Weekly PGA Preview: The Open Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Open Championship

Royal Troon
Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland

The PGA Tour heads to Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland this week for another edition of the Open Championship.

As we approach the final major of 2024, the storylines are much the same as they were prior to every major this year, with the exception of one. That exception is Bryson DeChambeau's quest to win consecutive majors. DeChambeau, who has carried the torch singlehandedly for LIV all season, will look to continue his great play in the majors this season by picking up his third major and first Open Championship. In his way, as always, will be the best player on the planet, Scottie Scheffler, who will also be looking for his first Open Championship. Scheffler is always the most intriguing storyline for me because his dominance is something we haven't seen since the early 2000s and the inevitability of him winning almost every week is fascinating. Beyond those two storylines, we have an angle that we've dealt with for a decade now and that's Rory McIlroy and his quest for his 5th major. This week that storyline gets a boost because we are coming off a U.S. Open where McIlroy had his fifth major in hand, only to lose it very late in his round. All three of these guys can win this week and all would make for a good story, but none would be better than McIlroy finally emerging victorious at the end of a major.                                               

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Tuesday.                   

LAST TIME

Brian Harman shot a final round 70 on his way to a six-stroke victory over four players, including Jon Rahm and Tom Kim.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (9-2) 

To no one's surprise, once again we've got ridiculously low odds on Scheffler to win this week. It makes no sense to pick against Scheffler at this point, but are we getting enough value at 9-2? My main concern is that this is the Open Championship, the one major that brings a decent amount of luck into play and it's hard to avoid the bad breaks, no matter how good you are. With that said, he's still the clear favorite, but I'd probably pass at this number and wait to see if I could get something a little higher after the event has started. 

Rory McIlroy (17-2)

There are only two players in single digits this week, which is a bit of a statement from the odds makers. While many observers would have Scheffler in his own group, the odds makers are essentially stating that it's Scheffler and McIlroy in one group and everyone else after that. While I do think McIlroy has a good chance to win, I wouldn't put him in Scheffler's class only because if Scheffler gets a lead on Sunday, he's probably winning, while McIlroy is probably not winning. That's not to say that McIlroy can't win, it only means that even if he has a lead on Sunday, his track record over the past decade would suggest that he still won't win.           

Ludvig Aberg (16-1)

This is an interesting selection as the third-favorite. Perhaps these odds are a reflection of talent and not that of accomplishment or mental toughness. I don't want to stamp Aberg as someone who's not mentally tough, but we've seen some cracks from him in the final round over the past couple months and that would concern me if I had him to win. The cracks are more likely than not due to a lack of experience, after all, it's pretty rare for anyone to just blow through a major with no issues right away. It's generally a process and Aberg is simply going through that process now. He'll get his, no doubt, but I'm not sure he's there yet.                  

THE NEXT TIER

Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)

Before I move on, I need to point out that the way the odds were constructed this week, it didn't really allow to me pick Morikawa, Schauffele and DeChambeau as they were all around 16-1, leaving them out of the "middle tier". As for Fleetwood, he's had a knack for playing well at this event over the years and he comes into this week under the radar because so much focus is on Scheffler and McIlroy. Fleetwood did miss the cut here in 2016, but he's just simply a better golfer now that he was back then.   

Brooks Koepka (35-1)    

I have a feeling that someone else, other than DeChambeau is going to step up from the LIV tour this week and my money is on Koepka. There was a lot of steam on Koepka entering the first three majors of the year, but after underperforming at each, the talk has seemingly faded. That's often when golfers play their best though, when everyone is looking the other way. Koepka may not do anything this week and this season of majors would then be a complete disappointment, but there's also a chance he brings his "major" form and is part of the mix. At this price, he's certainly worth a look. 

Robert MacIntyre (45-1)

I'm placing MacIntyre in this spot with the full realization that a missed cut this is just as likely as a strong finish, but what if his heater continues? MacIntyre has seemingly come out of nowhere this year, but those that follow the game closely know that he's been a pretty solid player for years. His breakthrough win on the PGA Tour this past month may have opened the floodgates as he finally captured his home country's Open this past week. If he can come down from that high, perhaps he can continue his fine play. 

LONG SHOTS

Patrick Cantlay (45-1)    

Some guys get longshot odds because they haven't won before or don't know how to win. Others get longshot odds because their game has fallen off a bit. Cantlay falls into the latter category, but the state of his game has only fallen off temporarily and there have been signs over the past couple months that he might be ready to win again. Cantlay is as talented as just about anyone in the field, but for some reason he's been unable to put things together this year. His track record at this event isn't great, but he's had a couple good showings. It's a longshot that he'll turn it all the way around, but that's why we're getting 45-1 on a talent like this.                     

Adam Scott (70-1)          

Links-style golf can often be a great equalizer for those that aren't quite as long as they once were, or just quite as sharp in general. We've seen many older players throughout the years make runs at the Open Championship, and while Scott is not ready for retirement quite yet, he's certainly not the player he once was. With that said, he almost won this past weekend in Scotland, so there appears to be something left in the tank and if he carries the form from this past week, into this week, then he's certainly capable of winning another major.                         

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Rory McIlroy - I mentioned this past week that at this time of the season, it's tough to gauge the availability of top players in OAD leagues, but for those that still have McIlroy remaining, this is the obvious spot to deploy him. Of all the possible scenarios this week, McIlroy playing poorly seems the most unlikely. He may not win, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't play well.                            

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Tommy Fleetwood - If you're just off the lead and want to find a guy with high upside and a high floor as well, Fleetwood could be your guy. As I mentioned earlier, winning a major is often a process and most guys have to pay their dues before breaking though. Well, Fleetwood has certainly paid his dues, having come close on a number of occasions. What I like most about him this week is his consistency at this event over the past five years.                    

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Adam Scott - Scott almost won this past week, which if you were hoping he'd stay under the radar is bad, but when you think about it, most OAD players don't want to go this far down the list at a major, so I highly doubt he'll be a popular play. If you need to make up ground, Scott has the upside that could propel you up the standings.                  

Buyer Beware: Jon Rahm - This isn't low-hanging fruit. I know Rahm has played poorly at the majors this season, but he's always a threat to win. This pick is based on those that expect Rahm to come through because he's due to play well. While that might be true, this isn't baseball when most players regress to the mean within a season. More often than not, when a player is having a bad season, they need the off season to get things corrected, which is what I'm expecting from Rahm.                 

This Week: Adam Scott - You think I would have learned my lesson after all these years, but time and time again, I let my position in the standings dictate my pick and I miss out on winners because of it. This was the case last week when I chose Harman over MacIntyre because I was cure MacIntyre would be popular. I'll do my best to just stick with the best play going forward...starting next year. As for this season, there is still time to make a move and with that in mind, I have to go with a longshot in Adam Scott. If I weren't in a such a desperate situation, I'd likely go with Fleetwood, or perhaps Tony Finau.        

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range:  Rory McIlroy ($12,000) 
Middle Range: Tommy Fleetwood ($10,800) 
Lower Range:  Tom McKibbin ($8,400)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Tommy Fleetwood - MacIntyre was my pick in this spot last week, which makes me wonder how well I'd be doing if I had used my survivor picks for my OAD selections this year because I feel like this has happened a few times this season, where my survivor pick outplayed my OAD pick. Anyhow, Fleetwood is the play here, this is his best major historically and he's in good form this season. I'm not bothered that he missed the cut here in 2016 either. Fleetwood is pretty reliable in the majors, which is something you need in this format.