Weekly PGA Preview: THE PLAYERS Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

The PGA Tour heads north to TPC Sawgrass for the latest edition of golf's "fifth major" -- THE PLAYERS Championship.

What looked like a very bleak picture for the PGA Tour just a week ago is suddenly a lot brighter, as the world seems to be back to normal with Scottie Scheffler in the winner's circle and several top players seemingly finding their form. Well, maybe not quite their best form, but closer than they were a week ago.

While we have all that going for us, it might be gone in the blink of an eye, because TPC Sawgrass plays no favorites and can even take down the top players. Without going into too much detail, I'll say this: It's a very difficult course to master and a tough spot to find a groove in year after year. This is why we've never had back-to-back winners and why track records here are pretty scattered. Some weeks we get a bunch of guys with steady and strong course history, but this is not one of them. Some players have had some level of consistency, but no one is truly safe, which makes it tough to identify both a winner and even someone to make the cut. Fortunately, with all the talent on hand there is no shortage of options to consider.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:30 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler shot a final-round 69 on his way to a five-stroke victory over Tyrrell Hatton.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (11-2)

I have many thoughts on this number. My first thought is that price is crazy for anyone on this course. That thought is followed by another which is, if Scheffler really has figured out his putter, it could be lights-out for the rest of the PGA Tour. That's not hyperbole either, he's so much better than everyone else with his ball striking, that he truly is just a decent putter away from winning almost every week. However, I'll need to see some more evidence that he can putt like he did this past week before placing money on him at these odds.

Rory McIlroy (14-1)

We've yet to see McIlroy's best on the PGA Tour this season, but as always, it's just around the corner. Whether his game sprouts this week or not is the question, and this is actually one of the better prices you'll see on him this season, so he's worth a look, but in the end, I think I'll pass as he hasn't shown his top form in recent weeks and like everyone else here, his track record is all over the place.

Viktor Hovland (25-1)

Scheffler's price has created a lot of value on down the line and one of the beneficiaries is Hovland, who doesn't often see a price this high. Hovland was lights-out to close this past season, but he's yet to find that form this season. With that said, he's never that far off and he'll hit his stride soon. He's also played well here the past two years, finishing T3 this past year and T9 the year prior.

THE NEXT TIER

Justin Thomas (25-1)

Thomas is among a small group of players that has actually shown some consistency on this course over the years. He's made it to the weekend in each of his eight starts here and he won this event in 2021. The problem here is that his game hasn't been great for a while now. He's seemingly out of his prolonged slump, but we haven't seen the old Thomas in a while and that's the guy we need to see if he's to win this week.

Sam Burns (30-1)

As you can tell, I'm playing very conservative this week as I'm not expecting a surprise winner. Burns doesn't have the high-end finishes here that you'd like to see, but he has played fairly well here in two of three starts. More importantly, he's been flashing the form recently that saw him win multiple events on the PGA Tour.

Will Zalatoris (33-1)

It's funny how quickly we forget how we viewed Zalatoris prior to his injury this past year. Zalatoris was on a similar path as Scheffler a couple years ago, but unlike Scheffler, Zalatoris couldn't close the deal. After missing a lot of time this past year, he was somewhat forgotten, but we got a glimpse of his talent this past week. It's only a matter of time before he gets back to where he was prior to his injury.

LONG SHOTS

Hideki Matsuyama (40-1)

Matsuyama's track record here brings him into play, as he finished solo fifth here in 2023 and has a total of six top-25s in eight starts here. He's also playing really well this season, so everything seems to be lining up for a quality appearance.

Wyndham Clark (55-1)

I mentioned this past week that Clark just doesn't get a lot of respect from the oddsmakers or the betting public and once again, he's way down the list here. He was 50-1 this past week and his odds are higher this time around? Clark is headed to bigger things, and it won't be long before you can't get anything better than 20-1 on him. His track record here is likely keeping his price inflated, but he turned a corner just this past year, so I'm not putting too much stock into his pre-2023 results.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Scottie Scheffler - Scheffler wasn't quite as popular this past week as I thought he would be, but for those that didn't take him this past week, you can bet that he'll be extremely popular. This is the biggest purse of the season and while this event is often hard to predict, it'll be tough to get away from Scheffler.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Justin Thomas - Thomas is not the player right now that he was a few years ago, but it's way too early to say that his decline is permanent. I bring that up because JT is no longer in the group of players that you'd save for the majors, which opens him up here. The question is, can you trust JT with the biggest purse of the year on the line?

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - The reason that OAD players might not use JT (the purse is too much to risk on a guy who is not top-5 right now) is the same reason that Matsuyama is likely to fly under the radar. It would be a mistake to completely discount Matsuyama for that reason however as is track record here is solid and his current form is strong.

Buyer Beware: Xander Schauffele - Can I just say that I'm not feeling Schauffele this wad? The odds list came out and I saw him at 20-1 and I just wasn't feeling it. I think I'm just tired of waiting for Schauffele to take the next step and while the next step for him is a major and he can't take that step this week anyway, a win this week would certainly bolster his resume, but I don't see that happening.

This Week: Scottie Scheffler - I really hate to make this move knowing that his ownership is going to be really high, but I can't pass up the opportunity to bank $4.5 million when he's putting this well. I also have to factor in that though this is a strong field, the fields at all four majors will be stronger, so his chances of winning those weeks will be lower.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($12,000)
Middle Range: Will Zalatoris ($10,700)
Lower Range: Tom Hoge ($9,100)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Justin Thomas - Wouldn't you know it, I'm one win away from double digits and here comes the hardest survivor pick of the season. I could go Scheffler here, but he's too important to use outside of a major and honestly, I feel very comfortable with Thomas making the cut this week, so I'm going to save Scheffler. Thomas has not missed a cut here and his form is certainly good enough to keep that streak going.

Previous Results