he historically has shined. Thomas tied for 13th last year and has another top-10 and top-20 in 2015-16. He is ranked second on Tour in bogey avoidance and was coming off a couple of top-10s out West before Sawgrass.
Collin Morikawa - $10,700 (+1200)
Of the 10 guys in the $9500 and up range, only two missed the cut at THE PLAYERS, as they were caught on the bad side of the draw: Morikawa and Xander Schauffele. Morikawa has never played the Valspar Championship but his skill set is well suited for Copperhead. He is top-15 in every SG category outside of Around-the-Green, and he checks in fifth in bogey avoidance.
Louis Oosthuizen - $9,900 (+1600)
Oosthuizen comes back to Innisbrook almost every year, and why not? He finished top-8 in three of his past four visits, with the fourth being a tie for 16th. His elite putting has dropped off from last season, but he's driving the ball maybe as well as ever, ranking 14th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's coming off made cuts at both the Honda and PLAYERS.
Shane Lowry - $9,700 (+3000)
Lowry has been on a heater going back to last year, running off six straight top-25s, including a T13 at THE PLAYERS that followed his runner-up at the Honda. Every part of his game is clicking except maybe scrambling but even that is decent -- he's ranked 45th on Tour. He's even top-15 in SG: Putting, and he's also 15th in bogey avoidance. Lowry has played the Valspar only once, tying for 49th in 2018.
Tier 2 Values
Sam Burns - $9,600 (+1800)
Sure, Burns faded badly on Monday when he had a real shot to win at TPC Sawgrass. Maybe he ran out of gas in a 4-over 76 that dropped him all the way out of the top-25. But we feel that Burns arriving at the site of his breakthrough PGA Tour win last year will be energizing and, Monday aside, has been playing well of late after a mini-slump earlier this year. Even with Monday's round, Burns ranks eighth on Tour in bogey avoidance.
Jason Kokrak - $9,200 (+2500)
Kokrak does not have so much as a top-15 since winning in Houston late last year. But he has been on the periphery of good weeks, just missing top-25s at both Riviera and PGA National. And now comes another tough track where he's excelled. Kokrak has top-10s here in three of the past six years, including a runner-up in 2019, and was T13 last year. His putting remains strong this year and he's top-10 on Tour in bogey avoidance.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,000 (+2500)
Fitzpatrick has played this course only once, missing the cut four years ago. He was riding three straight top-10s before missing the cut at THE PLAYERS. Fitzpatrick is ranked top-40 in every strokes-gained category, a real rarity on Tour. He's 10th in the all-important Tee-to-Green.
Russell Knox - $8,100 (+7000)
Knox is coming off a fantastic week at THE PLAYERS, a tie for sixth, amid a great start to 2022. He has made the cut in six of his seven starts, and he can thank his sterling iron play. He is second on Tour in greens in regulation and 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Knox did not play Bay Hill the week before Sawgrass, but this is still a bit of a gamble to see how fresh Knox will be.
Tier 3 Values
Cameron Tringale - $8,000 (+6500)
Tringale has had, shall we say, a diverse history here at Copperhead: nine starts, four missed cuts but also four top-25s, including a pair of T3s, including last year. He's coming off two missed cuts at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, but we'll give him a pass on the latter. Tringale's stats are largely decent across the board, ranking 40th in SG: Approach, 33rd in Around-the-Green and 59th in Tee-to-Green.
Mackenzie Hughes - $7,800 (+7000)
Whenever things have the potential to turn into a putting contest, we always give Hughes a look. He's ranked 16th in SG: Putting and 23rd from inside 10 feet. He's sandwiched a tie for 13th here in 2019 around a pair of missed cuts.
Lanto Griffin - $7,400 (+11000)
Griffin hadn't missed a cut since early October before succumbing to the conditions at TPC Sawgrass. He's got better-than-average SG numbers across the board excluding Around-the-Green. He's top-50 in both Approach and Putting. Griffin missed the cut in his Valspar debut a year ago.
Nick Taylor - $7,300 (+11000)
Taylor somehow didn't qualify for THE PLAYERS, but he's having a terrific 2022, making five of six cuts with two top-20s, including at the Honda. He also finished 32nd at Bay Hill. Taylor has made three of six cuts at Copperhead through the years, and two of them resulted in top-25s, including in 2019. He's ranked 75th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 65th in bogey avoidance.
Long-Shot Values
Vaughn Taylor - $6,700 (+25000)
Taylor has made all four of his cuts in 2022 after an injury-shortened 2021. One of them was even at the difficult PGA National track. And Taylor has played very well here the past two editions -- sixth last year and 18th in 2019. Taylor is ranked a very good 38th on tour in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Adam Schenk - $6,700 (+35000)
We turned to Schenk a couple of weeks back at Bay Hill when he was $6,100 and he made the cut. Now his price has jumped almost 10 percent. Talk about inflation. Schenk missed the cut at THE PLAYERS, but he's just a better golfer than he's been showing. He's inside the top-200 in the world rankings. The two cuts he made in 2022 were at tough tracks -- Torrey Pines and Bay Hill. He's ranked 45th on Tour in putting.
Danny Lee - $6,600 (+18000)
Lee had a mini-run going with a top-25 at Riviera and a made cut at Bay Hill before he withdrew late in the second round at THE PLAYERS in advance of a missed cut. That's what you sign up for with Lee -- the potential for a good week but also more than his share of WDs. He's even had one at the Valspar. But he's otherwise made four of six cuts and finished T21 a year ago.
Martin Trainer - $6,000 (+80000)
There's no way to sugarcoat it: Trainer's stats are awful, his results are also awful. He had made only two of his first 11 cuts this season. But last month, Trainer switched clubs to Wilson and quickly put together back-to-back made cuts at both Phoenix and PGA National (before a bad MC at Puerto Rico). He's actually a great putter, ranked 12th on Tour. So even though he's missed two cuts in two tries at Innisbrook, we see a little value, wondering why Trainer is $6,000 and not, say, $6,200 or $6,300.
